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Author Topic: 1 trillion people in the future  (Read 16378 times)

Grimshot

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Re: 1 trillion people in the future
« Reply #60 on: August 02, 2011, 05:18:28 pm »

We will probably need to limit the amount of children people can have though. Assuming of course that no plagues, wars, or other disasters keep human population in check.
Not necessary. Child limitation laws only really serve to abuse human rights, populations stabilize on their own once they hit the end of the J-curve in all species, including humans. You can see this in Europe, which has no child limit laws, but has almost no population growth. In some regions, the population is actually going down.

 Hmm, I guess I'm going to have to agree with you. You're probably more informed on that subject then I am atm. I should read up on population growth later when I have more free time.
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counting

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Re: 1 trillion people in the future
« Reply #61 on: August 02, 2011, 05:22:33 pm »

People lived in the Western world tend to forget the entire Europe + North American population is about 1 billion only 1/7 of the entire human population (no even match the population of China alone). Major population on Earth lived in Asia. (Especially East and South Asia, like China and India). And major population growth concentrate in Nigeria, Pakistan, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Brazil, India. Even China has positive population growth of using the birth control policy for so long. As long as these countries maintain their population growth, and immigrate the excessive population to wealthy country, there is good chance total human population growth rate will maintain for several decades. (Today it's still 1% annually over all)

And earth surface is still quite empty. And productivity can catchup in the coming decades. By most statistics, it tells us agriculture land is still plenty. (Many lands are simply idle and not used for maximize production, or used for pasture only)
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Bouchart

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Re: 1 trillion people in the future
« Reply #62 on: August 02, 2011, 05:55:24 pm »

The only population growth in the Western world is due to immigration from the third world.  As the relative wealth of the third world rises population growth will slow down.  I believe current projections show population growth to level off and possibly decrease at around 9 billion people in 2050.
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Dsarker

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Re: 1 trillion people in the future
« Reply #63 on: August 02, 2011, 05:59:35 pm »

I have read a report somewhere (and don't ask me where or how to source it, because it was at least five years ago. I'm lucky if I remember one...) that said something like we could fit the entire population into a small part of North America, and give everyone a metre personal space. If someone else remembers what this is from/is able to disprove it/wants to shout at me for believing stuff on the internet, dangit/wants to type in random gibberish, would they be able to remind/correct me?
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MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: 1 trillion people in the future
« Reply #64 on: August 02, 2011, 06:03:27 pm »

As I heard it, we can fit everyone on Earth comfortably in Los Angeles, and packed like sardines on the Isle of Man. Or something like that.
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Heron TSG

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Re: 1 trillion people in the future
« Reply #65 on: August 02, 2011, 06:04:43 pm »

Yeah, but that doesn't really have any bearing on the fact that living space is at a premium, not just room to exist.
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Dsarker

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Re: 1 trillion people in the future
« Reply #66 on: August 02, 2011, 06:08:23 pm »

Probably something like that. I've also read a science fiction book (in the days where there was some science with the fiction...) that basically estimated that the maximum population on Earth, assuming high efficiency food supplies, could be something like three trillion people (due to the amount of animals living on the earth or something like that.). I'll find it, because it was actually quite a fun read.


Edit: can't find the story. Was an Isaac Asimov, and I believe in his short story collection "Buy Jupiter".
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counting

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Re: 1 trillion people in the future
« Reply #67 on: August 02, 2011, 06:16:57 pm »

I have read a report somewhere (and don't ask me where or how to source it, because it was at least five years ago. I'm lucky if I remember one...) that said something like we could fit the entire population into a small part of North America, and give everyone a metre personal space. If someone else remembers what this is from/is able to disprove it/wants to shout at me for believing stuff on the internet, dangit/wants to type in random gibberish, would they be able to remind/correct me?

The entire population of the world is 7 billion. And the square footage of Texas is is 268,581 square miles, so each one has about 1,000 square feet. Not that tie.

And the correlation between wealth(individual income) and population growth is not that direct. Or perhaps it's the opposite of cause and effect that due to some reason a country that can control population and already reach its peak development will be more wealthy per person, since the GDP/population means with less population and high production, each individual has higher income. One may contest that it's the population density and productivity combined factors are main reasons affect the population growth more.

