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Author Topic: The debt ceilling  (Read 40267 times)

Nadaka

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Re: The debt ceilling
« Reply #375 on: August 02, 2011, 11:59:45 pm »

Nikov: I would prefer the end of class warfare to not involve the downtrodden rising up and murdering their oppressors. I will also not allow class warfare to end in slavery. That means changing the system and making things more equitable. That is what I am advocating. If you want to call that furthering class warfare? Go right ahead. I call it fighting for the future of America and ultimately humanity.
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nenjin

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Re: The debt ceilling
« Reply #376 on: August 03, 2011, 12:09:02 am »

Quote
Or in your world, where Obama inherited Bush's debt and can't be held accountable for anything bad that happens, ever. Did that chart not show a very remarkable increase in national debt after 2006 under a Democratic congress only accellerate under a Democratic president? Is that, as we have been arguing this whole time, not your responsibility?

He inherited two wars, a housing and banking system on the verge of collapse and so far the highest level of debt we'd held. It's a wonder we're still floating as it is. Republicans, magically I might add, decided to become fiscal conservatives again the minute they lost the presidency. Before that it was green lighting any expense the CnC could cook up, on the basis of a patriotic war of defense that suddenly was expendable when a Democrat was going to take the fallout for it.

And then the Republican response to needing to bail out the banks and the markets? "Let it all burn, NOW we can't afford to spend any more money, despite the fact its domestic. I mean we're not in charge anyways, right? We'll just come back in 4 years to clean up the rubble." As though we were going to logically come out of that ok without having to spend our way out.

So pardon me if I have to call some BS when Republicans start preaching as though they're unimpeachable on finances or who got us into what. They had their crack at fiscal responsibility and they blew it possibly worse than the dems have (although providing for gov't services doesn't really sound like wasted money, because I'm a democrat.) And their recent attitude of "fuck it, let it burn" hasn't reassured anyone but Republicans that they know what they're doing.

I'm not pleased with the speed of much of anything Obama has done, and I would have rather had this debt debate when he took office, instead of the healthcare debate. The economy was turning and the political wisdom held to spend more to support it, and that turned out to barely be enough to justify the cost. I can't say I'm happy with his progress and he's made plenty of mistakes. But given the context, I'm sure it could be worse.
« Last Edit: August 03, 2011, 12:19:40 am by nenjin »
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Duuvian

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Re: The debt ceilling
« Reply #377 on: August 03, 2011, 12:13:47 am »

Yeah, this could have been much, much, much, much, much, much xinfinity worse
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Nikov

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Re: The debt ceilling
« Reply #378 on: August 03, 2011, 01:39:33 am »

Actually the economy is worse with Obama's stimulus than it would have been without his stimulus, according to his own estimates. So no, it probably could have been better.
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Duuvian

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Re: The debt ceilling
« Reply #379 on: August 03, 2011, 02:27:05 am »

Actually the economy is worse with Obama's stimulus than it would have been without his stimulus, according to his own estimates. So no, it probably could have been better.

Well, yeah, that was like his first sentence as president, that it wouldn't be easy.
« Last Edit: August 03, 2011, 02:33:37 am by Duuvian »
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Virex

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Re: The debt ceilling
« Reply #380 on: August 03, 2011, 02:52:11 am »

Okay. Lets raise taxes, fix corporate loopholes, and then... do something about jobs being outsourced. Well, since we can't lower taxes to encourage business to stay here in spite of our expensive labor, payroll taxes and regulations we'll need to get creative. Maybe the old Roman trick of declaring all sons have to take up their father's profession will work the second time around?
I didn't know the American economy was so reliant on low-wage industries that outsourcing is a mayor threat. Got any numbers on that?
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Agdune

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Re: The debt ceilling
« Reply #381 on: August 03, 2011, 03:23:47 am »

Yeah, Virex has a point. If the USA is so dependant on unskilled jobs that can be outsourced to other countries, you've got a problem regardless. Additionally, if your workforce is so unskilled that you can't create a workable mainstream economy that doesn't rely on unskilled manufacturing/telemarketing/corporate admin jobs that can be outsourced (y'know, like every other first world country was managing before the GFC), then you probably have a whole set of other problems and are still screwed in the end.

Edit: I'm extremely tired and don't know if what I just said makes sense. Does it make sense? It kinda does to me.
« Last Edit: August 03, 2011, 03:28:08 am by Agdune »
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sonerohi

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Re: The debt ceilling
« Reply #382 on: August 03, 2011, 03:26:36 am »

We do, in fact, have a problem regardless. We are just desperately trying to make things last before we have to actually change significantly.
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RedKing

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Re: The debt ceilling
« Reply #383 on: August 03, 2011, 06:08:52 am »

Actually the economy is worse with Obama's stimulus than it would have been without his stimulus, according to his own estimates. So no, it probably could have been better.

