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Author Topic: Dwarconomy: The danger of world trading based on local supply/demand differences  (Read 13731 times)

astaldaran

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Re: The danger of world trading based on local supply/demand differences
« Reply #60 on: May 30, 2011, 08:53:57 am »

This is interesting and everything but once again we come to the problem that dwarfs are not really economic actors because WE (the player) is not an economic actor. Currency will never make sense as long as we command the dwarfs what to do and have to provide no payment, etc. I think the only way to really implement any sort of real economy is to make the players an economic actor. That might make this game more of a simulation then toady wants.
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jseah

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Re: The danger of world trading based on local supply/demand differences
« Reply #61 on: May 30, 2011, 10:17:56 am »

First of all, if there is no gold mine, and the agents/players can not barters, and gold coins are the only fiat money. Where is the money supply comes from?
No no, that's all wrong.  NPCs aren't paid simply to do things.  If they chop wood, and the wood they chop doesn't sell, they get no money. 

The NPCs decide to buy goods in order of their want.  The price is negotiated based on money supply remaining. 
Money supply turns over exactly once per "turn".  Everyone spends what money they have, consumes what goods they use, exactly one time.  This is representing the limit of transaction speed and thus how fast money goes round in the system. 

Money supply was an initial condition.  Specifically, the scenario was that they are colonizing and building a town on a new continent that took a few weeks one-way by ship.  The players in question either brought coins with them or one of them chose to use a centralized credit system. (I imposed a heavy government labor requirement for that)

But enough about my little simulation.  It wasn't well done and had a number of fudges in play.  (eg. people didn't really starve, the price of food just kept inflating and the little counter I had informed me that total food wasn't enough to feed everyone)
That wasn't built to be a simulation.  It was built to be town calculator for an RPG game. 
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counting

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Re: The danger of world trading based on local supply/demand differences
« Reply #62 on: May 30, 2011, 10:30:46 am »

This is interesting and everything but once again we come to the problem that dwarfs are not really economic actors because WE (the player) is not an economic actor. Currency will never make sense as long as we command the dwarfs what to do and have to provide no payment, etc. I think the only way to really implement any sort of real economy is to make the players an economic actor. That might make this game more of a simulation then toady wants.

As my titles says, topic of the day. I am not done tell the story yet.(there's only so much text wall I can generated a day like the spear in story :o) In fact I got another version of Urist McDFPlyaer vs Urist McNPCs haven't finished yet, that will be the true suggestion I am proposed (if it ever finished), but there is so much to tell, things needed to be understand, the basic principles of economics, and especially how exactly ACE (agent-based computational economics) in evolutionary and experimental economics is implemented. It's a challenge for me, since I need to describe down to the very last detailed. So I decided to use the way of story to tell the whole picture (I like fiction, and writing it) .

And since you have brought up the topics, I'll partially tell the idea of how I imagine it should work. There are civilizations and their offshoots (entities as a whole) reside in limited regions of different sizes and resourced quantities. That includes the role of 'YOU' (it's actually a SG-1, and Chinese name joke.) in my story as you - the player - in fortress mode, and the role of other characters will be played by NPCs' civilizations and their offshoots. Each little dwarfs, humans, beasts, etc are just acting inside these characters head providing the characteristics and productions and limitations. The caravans and depots will function as representative of the characters and their home (as roaming merchants and local markets' function in medieval era).

And in some of my early posts, I made a suggestion of using king's/official markets and regional market(market's market). You might get some slight idea why I am telling this story. Market's market will be like the 'YOU' in the story (in adventure mode, it will be played by NPCs' civs), who open that little shop of exchange for others to buy/sell. And the other markets will essentially remain their original roll of pure bargaining exchange depots (in the beginning at least). As my story about "Goddess, drunk, kids, and old fisherman" tells you, in the very core of a commodity money economy, is still the same principle as pure bargaining, the difference are while originally many bartering trading chains will be like :

A=>a=>B=>b=>C=>c=>...=>i=>A, till A gets what he want.

and while under commodity money system it will become some trading pairs :

BUY:A=>money=>B=>commodity=>A, SELL:A=>commodity=>B=>money=>A

So the next step of work is modifying the ideas and replacing roles with real dwarfs (civs). Also we need to 'find'(designed by Toady in DF) the proper commodity goods as money, so the currency will be a necessity, rather than been excessive like the "metal coins". 

