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[counting]

It's quite funny how you put me down and then go into asking an incredibly basic question.  Oh wait, it's not funny, it's annoying and obnoxious.

So. What's the topic we are going to talk about this time. Political idiocy over pressing economical issues?

I am asking the question about what people observed and heard within the U.S, about how the POLITICAL parties' views. Since I do not live in America. But the impact will not be limited to just within U.S., it will affect everyone in the world. So whether I like it or not, I am definitely concerned. Very curious about now the the collective opinions around people will affect the policies, and I want to know what they heard. Not asking anyone to giving analysis about why they do this (or why appears not doing anything effective on the surface.) though I do welcome the different views, since I am not that familiar with political issues and the games they played in U.S. Like the history between parties.

P.S if my previous posts offend you, I am here to say I'm sorry. I thought we were having friendly debates, and exchanging opinions with different views. PEACE? (But for the record, I still stand by my opinions and I guess we both will.)

[mainiac]

Well, the gods hate those who reject the proffered olive branch.

The current lie of the land is that the rise in the debt ceiling is roughly in line with the level of spending cuts that the democrats will cave to.  4 trillion over the next 10 years?  4 trillion rise in the debt ceiling.  2 for 2, etc.  Of course the tea party is putting out demands for things like a 1.5 trillion dollar cut for a 500 billion dollar rise though so it's pretty clear that nothing is agreed upon except their reservations in hell.

[counting]

Well, the gods hate those who reject the proffered olive branch.

The current lie of the land is that the rise in the debt ceiling is roughly in line with the level of spending cuts that the democrats will cave to.  4 trillion over the next 10 years?  4 trillion rise in the debt ceiling.  2 for 2, etc.  Of course the tea party is putting out demands for things like a 1.5 trillion dollar cut for a 500 billion dollar rise though so it's pretty clear that nothing is agreed upon except their reservations in hell.

So there ARE voices about long term spending plan? (I think 10 years is quite long for politicians to propose). I remember saw some projections about 2030 or 2040 budge balance as late as to 2080s, and the high interests spending will surface for the next several years. More than 30% of the current debt held by private investors bearing interests - like most treasury bills and notes issued since crisis - will mature within a year. I don't know how serious these politicians are about them.

--- some numbers may help the understanding of the situations ---
About half total debts held by the public are held directly by foreign countries, and 70% of them are bonds, bills, notes by foreign officials. (All these not include the securities held by U.S. companies and funds that repacking them and sell them via derivatives on global market indirectly). Imagine what will happen if people lose faith due to the drop of credit rating, and these debts default. Total amount of securities held by the public are about 10 trillions, not include those government promise to pay and supposedly held by like government trust funds, and the government borrowed them out to spend (So the government owes some government agencies but indirectly owes to the public). God helps those who lived by Social Security when default happens. (And now you know why the Greeks are mad about their government.)

I think debt limit is an aggregate limit, so is there someone already plan not to raise the limit top for 10 years? (regardless the increase or decrease in GDP and CPI). A 10 years plan is not only a bold one, and in my opinion quite unrealistic without proper context. I remember the last time the debt limit raise is in Feb 2010 to the current 14,294 billion. And the total debts number will reach this at the beginning of next month, about 10 days. Then literately run out of money to pay - default happens.

[Aqizzar]

Oh, this is lovely.  John Boehner has announced he is giving up on talks with the President, due to the recommendations of the six-person conference (i.e., raise revenue), and is taking his ball back to the House.  Obama is about to speak, and supposedly will continue negotiation with Harry Reid, Mitch McConnell and Eric Cantor.  I can't wait to hear what he intends to say now.

[freeformschooler]

Oh, this is lovely.  John Boehner has announced he is giving up on talks with the President, due to the recommendations of the six-person conference (i.e., raise revenue), and is taking his ball back to the House.  Obama is about to speak, and supposedly will continue negotiation with Harry Reid, Mitch McConnell and Eric Cantor.  I can't wait to hear what he intends to say now.

This is exactly the type of post that makes me wish I knew more about politics, so that I could have something highly negative to say about either John Boehner or Obama's current state.

[PTTG??]

It's kind of strange, but if the government is so bad it will destroy the country, nobody would want them in power, so it all works out.

Anyway, if the US government collapses, why don't you all come out to my place in the Sierra Nevadas and we'll start that commune we were talking about? We'd have gold, and green gold, and could export both if the feds go off our back.

[dragonshardz]

It's kind of strange, but if the government is so bad it will destroy the country, nobody would want them in power, so it all works out.

