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Author Topic: The debt ceilling  (Read 40231 times)

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Re: The debt ceilling
« Reply #450 on: August 04, 2011, 01:20:35 pm »

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« Last Edit: August 04, 2011, 02:12:27 pm by counting »
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Currency is not excessive, but a necessity.
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Individuals trade with each other only through the intermediation of specialist traders called: shops.
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The challenge to an evolutionary formation is this: it must provide an analysis that at least comes close to matching the power of the neoclassical theory to predict and illuminate the macro-economic patterns of growth

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Re: The debt ceilling
« Reply #451 on: August 04, 2011, 01:58:52 pm »

It's difficult to tax some property when you don't even know how much it worth exactly. But in some country some form of this "unrealized" capital gain does get taxed. It often companies with an "official announced value of properties" updated every year. So it will form a base for taxation. But it's been arguing that it is linked to central planning economy (government has enormous control over the property value), and the official value is just constantly under the real market value. Which is reasonable, if it's higher than market value, it will actually violate the fundamental principle of VAT. However what's found in practice is that the official vale often becomes not underestimating a little, but a lot. For the taxation to be able to put into effect.

But the real "unrealized capital gain" and its vale is defined under current terms. And the definition of unrealized capital actually evolved overtime, and changed a lot in recent years. I'll put it into explain in the following paragraph.

I don't see the point in taxing unrealized capital gain. It's not a gain until you actually sell the shares.
Tax the companies and the income. Tax the bank as well if you must and tax the transactions.
Taxing unrealized capital seems weird, as there is not actual gain there.

And I tell that as someone who actually have some shares. Until you sell them, you only get the dividends (and they are taxed), and wind. You never know if the value will drop next month, and if they do, all the gain before are for naught.

Some people will view taxing "unrealized capital gain" as "wealth tax". (Why I first classified it into wealth tax problem). You may feel it's more like tax base on the actual wealth of property, then simply it's add-on value (involving risk). The problem here is that some form of modern "properties" like the company shares or government bonds become high liquidity themselves in recent decades. These property can be exchanged into "money" (sell/buy) almost any time and yield little or no loss (Derivative built on top of them). So although it's value is uncertain when not realized, but the market actually has pretty good assessment over them. (Uncertainty about them is transferred to other investors in derivative market, so the one who actually exchanges them will always get an insurgence about how much one will get/lose.)

Although it's a fairly new economic tools and concepts. But think about that "money" in modern form of fiat money is actually a derivative as well. They are notes issued to represent the actual physical commodity money in the past. And when people realized that they can exchange them as easy and as effective as "hard coins". People accepted it as the foundation of exchange. And your "unrealized debt" can be paid by this "unrealized note", instead of real coins. And put into modern society in swaps, that the contract of unrealized debt becomes standardized on derivative market, and you can actually using them as a unit of purchase. (Companies already using shares swap when merging and purchasing)

So maybe not today, since most people can't accept this (or even understand), but one day it maybe a norm in the future. Think of it if you are in 17th century, that people only view coins as real money, and the tax is paid via real coins, and when someone possessed and earned a lot of bank notes via investment into it, and never left much coins in possession. It will feel strange to modern people that he shall not be taxed with the add-on bank notes (fiat money) he earned. This is a view very different from a top-down approach many countries put into practice when collecting unrealized capital gain tax, but the faith of the "unrealized capitals" will changed over time from bottom-up into the next level of "foundation in exchange".
« Last Edit: August 04, 2011, 02:18:38 pm by counting »
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Currency is not excessive, but a necessity.
The stark assumption:
Individuals trade with each other only through the intermediation of specialist traders called: shops.
Nelson and Winter:
The challenge to an evolutionary formation is this: it must provide an analysis that at least comes close to matching the power of the neoclassical theory to predict and illuminate the macro-economic patterns of growth

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Re: The debt ceilling
« Reply #452 on: August 04, 2011, 02:33:00 pm »

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stocks-slump-as-economic-apf-169769799.html?x=0

Yay. Thanks to the manufactured crisis, the markets continue to fall and impede our economic recovery.
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Re: The debt ceilling
« Reply #453 on: August 04, 2011, 02:42:39 pm »

Is this infographic correct?
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Re: The debt ceilling
« Reply #454 on: August 04, 2011, 02:45:29 pm »

I believe it is.
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Re: The debt ceilling
« Reply #455 on: August 04, 2011, 02:58:49 pm »

Essentially, we have reached a point where the only way to overcome "Fuck the other guy, no matter how reasonable he may be" is by locking them both in a room rigged to explode shortly, and giving each of them half the key.

Although, in my opinion, only one of the guys in question is so far locked into this mindset that it's become this much of a problem.
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Re: The debt ceilling
« Reply #456 on: August 04, 2011, 03:04:25 pm »

They'd get in a fight over who gets to unlock the door.
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Re: The debt ceilling
« Reply #457 on: August 04, 2011, 03:04:39 pm »

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stocks-slump-as-economic-apf-169769799.html?x=0

Yay. Thanks to the manufactured crisis, the markets continue to fall and impede our economic recovery.