See!? if you read my story properly, you will get my points very quickly. And the next discussion will continue using this story, so I'll put a link in the very first post in this thread.
« Last Edit: May 30, 2011, 04:37:16 pm by counting »
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Currency is not excessive, but a necessity.
The stark assumption:
Individuals trade with each other only through the intermediation of specialist traders called: shops.
Nelson and Winter:
The challenge to an evolutionary formation is this: it must provide an analysis that at least comes close to matching the power of the neoclassical theory to predict and illuminate the macro-economic patterns of growth

counting

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Re: The danger of world trading based on local supply/demand differences
« Reply #63 on: May 30, 2011, 11:17:20 am »

First of all, if there is no gold mine, and the agents/players can not barters, and gold coins are the only fiat money. Where is the money supply comes from?
No no, that's all wrong.  NPCs aren't paid simply to do things.  If they chop wood, and the wood they chop doesn't sell, they get no money. 

The NPCs decide to buy goods in order of their want.  The price is negotiated based on money supply remaining. 
Money supply turns over exactly once per "turn".  Everyone spends what money they have, consumes what goods they use, exactly one time.  This is representing the limit of transaction speed and thus how fast money goes round in the system. 

Money supply was an initial condition.  Specifically, the scenario was that they are colonizing and building a town on a new continent that took a few weeks one-way by ship.  The players in question either brought coins with them or one of them chose to use a centralized credit system. (I imposed a heavy government labor requirement for that)

But enough about my little simulation.  It wasn't well done and had a number of fudges in play.  (eg. people didn't really starve, the price of food just kept inflating and the little counter I had informed me that total food wasn't enough to feed everyone)
That wasn't built to be a simulation.  It was built to be town calculator for an RPG game.

That explained a lot. The 'money' in your system, is like an unusable, zero decay, none(or only) value goods backup just by the systems request (enforced). In fact it may as well doesn't exist, and purely tags a number on everything. (Probably easiest way to do in programming aspects).

But it's easy to understand why there is no incentive to produce food. If say everyone has the same amount of credits in the beginning, if any NPC try to sell their product exchange with 'coins',and if pure randomly their decided to trade or not. There is always some people end up with more goods in their hands, and the other half end up with more 'coins' in their hand. And if every goods is removed at the end of term or has an expiration date. The goods will be gone, and those end up with more goods will have little money no goods, the other half more money no goods as well. So if the money can have a positive effect on productions, the richer get richer but the amount of increments is usually decrease (like put 1 get 10, put 2 get 15, put 3 get 18, put 4 get 20, etc), the poor get less products as a result, and the rich didn't make up the difference of the lost productions. Imagine that there is a super rich one, and everyone very poor, they very poor produce 0 to nothing, the very rich can't supply everyone if the productions has a cap on it. The result will be clear, that the amount of 'coins' didn't change, but the amount of products reduced, hence inflation.

It's fairly common in a closed system really. Rolling up the lottery, the lost is always higher than the gain when winning. It just end up with shrinking productions. There are 4 if assumptions, if they all started the same (probably true), if the decision of exchange is random (definitely not, but doesn't effect the results, it's simply giving different starting points), if the goods are removed from the system periodically(probably true, or you will not get inflation, but deflation). And if the production functions is positive related with the amount of money invested and has a cap (most simulation do). They are a little like the result of lottery, and winner is the state (If you stand at the point of government, it clearly a form of taxes, and your system 'gaining' goods from your NPCs, and slowly choking it.)

