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Author Topic: The debt ceilling  (Read 40138 times)

freeformschooler

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Re: The debt ceilling
« Reply #180 on: July 31, 2011, 10:59:58 am »

So let me get this straight. If we don't get a deal tonight, the markets will open tomorrow morning and... then what? Economic default begins?
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GlyphGryph

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Re: The debt ceilling
« Reply #181 on: July 31, 2011, 11:00:26 am »

I'd also like to correct beliefs about electoral reform being difficult constitutionally. That's a blatant lie - the constitution makes almost no mention of how elections work beyond leaving it up the states, and a bit about the electoral system (bits the states ignore anyways already, so its not like that one matters).

The system is the way it is because this is the way enough people want it, not because its actually enshrined in constitutional law.
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counting

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Re: The debt ceilling
« Reply #182 on: July 31, 2011, 11:13:44 am »

For someone lived in a "country" next to China, the scenario of voting the "red" isn't that funny and unlikely. In fact our political parties of "Blue and Green" are often citing the threat of "Red element" in election years. And I can tell you it's definitely very effective to manipulate voters. (They will say someone or some groups are "pro-China" and all Hell break lose)
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Currency is not excessive, but a necessity.
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Individuals trade with each other only through the intermediation of specialist traders called: shops.
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Phmcw

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Re: The debt ceilling
« Reply #183 on: July 31, 2011, 11:40:02 am »

We tend to use Communist as a threat, but in the other way.
"Keep the left stance or we start voting communist". I assure you it work well, especially in any kind of social protest.
It's the exact same kind of thing the tea party is doing, but the difference is that when some are threatening to vote for the nationalist if the government is not staying right enough, ou left answer by threatening to vote communist, ruining their bargain (and vice versa).
The radicalization never really occur, because few people actually want them in power, they are just mostly scapegoat.

The strikes, however, are painfully real.

(The rise of the nationalist is to put in this context however. Just as the rise of the ecologists. There are real militant, but there are a lot of voter who are just sick of traditional parties.)
« Last Edit: July 31, 2011, 11:41:52 am by Phmcw »
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Re: The debt ceilling
« Reply #184 on: July 31, 2011, 11:58:31 am »

I am watching Mcain speak, and I just lost what respect I had left for him.
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Re: The debt ceilling
« Reply #185 on: July 31, 2011, 12:25:42 pm »

Goddamn it, Congress. I won't quite be old enough to vote in the 2012 presidential elections, but hot damn am I going to unleash my votes upon them in the 2014 elections. At the 2016 elections. And all the other ones.
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Re: The debt ceilling
« Reply #186 on: July 31, 2011, 12:29:41 pm »

I think "Communism" in the formal "Free World" is such a powerful term, that it becomes too abstract to be labeled as right or left. Extreme nationalist or socialist in these countries will create a new term to label themselves.

As an example that in our little "country", since China is always the biggest threat, so communism is never going to get any support and bring out on the surface. So the extreme left as in Green, will come up with the new term as "Deep Green" to describe their political stand. But if you look into their policy like social affairs and you can tell its the same thing with different label only. And the "real Red" element will be like a 3rd party lurking in the shadow representing the boogeyman and never come to the light.

One ironic thing is the "Deep blue" is actually siding with China after they lost the election in 2004, and dramatically changed their original extreme stand as anti-Communism (In theory, the Blue and Red are still at WAR since the Chinese Civil War in 1949). It's actually promoting pro-China policies after it's winning in the general election at 2008. Some politics right? You never know who the enemy might be, and who you will be friend with.
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Currency is not excessive, but a necessity.
The stark assumption:
Individuals trade with each other only through the intermediation of specialist traders called: shops.
Nelson and Winter:
The challenge to an evolutionary formation is this: it must provide an analysis that at least comes close to matching the power of the neoclassical theory to predict and illuminate the macro-economic patterns of growth

Heron TSG

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Re: The debt ceilling
« Reply #187 on: July 31, 2011, 12:34:03 pm »

Ah, Taiwan. Yeah, that reminds me of the many times the Republicans and Democrats have swapped ideologies.
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RedKing

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Re: The debt ceilling
« Reply #188 on: July 31, 2011, 01:04:25 pm »

I think "Communism" in the formal "Free World" is such a powerful term, that it becomes too abstract to be labeled as right or left. Extreme nationalist or socialist in these countries will create a new term to label themselves.

As an example that in our little "country", since China is always the biggest threat, so communism is never going to get any support and bring out on the surface. So the extreme left as in Green, will come up with the new term as "Deep Green" to describe their political stand. But if you look into their policy like social affairs and you can tell its the same thing with different label only. And the "real Red" element will be like a 3rd party lurking in the shadow representing the boogeyman and never come to the light.

One ironic thing is the "Deep blue" is actually siding with China after they lost the election in 2004, and dramatically changed their original extreme stand as anti-Communism (In theory, the Blue and Red are still at WAR since the Chinese Civil War in 1949). It's actually promoting pro-China policies after it's winning in the general election at 2008. Some politics right? You never know who the enemy might be, and who you will be friend with.