Source or else I call BS. That's like saying "WWII was worse than if we had killed Hitler in 1936." Unless you have access to a time machine, parallel universes or an incredibly detailed alternate history simulator, that's nothing but conjecture. Keynes aren't just for walking, and denial isn't a river in Egypt.
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DJ

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Re: The debt ceilling
« Reply #384 on: August 03, 2011, 06:30:07 am »

Thing is, increasingly skilled jobs are being outsourced, like IT jobs going to India etc. As less developed countries educate their workforce more and more jobs will be lost in the West. The First World lived comfy because it held a monopoly on this kind of labour, but this age is coming to an end so the wages will have to drop drastically to maintain reasonable employment levels. Basically the wages will get averaged with Third World wages, and it'll be a heavily weighted average because they have a lot more people.

The current state can be extended by heavily investing in education (not exactly what USA is doing) to maintain the skill gap, but they'll catch up eventually.
« Last Edit: August 03, 2011, 06:37:24 am by DJ »
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Aqizzar

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Re: The debt ceilling
« Reply #385 on: August 03, 2011, 07:09:08 am »

Yeah, Virex has a point. If the USA is so dependant on unskilled jobs that can be outsourced to other countries, you've got a problem regardless. Additionally, if your workforce is so unskilled that you can't create a workable mainstream economy that doesn't rely on unskilled manufacturing/telemarketing/corporate admin jobs that can be outsourced (y'know, like every other first world country was managing before the GFC), then you probably have a whole set of other problems and are still screwed in the end.

It's not just low skill labor that's being outsourced anymore; an increasing portion of high education jobs are leaving America for India and China, as they pump out qualified college grads and build modern infrastructure (and manipulate their currency structure to favor foreign investment).  The natural American response to this is to slash education and infrastructure funding to dole out more tax credits.  Snide aside, there's no getting around the fact that America's position as a dominant force of major manufacturing and technology is and will weaken over time as more countries catch up to it in development.  I for one simply don't think the way to make American labor competitive to China is to pay American workers Chinese wages.


So let's talk about American tax structure encouraging outsourcing.  It's worth stating right up front that while America's corporate tax rate is among the highest in the world on paper at 35% or so, about 2/3s of American corporations (including most of the biggest) qualify for more tax deductions than they owe.  It's kind of hard to incentivize corporations beyond offering them more deductions than due payment, which I think makes the "crushing tax burden" idea ludicrous, but I'll get back to that.

There's way more out there to talk about than any of us are particularly qualified for, but I think one of the main culprits is the combination of foreign tax credits and a legal construction called "transfer pricing".  That old Forbes article hints at the idea, which lies in the fact that foreign subsidiary corporations and their American parents have a lot of ways to move money around and deflate their taxable earnings.  Basically, the corporate income tax code deducts taxes from a company for any taxes paid on earnings in another country, and even credits the company a sort of "excess" tax credits for the rare cases when a foreign subsidiary winds up paying higher taxes.  But the way the tax accounting for foreign subsidiaries works, it's entirely possible to credit earnings from a subsidiary in one country as part of a different subsidiary - for instance, moving income from a country with a low tax rate to one with a high tax rate, exempting it from a large portion of American taxes while in reality only paying the low taxes of the origin country.

The "transfer pricing" is a different facet but it works much the same way.  A company's total bottom line accounts for all gains and expenditures, but it differentiates between parents and subsidiaries.  The simple story is that when two divisions of a company transfer things other than money between them - "goods", including immaterial stuff like licenses - they can set their prices on what everything is worth.  In practice, an American parent can underprice (or under-report) what it "sells" to its foreign subsidiary, and overpay (or over-report) what it "buys" from same.  That's part of why, in that article, GE Capital is able to keep doing gangbusters all the time, even though on paper the American arm of the company bleeds cash every year.  The reality is that it doesn't matter to investors or the company itself what numbers a particular arm of a multinational entity reports to the IRS, so long as the whole apparatus is run with one voice.  And because the IRS has little authority and much less ability to judge what internal trades are actually worth, there's basically nothing it can do about this.

And if any of this sounds like highfalutin terms for money laundering, you're pretty much right.  And if your next thought is "if the law is complicated enough to make this legal, why even bother", there's no small amount of outright fraud and non-payment in the corporate tax world, which especially for foreign earnings the IRS is basically powerless to do anything about.  As some astute economists have pointed out, every dollar spent on the IRS generates ten dollars in revenue, since they have never been manned and equipped enough to make actual collected revenue match what the math says it should be.  Naturally, the IRS finds itself on the chopping block in almost every Republican budget proposal, since they know nobody (except stalwart technocrats like me) like the IRS, so punishing them is easy.

So let's get to domestic corporate taxes, also know as payroll tax.  The vast majority of that is the company matching rates for Social Security and Medicare taxes - mathematically, that basically means a one for one comparison to employment, and comparing that to any other country is definitely a case-by-case basis of the totality of doing business elsewhere.  The only two options for lowing this are A) massively lowering American wages (which the government can't do), or cutting the rate (whole or matching) - as matching taxes account for about a third of federal revenue, this either explodes government debt or demands massive cuts in expenditures.  I'm perfectly aware that the conservative viewpoint sees none of the possibilities as particularly unattractive.  I'm not here to support that argument.