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Currency is not excessive, but a necessity.
The stark assumption:
Individuals trade with each other only through the intermediation of specialist traders called: shops.
Nelson and Winter:
The challenge to an evolutionary formation is this: it must provide an analysis that at least comes close to matching the power of the neoclassical theory to predict and illuminate the macro-economic patterns of growth

jseah

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Re: The danger of world trading based on local supply/demand differences
« Reply #64 on: May 30, 2011, 04:40:57 pm »

Well, decision of exchange wasn't random.  The biggest change in the entire simulation compared to real life is that savings rate is 0. 
Yes, everyone spends ALL their money every cycle. 

Was the reason why I didn't get any rich people.  Well, ok, the farmers with skill were rich.  But that's because food costs a lot when you aren't producing enough to feed everyone. 
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counting

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Re: The danger of world trading based on local supply/demand differences
« Reply #65 on: May 30, 2011, 05:40:47 pm »

Well, decision of exchange wasn't random.  The biggest change in the entire simulation compared to real life is that savings rate is 0. 
Yes, everyone spends ALL their money every cycle. 

Was the reason why I didn't get any rich people.  Well, ok, the farmers with skill were rich.  But that's because food costs a lot when you aren't producing enough to feed everyone.

The decision is decided random or not is not important, as long as it's a process of redistribution of coins. Think some A gives B goods, B gives A coins, the result is always one of them end up with more coins than the other (A>B), as long as this process is reversible completely (through a chain of change), like A gives someone EXACTLY the same amount of coins for some other goods. Even just 1 coin difference, there will be some X with 1 coin less or more, just how fast the richer gets rich will be slower or quicker. (If it's random, it will form normal distribution, like a 30/70 rule)

Hence you may realize the difficult of balancing the system, it need to be so precious that when ever some fluctuations occurs it needs to counter EXACTLY right. Or make sure the difference in distribution of wealth is below the level of creating the positive feedback loop. But it will be a very static system. And we don't want that don't we? (For some game designer however it's exactly them need - balanced) However the nature of exchange is never about fair trade, imbalanced is the driving force of trade, wealth included. Maybe the price do reflect the imbalanced after all, and just because the capping of production in skills are keeping it from reaching equilibrium price. Remember that supply/demand solution? it's not instantaneous balance, but a process of gradually approach, goes up, goes down, too much, than backward. So if there is a cap in price, in amount of demand, amount of supply, it will stock before reaching equilibrium, and make some suppliers or buyers always making profits out of that particular deal. I guess is it should exist in your food production industry. Too few farmers? The farmers can't translate their skills into production that every needed? because level 10->level 11 takes forever? So the amount of capital invested(experience) never able to breach the cap. (Remember the supply is 'willing and ABLE' if they are not able, it will be a vertical line after cap capacity)
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Currency is not excessive, but a necessity.
The stark assumption:
Individuals trade with each other only through the intermediation of specialist traders called: shops.
Nelson and Winter:
The challenge to an evolutionary formation is this: it must provide an analysis that at least comes close to matching the power of the neoclassical theory to predict and illuminate the macro-economic patterns of growth

counting

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Re: The danger of world trading based on local supply/demand differences
« Reply #66 on: May 30, 2011, 07:29:19 pm »

I got an extremely dangerous idea that may cripple the DF. It basically involves tagging each product with it's final stage execution workers. Like every piece of final goods will be tags as legendary by who make them. However once it leaves the local market system, the counting/voting process of that kind of goods will finished and by this process the true value of that goods will be carried out, and join outside economics exchanging caravans/markets network of exchange.

But I figured with this process, we might even have a true commodity money decided every time the worldgen and been different each time. And it will make each time playing the game a completely different economic challenge. Imagine that some world chooses a kind of animals, probably large animals can be make into many "products", as commodity money base, you will need to be animal breeder in order to accumulate capitals, or you can buy them and slammed them for products and becomes the money blackhole deflation the whole worlds, it will constraint some aspects of playing, but provide surprising challenges and completely different way of manipulated the world you are in, you really need to think outside the box, in order to make profit in different baskets of goods combinations. (And more way for FUN!!!)