Probably something like that. I've also read a science fiction book (in the days where there was some science with the fiction...) that basically estimated that the maximum population on Earth, assuming high efficiency food supplies, could be something like three trillion people (due to the amount of animals living on the earth or something like that.). I'll find it, because it was actually quite a fun read.


Edit: can't find the story. Was an Isaac Asimov, and I believe in his short story collection "Buy Jupiter".

Buy Jupiter and Other Stories - 2430 A.D.
And it's not 3 trillion people, it's 15 trillion. No animal life, just human.
« Last Edit: August 02, 2011, 06:50:01 pm by counting »
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Re: 1 trillion people in the future
« Reply #68 on: August 02, 2011, 07:07:27 pm »

Probably something like that. I've also read a science fiction book (in the days where there was some science with the fiction...) that basically estimated that the maximum population on Earth, assuming high efficiency food supplies, could be something like three trillion people (due to the amount of animals living on the earth or something like that.). I'll find it, because it was actually quite a fun read.


Edit: can't find the story. Was an Isaac Asimov, and I believe in his short story collection "Buy Jupiter".
I think Trantor (the capital of the galaxy in the Empire and Foundation series) held some 40 billion at its peak.
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Lord Shonus

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Re: 1 trillion people in the future
« Reply #69 on: August 02, 2011, 07:11:20 pm »

Asimov later admitted that he underestimated Trantor's population capacity by several orders of magnitute, given the population density shown in the books.
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Dsarker

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Re: 1 trillion people in the future
« Reply #70 on: August 02, 2011, 07:14:21 pm »

I have read a report somewhere (and don't ask me where or how to source it, because it was at least five years ago. I'm lucky if I remember one...) that said something like we could fit the entire population into a small part of North America, and give everyone a metre personal space. If someone else remembers what this is from/is able to disprove it/wants to shout at me for believing stuff on the internet, dangit/wants to type in random gibberish, would they be able to remind/correct me?

The entire population of the world is 7 billion. And the square footage of Texas is is 268,581 square miles, so each one has about 1,000 square feet. Not that tie.

And the correlation between wealth(individual income) and population growth is not that direct. Or perhaps it's the opposite of cause and effect that due to some reason a country that can control population and already reach its peak development will be more wealthy per person, since the GDP/population means with less population and high production, each individual has higher income. One may contest that it's the population density and productivity combined factors are main reasons affect the population growth more.

Probably something like that. I've also read a science fiction book (in the days where there was some science with the fiction...) that basically estimated that the maximum population on Earth, assuming high efficiency food supplies, could be something like three trillion people (due to the amount of animals living on the earth or something like that.). I'll find it, because it was actually quite a fun read.


Edit: can't find the story. Was an Isaac Asimov, and I believe in his short story collection "Buy Jupiter".

Buy Jupiter and Other Stories - 2430 A.D.
And it's not 3 trillion people, it's 15 trillion. No animal life, just human.


Thank you! And yes, that was exactly the one I meant.
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Heron TSG

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Re: 1 trillion people in the future
« Reply #71 on: August 02, 2011, 07:38:21 pm »

Yeah, city-worlds like Trantor or Coruscant would hold trillions of people. Perhaps quadrillions, assuming that just as in the books food is either shipped in or grown indoors.
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Re: 1 trillion people in the future
« Reply #72 on: August 02, 2011, 08:15:15 pm »

Asimov's idea of "microorganism farms", and making food from giant tanks of microbes is very interesting. And he described that it can be processed to taste like anything. I think it's like DF's super productive underground farming.
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Currency is not excessive, but a necessity.
The stark assumption:
Individuals trade with each other only through the intermediation of specialist traders called: shops.
Nelson and Winter:
The challenge to an evolutionary formation is this: it must provide an analysis that at least comes close to matching the power of the neoclassical theory to predict and illuminate the macro-economic patterns of growth

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Re: 1 trillion people in the future
« Reply #73 on: August 02, 2011, 08:31:26 pm »

Yeah, city-worlds like Trantor or Coruscant would hold trillions of people. Perhaps quadrillions, assuming that just as in the books food is either shipped in or grown indoors.
On the other hand, wasn't there something in Caves of Steel about how quickly the system would collapse if something really went wrong?
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Lord Shonus

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Re: 1 trillion people in the future
« Reply #74 on: August 02, 2011, 08:35:03 pm »

It was in Foundation, actually. Trantor was so dependant on food imports that, by the time of the Mule, only a few thousand people lived there.
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