By the way, it's worth noting that the Democratic congress has addressed these issues as recently as last year, when they put through a few bills that would have exempted manufacturing companies from various payroll taxes as an incentive to operate in America, in exchange for fudging around the law of foreign corporate income deferral (basically, making it more expensive for companies to "hold" income overseas, which is a can of worms in itself).  In every case, it was blocked in the Senate by Republican filibuster, leading to this pearl of Republican doublethink courtesy of Orrin Hatch:

Quote from: Orrin Hatch (UT-R)
Raising taxes on companies’ overseas profits will just incentivize them to move their domestic facilities to another country.



As long as I'm rambling and throwing stones, how about I offer my own proposal?  Here's Aqizzar's debt-reducing, job attracting tax plan.
- Count the employer-provided cost of pension plans, retirement packages, insurance plans and other employee benefits as credit against the payroll taxes.  If America is going to be committed to employer-based life planning, then so be it.  Employers will either provide for their employees through social insurance taxes, or through paying for long-term benefits.
- To pay for it on the government's end, remove the income cap on personal Social Security taxes.  As is, only income below about $106,000 is counted for the 6.2% of Social Security tax.  For what I'm getting at, consider: in 2007, the 400 wealthiest Americans made a combined $23billion income.  Provided they paid all SS tax on all income (doubtful), they contributed about $2.5million (cap was a little lower then); without the cap, it would have been about $1.4billion.  Remove the income cap, and voilą the Social Security trust fund is solvent until the end of time, without so much as touching businesses or anyone below the top 15% of earning households.
- Eliminate the "double tax" credits in foreign corporate income.  Your subsidiary's profits pay the host company its taxes, and then money sent back to the American is taxed at the full rate too.  Suddenly, it's not so attractive to operate in other countries, if you still want to have a presence in America, as companies will want to so long as we are still the standard-bearer of industrial capitalism.

I'm no economist and there's tons of room to add specific numbers in there, but at least I have a coherent policy proposal, which is more than can be said for most of the actual politicians in this debate.
« Last Edit: August 03, 2011, 07:15:05 am by Aqizzar »
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Phmcw

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Re: The debt ceilling
« Reply #386 on: August 03, 2011, 07:16:29 am »

Okay. Lets raise taxes, fix corporate loopholes, and then... do something about jobs being outsourced. Well, since we can't lower taxes to encourage business to stay here in spite of our expensive labor, payroll taxes and regulations we'll need to get creative. Maybe the old Roman trick of declaring all sons have to take up their father's profession will work the second time around?

Nakada, although you said you wanted to end class warfare you just furthered it. Bravo.

Please explain European economy, then. We have a lot of structural problem, but outsourcing is not one any more.
If raising tax to an European level (say, Germany's) would damage your economy, please explain why Germany's economy is one of the best in the world.
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RedKing

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Re: The debt ceilling
« Reply #387 on: August 03, 2011, 08:00:55 am »

Brain drain is, IMHO, the biggest threat to American economic superiority in the next 20 years. Last year, thousands of Chinese-born Ph.D's returned to China after years abroad in the US, Australia and Europe. Used to be, they went abroad to find freedom of research, better facilities and higher pay. Now they're finding those things back home, especially in certain disciplines like nanotechnology, materials engineering, space science, biotechnology and advanced physics. The equipment and facilities available now are world-class, and both the government and private sector are throwing a TON of money into R&D, even as cash-strapped governments in the West are slashing research budgets.

Even non-Chinese scientists in some fields (especially biotech) have moved to China, where regulation and ethics restraints are incredibly loose. When stem-cell research was tightly constrained during the Bush administration, a number of US researchers fled to biotech firms in Guangzhou and Shenzhen. I would be almost positive there's human cloning research going on somewhere in China, probably several somewheres. The 2nd fastest supercomputer in the world (and for 8 months the previous #1) is in Tianjin. Unlike the US and Europe, they have an active manned spaceflight program. How many of the folks laid off at Cape Canaveral and Houston in the wake of the Shuttle program's end are going to be offered lucrative deals to come work for the PRC, hmm?

China is hitting a new golden age of scientific advance, while the US is steadily being taken over by people who think evolution is a lie and the world is only 6000 years old.
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Aqizzar

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Re: The debt ceilling
« Reply #388 on: August 03, 2011, 08:42:40 am »

I would be almost positive there's human cloning research going on somewhere in China, probably several somewheres.

As substantive as your point is, I couldn't help but giggle at that.  As if China needs clones...
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RedKing

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Re: The debt ceilling
« Reply #389 on: August 03, 2011, 08:57:48 am »

I would be almost positive there's human cloning research going on somewhere in China, probably several somewheres.

As substantive as your point is, I couldn't help but giggle at that.  As if China needs clones...
Less problematic than harvesting organs from executed criminals. Better tissue match, for one thing.
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