And I don't think it's impossible though. And it will be like in a guild you need to forced signed your work, so the guildmasters can trace back who make certain goods, not for quality control purpose only, but also "listened" the guild members wishes as a whole. (The price isn't set by guildmaster, but a collective decision). Maybe a meeting of something can reduce the memory cost, when a guild meeting is finished, the tag for that goods can be removed and stored in the market waiting to be traded. It also gives those idle-loving gossiping dwarfs something else to do while sitting pretty in gathering zone. Let's voting! yes or no! Higher or Lower! And also integrated the guild practice more extensively in economic roles. Interesting thoughts, dangerous, dangerous !!!
« Last Edit: May 30, 2011, 07:38:15 pm by counting »
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Currency is not excessive, but a necessity.
The stark assumption:
Individuals trade with each other only through the intermediation of specialist traders called: shops.
Nelson and Winter:
The challenge to an evolutionary formation is this: it must provide an analysis that at least comes close to matching the power of the neoclassical theory to predict and illuminate the macro-economic patterns of growth

counting

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Re: The danger of world trading based on local supply/demand differences
« Reply #67 on: May 31, 2011, 04:18:02 pm »

Before we continue the sequel of "Goddess, drunk, kids, and old fisherman", there is a prequel, we need to find out. In order to compare our little island world with DF world, we have to make an observation of what's it like in our island with a economic system in DF. Prequel 1 is about the Weoldgen process create uneven starting ground, and the basic landscape of the story take place, the resourced it has and the techs and terms it used.

"Goddess, Drunk, Kids, and Old Fisherman" Prequel 1 : "The Island - Beach and Forest, Beauty and the Beast."

Before everyone on this island started the long chain of exchange bargaining, You, a young dwarf came to this seemly wonderful island, with nothing but 10 ales, and 10 mushrooms, and your shovel. You first landed on the west shore of the island, and found a beautiful giant beach stretching towards all directions, with a few scattered sea shells sparkling on it. You loved this place, and wanted to live here. But there is not enough time for you to build a cave farm and draining the underground water before running out of food. Despite there are rivers, running from both north-east and south-east joining together then flowing out to the sea, thus create this beach, to provide something to drink. You'd prefer ales more. You are not a good hunter nor fisherman, and the number you catch a week can't even fed yourself. Even if you are, the natural fish population isn't big enough to sustain you anyway. Hence you said goodbye to the beach and collected some beautiful shells then left.

As you traveled south-east upward the river, trying to find it's source and a better place. You climbed higher and higher, until you reach the source of the river. It's a weirdly shaped round small lake, sitting on top of a high hill. The land scape is rough, and you didn't seem to find any trees or plants growing around here. You know you will eventually need some wood to build furniture for your home, or tools, if you planned on living here for long. So you climbed down the hill in a different route, hoping to find something else. But you just came across another shore line, which is much rocky and shorter. It has higher altitude beside the hill, so there are some ocean cliffs along the coast. Although, some spots between those cliffs are good natural harbors for fishing. You know you can catch enough fish to feed yourself on these fishing spots, but sadly you just aren't good enough. You know you can find a better place than here, so you traveled back to the giant beach north, and followed the other branch of the river north-east into the heart of the island.

You moved along the right side of the river bank, it's a bigger branch than the southern one. As you were wandering around, you thought you saw some trees on your right hand side toward south-east, so you start heading that way. You came across a series of hills and some cave openings on the side, there are bushes growing on these hills, but not much, so you keep walking. And you finally reaching a forests. It's dense like a jungle. The altitude is high like a plateau, but beside from the heavy raining, you didn't see any sign of surface water. There heard roars coming from the forests, but you didn't know what they are You thought you must be careful, before you have some good weapons other than your tiny shovel. So you head back towards the river and hopefully to find somewhere less dangerous. When you took a last glimpse of that forest, you saw some familiar shape on the corner of your eyes, and you recognized that odd shape as the high hills with a weird lake on top. Thus, you realized that you've traveled to the other far side of that high hills, and now on the east side of the island. And those hills you pass by are all part of a massive mouth system.