Yeah, the turnabout with the KMT always makes me chuckle. To me, a lot of it is that the KMT founders always saw themselves as exiled Chinese, not as Taiwanese. But after a couple of generations, you had a lot more native-born Taiwanese than you did exiles. Combined with the fact that the KMT was kind of a de facto military occupation government, those two factors helped create the DPP groundswell. And then Chen Shui-bian got elected, and everybody lost their shit for a little while there.

Taiwan does have one political tradition that at this point, I'd like to see the US adopt: legislative slugfests. Turn C-SPAN into a pay-per-view, and watch the money come rolling in.
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Aklyon

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Re: The debt ceilling
« Reply #189 on: July 31, 2011, 01:06:59 pm »

But what about C-SPAN2?
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Re: The debt ceilling
« Reply #190 on: July 31, 2011, 01:12:06 pm »

(In theory, the Blue and Red are still at WAR since the Chinese Civil War in 1949)
Heh, I see TF2 everywhere these days.
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counting

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Re: The debt ceilling
« Reply #191 on: July 31, 2011, 01:25:51 pm »

Yeah, the turnabout with the KMT always makes me chuckle. To me, a lot of it is that the KMT founders always saw themselves as exiled Chinese, not as Taiwanese. But after a couple of generations, you had a lot more native-born Taiwanese than you did exiles. Combined with the fact that the KMT was kind of a de facto military occupation government, those two factors helped create the DPP groundswell. And then Chen Shui-bian got elected, and everybody lost their shit for a little while there.

Taiwan does have one political tradition that at this point, I'd like to see the US adopt: legislative slugfests. Turn C-SPAN into a pay-per-view, and watch the money come rolling in.

One of our face palmed moments in politics of Taiwan ???. They didn't quite get that political FIGHT were not supposed to be literal. But they are "improving" now. (::) not fighting skill I mean)

And our politicians are so good at changing their color, that one day you wake up you will see that all those lost the elections will rally in the color of Orange. 8) (Not kidding. Like some James Soong for 2012 election.)
« Last Edit: July 31, 2011, 01:28:58 pm by counting »
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Currency is not excessive, but a necessity.
The stark assumption:
Individuals trade with each other only through the intermediation of specialist traders called: shops.
Nelson and Winter:
The challenge to an evolutionary formation is this: it must provide an analysis that at least comes close to matching the power of the neoclassical theory to predict and illuminate the macro-economic patterns of growth

RedKing

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Re: The debt ceilling
« Reply #192 on: July 31, 2011, 01:41:48 pm »

But what about C-SPAN2?
They'll get the lower-tier State legislature matches. We all know a proper legislator should have a few years experience in the minor-leagues' before moving up to the Steel Cage of Doom Capitol.
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Vector

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Re: The debt ceilling
« Reply #193 on: July 31, 2011, 05:25:53 pm »

Would you be willing to share this secret, Vector? The internet wont tell me.

Yup.

The secret is knotted thread where the tooth used to be.  I haven't tried it myself, but apparently it works.
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Aqizzar

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Re: The debt ceilling
« Reply #194 on: July 31, 2011, 05:31:06 pm »

There is a bill being finalized in the Senate right now, "agreed" to by Harry Reid and to be voted on within a few hours.  Supposedly, it contains absolutely no language regarding revenues or taxes in any way.  This is actually a couple of agreements in one - there was some brief talk of demands that an extension or permanence of the "Bush Tax Cuts" be added to the bill, but nothing such happened.  The spending cuts that apparently everyone agrees are a good idea amount to something like $1.3trillion, with a ceiling increase of about $2.4trillion.

It eventually wound up back at no revenues and relatively small spending cuts because the bill would also contain a "trigger mechanism" - it would force the Congress to make some new "Super Congressional Committee", i.e. handpicked closed negotiations with no input from freshman members, to decide on wholesale changes to the tax code, or else a second package of spending cuts, about $3trillion, will automatically take big chunks out of the military and Medicare and a lot of other stuff both Republicans and Democrats do not want to be seen as responsible for.  (I think it's a retarded plan in my learned opinion, because there's no guarantee any such plan wouldn't be stymied by the exact same people who still won't be afraid of this brinksmanship, but we'll see.)  The Democratic "victory" in all this is the lack of language regarding the Bush Tax Cuts - they come up for reauthorization in December 2012, and would then expire if not extended.  Whether Obama wins or loses his reelection, he can just veto any extension and suddenly taxes are "raised" without anyone having to vote to raise them.

The central point as far as President Obama was ever concerned - that the debt ceiling would be raised enough that this chicken fight wouldn't happen again until 2013 - is supposedly met.  Between the ceiling being raised by about $2.4trillion along with the few near-term cuts, this won't be an issue again until after the next election cycle.  Not that it won't be a central issue, but at least there won't be another economic time bomb ready to end the world in the middle of campaign season.

Not that any of this is truly "agreed" to of course.  At 6:30PM Eastern Time, the Senate has not yet voted, and then would be all back to the House again.  Both the Democratic and Republican leadership teams are calling everyone they can, because about eighty Tea Partiers have already sworn not to vote for anything, while the "Progressive Caucus" is calling the plan a giftwrapped present for the Republicans (which by any rational measure, it is, which makes even the question of it not passing rather astounding).  The "magic number" is if exactly half of each party in the House votes in favor, it'll be enough votes to pass.  Place your bets now.
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