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[Pandarsenic]

MIND GAMES SON

[Max White]

Clearly I should just keep out while the grown ups work it out, right? Any scummy behaviour isn't because you are scum, just because your strategy is so deep and cunning it involves you looking like scum to... do something? How about I help you out and vote Pandarsenic to make you look even more like scum and deepen your cover.
You can thank me now.

[Pandarsenic]

scum

Still in the wrong mindset~

[Pandarsenic]

Oh, votecount?

[Jim Groovester]

What, worried about getting lynched?

Is that WIFOM defense not working out?

[Max White]

Still in the wrong mindset~

*Wink*

Also...
Bdthemag: Why you no post? Lurking, or not active?

[Pandarsenic]

Hey Jim, who's your nightkill target?

[Dariush]

Dariush:

Damn, I forgot that he may either be a Jester or not with 50% chance and thought that he has equal chance to be every role. Unvote.

This is complete bullshit.  You said two posts above this one that it'd be a 1/6 chance of an instalose if Pandar was lynched.  Now you want to pass it off like you didn't know it could be true?  Bullshit, bullshit, bullshit.  I'd say you're the Lynched keyed to Pandar.  Am I right?

When I posted about 1/6 chance, I forgot that there's roughly 50/50 chance of him being jester, and in the case he isn't one, there's equal chance of him being everyone else, which brings us to 50%+50/11%, or 54.5% of us losing if we lynch him. WIFOM is a dangerous thing and I don't want to play with it.

Shrug, Jim says it's cool, so it probably is. Unvote, vote Pandarsenic. I like these odds.

What kind of shit is this? You vote for someone only because an experienced player voted for him?

I think you're Lyncher, Think. Hang.

[Jim Groovester]

Hey Jim, who's your nightkill target?

Why, got suggestions?

Not that I can help you with that.

[Pandarsenic]

I'd recommend Powder Miner. He seems to have some sort of delusion that I'm the watcher.

[Darvi]

Whaaaaaa? Why does Pandar have a 50% chance of being a Jester, Dariush? That's statistics, and bad ones too.  I think you're Pandar[/url]'s brother.

[Dariush]

Whaaaaaa? Why does Pandar have a 50% chance of being a Jester, Dariush? That's statistics, and bad ones too.  I think you're Pandar[/url]'s brother.

You have any better way of distributing chances of him being and not being a Jester? We gain too little by lynching him if he's not a Jester (unless he's Cult) and we lose too much by lynching him if he's a Jester (we lose the game). Unless you know Pandar's role... which means youre either Jester yourself or Lyncher.

[Darvi]

You have any better way of distributing chances of him being and not being a Jester?

Yes. There's 12 roles. Everybody knows one of them, namely their own. Maybe somebody else's if they're the brother, lyncher, or assassin. Which means that Pandar can be any of 11 or 10 roles. That's a 1 in 11 or 1 in 10 chance. Not 1 in 2. Learn to math.

[Max White]

Dariush: Well we have other things to gain, such as killing the SK or the mafia, and even to some degree the lyncher or assassin. Cult isn't the only role this is a threat, in fact I'm starting to think it is the lesser of two evils next to the mafia or SK (Although cult is still a lynch on sight role) so your post doesn't make a lot of sense.

But more importantly than that, it also is very defensive, even bordering on accusing Darvi of being jester or lyncher, without ever addressing why Darvi suspected you. Your statistics are... Weird? To say the least. Giving somebody a 54.5% chance of being an instalose, on the first day especially, has to be an attempt at defending somebody.

[Dariush]

Goddammit. Pandar's behaviour is obviously Jester-y. If it wasn't for this, he would indeed have an equal chance to be every role, but since he is attempting to look like Jester, he may either be or not be one, which gives us a roughly 50/50 chance. Learn to math.