I knew this thread was coming eventually. I hope this makes something like sense, I've been watching the process pretty close.
Mark my words: This is a strategy designed to give both sides what they want: more power for the president. Not secret police powers or other conspiracy nonsense, just a small measure more economic power.
At the last minute, the republicans will vote for the compromise granting the president the power to raise the debt limit. This will make them seem reasonable without making it look like they've sacrificed anyone, make the democrats look like heroes, and gives the president the power to, with minimal checks, raise the debt ceiling.
I know this is going to sound ludicrous, but I think you're reading too much into this. Allow me to offer the more temporal explanation. Who's right? Who knows, but this is what I'm getting out of it.
There's a lot of things the Republican party used to be able to stand for, and several that it still does. The only one that the Republican leadership in Congress, i.e. John Boehner and Mitch McConnell, are willing and able to hang their hat on is "no more taxes, ever". Boehner especially has to hold to this, because there's a lot of Republican congressmen aiming for his seat as Speaker of the House. But they, as the intelligent men that they are, can recognize mathematical reality.
The mathematical reality is something has to change. As you said, you can chop all discretionary spending out of the federal budget, and the government will still not be making enough money to cover its legal expenses - Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and perhaps most importantly the interest on the debt and treasury bonds. The debt keeps rising, and now you've got Moody's saying that treasury bonds may not be AAA anymore, mostly because they're terrified of this new Republican Congress treating the debt ceiling as a bargaining chip. So at least one of four things had to happen-
1) The debt ceiling is blown, and the economy goes nuclear.
2) Massive cuts to obligatory social programs (Medicare, etc.)
3) Tax increases somewhere, in removal of exemptions if not in actual rates.
4) Debt ceiling is raised, and the serious fight is postponed for another day.
Despite the prognostications of Michelle Bachmann, #1 would not be good for anybody, least of all the Republican party or its leadership. This has become abundantly clear as Moody's has started threatening the rating-reduction even if the ceiling isn't blown, and the business base of the party has finally started whispering in their ear, "What in God's name are you doing?"
#2 and 3 however can work to their advantage, because they're all unpopular, and #4 of course just gives everyone a chance to screw around again. But you have to think about it from the position of the people actually in the meeting room, Boehner and McConnell again. Obama originally offered them a proposal that was about 3:1 spending cuts versus tax increases, the same sort of deal Reagan, Bush #1, and Clinton did. They said "fuck your taxes". The deal became 5:1, they said "fuck your taxes". So Obama reminded them that the ceiling will be raised somehow or the economy will go through the floor, and their pollsters reminded them that a good half the general population still blames the country's problems on the Republican party, and would blame them if anything worse happens. And from the other side, they've got their "Tea Party" deal with the devil, saying just talking about increasing "Obama's" debt ceiling is the only concession they should ever make (a rhetorical flourish that insults the intelligence of anyone who hears it, but I digress).
If Boehner agreed to anything Obama proposed, including raising the ceiling at all, he could lose his Speakership. If Medicare or Social Security are cut, a whole lot of Republicans could lose their seats in the next election, as has already happened in one special election thanks to them wearing Paul Ryan on their sleeves. If Boehner or McConnell agreed to any deal that increased anyone's taxes in any way, form, or fashion (listening to them defend the tax credit for buying private jets was a very nice dessert), Grover Norquist and David Koch will see them excommunicated from the party.
So they punted. They surrendered all responsibility to the President by more or less agreeing to a roundabout legislative tango that will see the debt ceiling raised with no riders or preconditions. It might make them look spineless, even childish, but it saves them from being liars by
technically preserving their pledge to never raise taxes or debts, since it won't be their fault, right? And it leaves them free to blame anything that happens afterwards on the President, since it will
technically be his fault, whatever "it" may be. And now you've got McConnell saying the plan he wants will call for making sure the ceiling increase is small enough that will have to be raised three times before November, 2012. I.E., milking that base-inspiring cow for all its worth in time for the next election, and preserving the "uncertainty" in the money community that he oh so loves to harp about as the reason the economy still sucks in Obama's third year in office.
That to me is far scarier than any open-conspiracy business about increasing Executive power or whatever. That the fate of the fundamental bedrock of the nation's and ultimately the world's economy is subject to the two-year election cycle gamesmanship of a bunch of serial egomaniacs. I almost hope it's conspiratorial, at least then it would mean there's a longterm vision at the helm.
Author
Topic: The Debt Ceiling Deal... ing (Read 25118 times)