You came back to the river side, and now you want to explore the right left hand of the river towards north and west. You find many animals roaming around on a much flat plane. Some of them looks massive in size and you wonder why did they grow so big? And since there are bushes and small forest scattering all over the place, and source of water from the river. Some small hills only, you thought it's a good place to start. But before you can put down the tools, you suddenly saw a giant shadow running towards you like a lightning. You looked up in shivers, and found a creature looks like fresh out of nightmare with wings, flying and heading your way. It didn't look nice, and seems like it wanted meat more than grass. You turned and tried to run away, but before you can scream you are tripped by bushes, and fell on the ground. You closed your eyes and hope for some miracles.

You DID heard a scream, not from your mouth, but from the winged beast. It fell off the sky and hit hard on the ground, and there was a giant axe on its head. You looked around, and saw a small figure running close, and pulled out that axe with the strength disproportional with the delicate feature. It hacks the body a couple more time, with the speed a lot faster than the diseased beast. And then it carried the chopped corpse easily like it was nothing, turned around, slowly walked toward your direction with the bloody big axe on one hand. You barely saw its figure as the shape of a female body, then fainted.

You didn't know how long you were out, but when you woke up, you are in a cave, laying on a bed, and some unknown ales on the table across the room, with a chair made out of stone. You checked yourself and find you were ok. And the small wound from falling and a possible struggle are healed. You are hungry and thirsty, so you drank the ales, which you think it will be better using your secret recipes and ingredients. Your nose is back to normal and smelt something from outside. As you walked out the cave and saw sunlight, you found the sources of the smell. It's a mixed of good and bad. The bad coming from a butchering stand, pills with corpses, animal body parts, and blood cluttering on the floor. The good smell coming from the a cooking stand just next to it, and the girl you assumed she is the one who saved you, seems very busy, was BBQing something. Then you recognized its the wings from the beast that attempted to attack you, but appalled by that little girl.

When she turned around after done cooking, you are stun by her beauty, and you instantly decided she will be your personal goddess forever. While you are still staring her unequivalent beauty, she walked toward you with the same giant axe used to kill the flying beast, but you hardly notice it this time. She has the most astonishing smile on her face, and said something. You are too focus to realized the grim on the edge of her smile, thus you didn't understand and heard anything she said at first. Then she pouted and take out something shiny on her hand from a bag, and say something again. This time you paid attention, since that bag looked very much like your backpack, and the shiny little thing looked just like those sparkling shells you collected from the beach.

Then you realized she is asking you where did you get the shiny shell, and asked if you have more. You said you've collected all of them from the beach down stream across the river. And she told you she never went across the river, and near the ocean, then started taking out things from your backpack. She take out the few mushrooms, smelt them and throw it back. She then take out 1 of the remain bucket of ales, shaken it, and shook her head. You felt disappointed and hurt, since you thought your ales is the best in the world. She takes out all your belonging and throw them all back in except the shiny shells. Then she threw the backpack toward you, took those shells with her, and went down a tunnel behind the cooking stand and disappeared.
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Currency is not excessive, but a necessity.
The stark assumption:
Individuals trade with each other only through the intermediation of specialist traders called: shops.
Nelson and Winter:
The challenge to an evolutionary formation is this: it must provide an analysis that at least comes close to matching the power of the neoclassical theory to predict and illuminate the macro-economic patterns of growth

counting

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Before we continuing our story, I want to explain why choose this commodity are trading example.

1. the fish, it decays very fast, in 10 days, and it has limited production ability.

2. the meat, it decays fast, in 2 weeks, less than 3 weeks, let's put it 15 days, half a month. Capable of increase its productivity. And with fish are the foods resources. (Not only, if there exist foods, that decay very fast within a week, or hard to transport, or limited by productively that no surplus is possible)

3. the spear, it will 'decay'(get lost, or broken) slowly, close to a month. let's put it 25 days. Also limited in productivity, but not a food resourced, as a tool of continuing productivity. It only has value to people who can use them. And it's demand is quite fixed.