Well my stocks sure are in the dumps lately.  Hurry up and start your economic recovery you yankees!  ;)
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Re: The debt ceilling
« Reply #458 on: August 04, 2011, 03:06:41 pm »

Essentially, we have reached a point where the only way to overcome "Fuck the other guy, no matter how reasonable he may be" is by locking them both in a room rigged to explode shortly, and giving each of them half the key.

Hey, no fair Bauglir, you already gave me a hilarious, imaginative scenario to sig.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stocks-slump-as-economic-apf-169769799.html?x=0

Yay. Thanks to the manufactured crisis, the markets continue to fall and impede our economic recovery.

Well my stocks sure are in the dumps lately.  Hurry up and start your economic recovery you yankees!  ;)

I feel bad for you if you really are a stock trader.
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Re: The debt ceilling
« Reply #459 on: August 04, 2011, 03:08:19 pm »

I feel bad for you if you really are a stock trader.

I am, but I'm a patient one.  I'll just wait for them to go back up eventually.

Plus they are Canadian stocks, so its not 100% tied to your economy.
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Re: The debt ceilling
« Reply #460 on: August 04, 2011, 03:09:06 pm »

Essentially, we have reached a point where the only way to overcome "Fuck the other guy, no matter how reasonable he may be" is by locking them both in a room rigged to explode shortly, and giving each of them half the key.

Although, in my opinion, only one of the guys in question is so far locked into this mindset that it's become this much of a problem.

There's also the fact that the same guy (it's a schizophrenic guy for this example) is only partially afraid of blowing up.  That's honestly my biggest fear, that the main reason the Republican leadership was willing to sign off on the "trigger" cuts is that they, or at least most of their caucus, wouldn't be too upset about hitting it.  It must be said that quite a few of the new Tea Party guys are not as afraid of cutting military spending as Republicans of the past have been.

I'm still trying to figure out what's to stop Congress from just repealing or passing something that repeals the trigger?  This isn't the first time that somebody came up with a legislative "time bomb" to force the Congress into action on something, and it has before resulted in the Congress agreeing to act to simply remove the bomb.

I can't wait to see who they come up with for the committee.  The membership will be appointed by the Senate party leaders (presumably they'll be only Senators), three apiece, and they have two weeks to pick, now in the middle of recess.  I have absolutely no doubt that McConnell will send three people whose last words before entering the Chamber of Secrets will be, "I swear on my life to God and Grover Norquist, no taxes now, no taxes ever."
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Re: The debt ceilling
« Reply #461 on: August 04, 2011, 03:24:34 pm »

As I said before, that is impossible on its face. The cuts I proposed were absurd to the point of hilarity, and it still required large tax hikes to balance.
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nenjin

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Re: The debt ceilling
« Reply #462 on: August 04, 2011, 03:59:46 pm »

Quote
I'm still trying to figure out what's to stop Congress from just repealing or passing something that repeals the trigger?  This isn't the first time that somebody came up with a legislative "time bomb" to force the Congress into action on something, and it has before resulted in the Congress agreeing to act to simply remove the bomb.

It'd take some incredible hubris on members of either party to try and legislate out the trigger. And iirc, the trigger is one of the few things Republicans wanted. They may not wanted it to apply to defense (and I think it applies many other places besides defense), but the trigger was ultimately their baby I believe, not the dems. And I don't see dems trying to remove the functional legislation they nearly lost their job over.
« Last Edit: August 04, 2011, 04:34:34 pm by nenjin »
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Re: The debt ceilling
« Reply #463 on: August 04, 2011, 04:02:51 pm »

What bothers the investors more it that there is not even a "plan to balance". It's current deal is just saying it will spend less aggressively than before. The U.S. federal government will spend about 40 trillions total in the next 10 years, and only cut 2+ trillion. (The one do get cut already won't put into effect after 2012 either). Not even this agreement can be sure to hold after the 2012 election (not even certain what it will be like before the Super Congress decided until the end of this year). It essentially an announcement that "There is nothing we can do right now, but we will change somehow in the future, just giving us more time, or wait for the election". In the mean time uncertainty and debt itself just keeps piling up. Why should any clever investors feel safe under this condition?
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Currency is not excessive, but a necessity.
The stark assumption:
Individuals trade with each other only through the intermediation of specialist traders called: shops.
Nelson and Winter:
The challenge to an evolutionary formation is this: it must provide an analysis that at least comes close to matching the power of the neoclassical theory to predict and illuminate the macro-economic patterns of growth

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Re: The debt ceilling
« Reply #464 on: August 04, 2011, 04:33:51 pm »

The american 2 party system never ceases to amaze me.
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