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[CT]

What are they...are there any? Because I can have fortresses going for years without hostile encounters excluding the local wildlife. I do embark next to hostile civ's but I have never ever been sieged...it makes me

[ffaerie]

Have you had any ambushes yet? Do you produce/export much stuff? You have to have some kind of minimum population living in your fort too (around 80) as per wiki. Make sure you have [INVADERS:ON] in your d_init.txt. It can be altered between saves and doesn't require to start over, too. Where I happen to embark, usually the first siege doesn't come until at least year 8 -- ambushes start around year 3.

[celem]

Some spots on the worldmap are unreachable.  Nothing can cross bodies of water or mountain terrain so its possible to cut yourself off.   You'd know by now if this was the case as it affects merchants and all but first 2 migrant waves.  Its possible you are cutoff only from goblins, but unlikely.

Assuming invaders are on and that goblins are not extinct (rare, can export population data to check) its just a matter of time

As stated your triggers are population and created wealth.  By default its 80 dwarves and (i think) 100,000 dorfbucks created, these are changable in the goblin entity raws.

If all the above match up its a waiting game, the physical distance from your site to the bad guys is simulated, if they are far away across the world it may take years before they show up.  They depart at intervals after triggers are met though so once they start arriving its business as usual.

Checking 'c' civ screen can help, but be aware it only shows civs you have made contact with (a single thief/babysnatcher is enough and proof that you need only wait)