4. the wine, it will not 'decay' at all, and limited in productivity, not a food source, but a luxury, and possible necessity for people who valued they as drinks. (Especially in the place without water)

5. the shell, it will not 'decay', and almost limitless productivity. not as food, not necessity, pure luxury. and very fixed in demand with 1 apparent customer - the huntress.

As you can see, they have different decay rate, which means different trading cost. And 2 of they never do. but different in productivity. And 3 out of 5 are limited in productivity, 2 are not. And 2 are food, 3 are not. And 1 of them are tool.

The diversity and different combination, can give us some perspective on how different characters in these goods, can affect their role in trade, even their ability as commodity money. And if you understand the property of currency, you can guess quite easily which will be best suit for money. But remind you, not the only one possible. In the story I delivery left out how a bucket of wine is measure. If they can be weighted, and divide very precisely, than it will have the property of rare metal, like gold. And a possible candidate for commodity goods. Even the spear is possible. Since it has long enough life cycle, and it just get lost, not decaying, if stored properly. In a sense it's more like a cattle, which when you (use)killed it, it will decay, but if you keep them alive(in stock), they will keep stable. And all these this thing, are in real life, being used as money. Even food has a chance to become commodity money. If new technology is developed to preserve food, that's what happened in real life, the invention of barns, or facilities with similar function, are the ancient village's vault for their "currency" (commodity money), and food supply. 1 building 2 purposes.
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Currency is not excessive, but a necessity.
The stark assumption:
Individuals trade with each other only through the intermediation of specialist traders called: shops.
Nelson and Winter:
The challenge to an evolutionary formation is this: it must provide an analysis that at least comes close to matching the power of the neoclassical theory to predict and illuminate the macro-economic patterns of growth

counting

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One may think that providing enough need, there will be trade in DF, but that's not the whole picture.

Players always had needs. Need for wood, need for armor, weaponry fast on dangerous area, the need for food/drink when water are hard to access. Player are not complaining about them, because they choose and choose for best location over and over, till they found one, or just generate a new world. A real economy system should make every location all has potential to be played with. We are not all living in one of a thousands best choice locations. Our cities depend on each others. And by trading we can make 2 distant place become one economic entity. And more entities join the party, the stronger they are. If a functional DF economy works, player should able to build a fortress at any place, just by different means. There are so many different possibilities it can be. You can build fortress solely to provide animals, a weapon factories and military giants, a commercial center on barren land, sole depend on it's convent of locations between civs. So the economy isn't just about providing what ever the player wants, that's candy for kids. But a integrated economy networks that makes impossible possible by itself.
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Currency is not excessive, but a necessity.
The stark assumption:
Individuals trade with each other only through the intermediation of specialist traders called: shops.
Nelson and Winter:
The challenge to an evolutionary formation is this: it must provide an analysis that at least comes close to matching the power of the neoclassical theory to predict and illuminate the macro-economic patterns of growth

CaptApollo12

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So the question is - simply put: what is your reccomendation for DF as a whole finished game?
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marvalis

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Without reading the entire thread, but looking at your first post and the tile of this thread, I would like to say that:
You wanted a balanced economy based on comparative advantage (supply/demand differences) in a world where people cannot even read maps and share locations? Good luck with that. If A) towns know where they come from (have a map of the known world) and B) caravans calculate comparative advantage upon arriving in another town and make long term trade agreement based on the results, then maybe you can succeed. Good luck.
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peskyninja

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I'm brain dead,now I need to kill someone  :P (yes,I've read the entire thread.)
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Andeerz

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This is the best economics suggestion thread I've read in this entire forum and I want counting's suggestions to be in the game and/or taken heavily into account when modeling economy in the game.  OMG.  Braingasm.  Toady, please read this thread!!!

And I agree with the vision counting has for how the game would ideally be, and the ideal role of guilds in DF (which are similar to what they did/do in real life). 

The kind of modeling suggestions made by counting would, I think, also set the stage for a realistic and plausible model for technological progression among civs...
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Loud Whispers

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Toady, please read this thread!!!

Seems kinda counter intuitive if you post in the same thread...
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