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[Dariush]

Damn, I forgot that he may either be a Jester or not with 50% chance and thought that he has equal chance to be every role. Unvote.

[Powder Miner]

Dariush, that reasoning isn't statistically sound. There is no 50-50 chance for him to be Jester, although there is probably something like say 80-20 (just a guess).
However, it still is a risky move.

[Jim Groovester]

Whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa hold up everybody let's all be cautious.

This is ridiculous. This whole day has been a waste of time. If you actually want to get reads on anybody, you better start throwing that vote around.

Pandarsenic, what do I have to lose if you get lynched?

Fuck WIFOM. There's only 1/6 chance of instalose if we lynch Pandar, so there goes my vote.

Fuck WIFOM. There's only 1/6 chance of instalose if we lynch Pandar, so there goes my vote.

I don't understand your reasoning. People say there is a good chance he is the jester, but you point out that from a pure statistical point of view the chances of him being an instalose are exactly the same as the rest of us.

What makes him a better target than anybody else?

Damn, I forgot that he may either be a Jester or not with 50% chance and thought that he has equal chance to be every role. Unvote.

Dariush, that reasoning isn't statistically sound. There is no 50-50 chance for him to be Jester, although there is probably something like say 80-20 (just a guess).
However, it still is a risky move.

The reasoning is actually sound. There are two roles that currently make it instalose if they are lynched: Jester and Town. Therefore, the 1/6 number is actually correct.

Also, percentages that are weighed based on how people play are nonsense virtually all the time.

[Powder Miner]

Jim, I was saying that a percentage like that was bad.

[Jim Groovester]

That's cool.

I didn't really read your post anyway.

[Supercharazad]

That's cool.

I didn't really read your post anyway.

That's not cool.

Why didn't you read his post?

[webadict]

Webadict remembers that some how, they've begun playing without explaining the rules.

He shrugs and lets everyone continue with whatever they're doing.

Vote Count
----------------------------
Supercharazad -
Toaster -
Pandarsenic - Jim Groovester,
Jim Groovester - lordnincompoop,
lordnincompoop -
Dariush -
Powder Miner -
Darvi -
TolyK -
Think0028 -
Max White -
Bdthemag -
No Lynch - Think0028,

Not Voting - Supercharazad, Toaster, Pandarsenic, Powder Miner, Darvi, TolyK, Max White, Bdthemag, Dariush,

7 to Hammer. Day Ends Tuesday 9PM Central.

[Jim Groovester]

That's cool.

I didn't really read your post anyway.

That's not cool.

Why didn't you read his post?

I did read it. I exaggerated my willful inattentiveness.

[Pandarsenic]

Pandarsenic, what do I have to lose if you get lynched?

Your opportunity to kill everyone else in the game after me. Or maybe not.

[Jim Groovester]

I'm willing to risk it.

Sad to say I doubt anyone else is.

[Max White]

Jim Groovster: Does your role grant you knowledge that would bring the chances of lynching Pandarsenic causing an instalose from 1/6, down to 1/12?

[Jim Groovester]

No.

[Think0028]

Shrug, Jim says it's cool, so it probably is. Unvote, vote Pandarsenic. I like these odds.

[Toaster]

Dariush:

Damn, I forgot that he may either be a Jester or not with 50% chance and thought that he has equal chance to be every role. Unvote.

This is complete bullshit.  You said two posts above this one that it'd be a 1/6 chance of an instalose if Pandar was lynched.  Now you want to pass it off like you didn't know it could be true?  Bullshit, bullshit, bullshit.  I'd say you're the Lynched keyed to Pandar.  Am I right?

[Powder Miner]

WHat if Jim is th elyncher? Don't do something in a game like this because someone says it;s ok.