Anyway, if the US government collapses, why don't you all come out to my place in the Sierra Nevadas and we'll start that commune we were talking about? We'd have gold, and green gold, and could export both if the feds go off our back.

I'm down.

[Aqizzar]

Well, that was an interesting bit of impromptu speaching.  I can't believe how many political phrases there are that I'm sick of hearing.  I urge anyone who wants to know what's going on watch that, especially the question and answer session.  Obama was pretty obviously impatient by the end; it comes through in his master-craft wordmincing sometimes.  I'll try to write some of this down, and bear in mind all of this is not my opinion or judgment, this is just how I'm adding his words up over the whole session.

Obama's Claims
- "We" were within $100billion worth of negotiation to an agreement, including about $2trillion in discretionary and military cuts, $600billion in entitlement adjustments (however you want to read that), and $1.2trillion in revenue increases through elimination of credits, after the six-person bipartisan committee recommended $2trillion in revenue.
- "I" was willing to accept a "bad" deal, with 3 or 4 or 5 to 1 spending cuts versus revenue increases, because I'm willing to anger the people who elected me and my party because I want this done.
- "I" made this abundantly clear.

Obama's Demands
- John Boehner, Nanci Pelosi, Harry Reid, and Mitch McConnell must show up at his office tomorrow morning, and come up with some kind of preliminary plan by Monday, so they'll have something to tell the stockmarket before the world starts fleeing treasury bonds.
- The debt ceiling increase must be large enough to last through the next election, because he will not accept having this argument again, as an election issue as McConnell wanted.
- If McConnell's plan from a week ago, to use some legislative voodoo to vote against it themselves and leave the "responsibility" to him is fine.
- That the press (i.e. the people in the room), not talk about this as a "food fight".

The Presidential Question you're going to hear over and over
- Republicans, are you capable of saying 'yes' to anything?

Obama is physically incapable of directly insulting people, but he was using every linguistic maneuver he could think of to insult John Boehner, paint him as a slave to a Republican House leadership fight with a congress of people who don't know how government works (still his implications here, he's pretty easy to read when you learn how), and brand the Republican party as the part of intractable rich people (that corporate jet tax-break continues to be a debate goldmine).  His little impassioned speech at the end is worth a watch in itself, for stagecraft if nothing else.

[Aklyon]

Wow, I hadn't even noticed that link until I hit quote. Nicely done, PTTG.

[Duke 2.0]

Obama is physically incapable of directly insulting people,

 This is the true motive of the Republican Party, fidangle him into a situation where he must insult somebody. Trillion dollar bets on if he explodes or not.

[Aqizzar]

Obama is physically incapable of directly insulting people,

 This is the true motive of the Republican Party, fidangle him into a situation where he must insult somebody. Trillion dollar bets on if he explodes or not.

Judging by how much he was stuttering and frowning by the end of the appearance, he came pretty close.


According to John Boehner, the final breakdown point was the revenues - he claims they had agreed to about $800billion in revenue through mathematical changes and accounting and such, but the President (suddenly, he claims) demanded an extra $400billion.  It turns out, that $400billion would have been a legal guarantee to let portions of the "Bush tax cuts" expire at the end of 2012, raising the top-end marginal tax rates and some capital gains taxes back to what they were in the 1990s (since the cuts were and still are legally temporary, and not permanently encoded).  Boehner and his position as House speaker could not abide any deal, or apparently even further discussion of a deal, that included any increase in effective taxes on "job creators".

[KaelGotDwarves]

Well, pack it in gentlemen, we're all royally fucked.

The Republicans don't even know the fallout of their toying with the economy, and are just now getting a brief on it. Meanwhile there's a tweet going around the Republican caucus that originated from the editor of conservative RedState.com

Should the United States lose its bond rating, it will be called the “Obama Depression”. Congress does not get pinned with this stuff.

Via: http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2011/07/15/erick_erickson_s_bad_advice.html

Yeah. This is great. Good luck to the rest of you, my investments are moving abroad.

[Nadaka]

If I was Obama, I probably would have shot someone in the kneecap already.

I don't think I would be a very good politician.

[Leafsnail]

Is it really a surprise that they want to downgrade the US's bonds when a major party is, y'know, threatening a default?  I'm pretty sure raising fears of default for political gain is something that even opposition parties should never do if they give a damn about the good of their country rather than beating their opponents.

[Nadaka]

Is it really a surprise that they want to downgrade the US's bonds when a major party is, y'know, threatening a default?  I'm pretty sure raising fears of default for political gain is something that even opposition parties should never do if they give a damn about the good of their country rather than beating their opponents.

What makes you think the republicans ever gave a damn about the good of the country?