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Author Topic: Obama Pulling the Rug on Israel?  (Read 13009 times)

Sheb

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Re: Obama Pulling the Rug on Israel?
« Reply #225 on: May 24, 2011, 05:12:02 pm »

Also, am I the only one who dislike everyone referring to Israel as the Jewish State? And Bibi's demand that the Palestinian recogize it as a Jewish State? 25% of Israeli aren't Jewish at all, and that proportion is growing.

Honestly, can you imagine Barack Obama referring to the US as "The Christian State" and asking other nations to recognize it as such or forget their recognition, trade rights and diplomatic relations?
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nenjin

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Re: Obama Pulling the Rug on Israel?
« Reply #226 on: May 24, 2011, 05:16:34 pm »

On the first part, some Republicans in America have wanted official declarations on our language, religion ect.... for decades. It's never passed the discussion phase and never will. And no elected American president would walk blindly into that sort of mistake. They'd be tied to the desk in their oval office by their staff long before that happened.

The second part seems even less likely, even for the crackpots. Even zealots realize you don't take a massive dump on international trade over something like religious identity. I mean, if Bin Laden drank Pepsi and Coke....
« Last Edit: May 24, 2011, 05:19:04 pm by nenjin »
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Africa

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Re: Obama Pulling the Rug on Israel?
« Reply #227 on: May 24, 2011, 06:49:45 pm »

Also, am I the only one who dislike everyone referring to Israel as the Jewish State? And Bibi's demand that the Palestinian recogize it as a Jewish State? 25% of Israeli aren't Jewish at all, and that proportion is growing.

Honestly, can you imagine Barack Obama referring to the US as "The Christian State" and asking other nations to recognize it as such or forget their recognition, trade rights and diplomatic relations?

Well, there's hardly a comparison between Jewish and Christian. One third of the world is Christian. There's an ongoing debate in Israel (well, among some) about what it even means to be a Jewish state when like you said, 25% aren't Jewish, and 20% are Palestinian, and don't identify with the state for obvious reasons but don't want their citizenship taken away. But the problem isn't that it's a Jewish state, it's that it was established with the goal of being a Jewish state in a place where, prior to the war and exile of refugees, Jews were a minority. How to solve that problem is anybody's guess. But the bigger problem is, it's trying to continue being a Jewish state but also continue holding on to territory inhabited by 2.5 million (and growing fast) Arabs who can never be given citizenship because that would destroy the character of the state.

So you have options - annex the West Bank and its population, and in decades, Jews will be a minority in Israel. Nobody wants that.

Or, get rid out of the West Bank, like everybody's been telling you to for decades. But if you do that, you have the (admittedly somewhat legitimate, although it's been shamelessly exploited for bullshit reasons to the point that everyone sees it as bullshit by now) fact that the shape of Israel makes it somewhat vulnerable to attack. And worse, you have hundreds of thousands of settlers, a minority of whom are crazy and violent enough to fight against their own country if it tries to force them to evacuate, and nobody would ever imagine in their wildest dreams that the IDF would use the force needed to remove them.

The other problem with the above option is the allegation that if a Palestinian state is formed in the '67 borders, it will instantly become a launching pad for a new war against Israel. The politicians selling this know it's bullshit, but their audiences don't. Obviously it would make no strategic sense for any Palestinian government, even Hamas, to allow such things, since it would mean the instant re-obliteration of their country. Nobody can guarantee that in 300 years things won't change, but let's face it, in 300 years we have no guarantee that humanity will still exist, much less the current configuration of nation-states, and certainly not any of the current realities in a region like the Middle East. Asking for guarantees of safety (and then refusing to admit that the Arab countries would ever in fact make peace with Israel, rather than just ceaselessly plotting to destroy it at an opportune moment) in a region like this is absurd. Nobody says Israel can't keep having the strongest military in the region, just that they can't use it to oppress an entire population in order to take the best of its land and natural resources.

So what other options are there? Well, there's to straight up do another ethnic cleansing and kick all the Arabs out from west of the Jordan. Or annex the West Bank but don't offer citizenship to the people there, creating a full-on apartheid regime (rather than the for-all-practical-purposes apartheid regime that currently exists). Or nuke Iran and somehow start a huge war during which all the Arabs will somehow end up not on Israel's side of the river (kind of overlaps with the first one in this paragraph). But those would result in Israel getting real pariah state treatment, putting their current complaining in perspective.

Basically, the "get out of the West Bank" option is the only one that won't certainly destroy Israel as a Jewish state. That the people in charge can't comprehend this boggles my mind. I have no idea what they think is going to happen if they maintain the status quo, which is what they're trying their damndest to be able to do.

The one possible way to avoid having to do this completely is to go into negotiations with the Palestinians. This means freezing settlements, which means pissing off the rightists, but shit, I mean sometimes you have to piss people off to save your country. If you go into negotiations, you have the chance of holding onto some of the western edges of the West Bank maybe and then central Israel won't be quite so skinny. Of course then you have the major challenge of trying to figure out what land you'll swap to the Palestinians in exchange for Beitar Illit and the other blocs. I doubt anybody in the Jezreel Valley or the south Judean Hills or the Gilboa will be jumping to volunteer their neighborhood for transfer and you'll have to sell the entire country on that too.

Again, I can't figure out why it is that rightist politicians act as if these realities don't exist. Have they really fooled themselves into thinking Israel can exist for more than 30 or 40 more years with the current setup? Do they just hope some magical solution will fall out of the sky and/or God will provide miracles? I have no clue. But come September, the entire world is going to start the pressure and soon they won't have any more of a chance to resolve things on anything remotely resembling their terms. And well, if the voters keep supporting them, they're pretty much also getting what they deserve.

And the piss poor excuses have to stop. Before Fatah and Hamas reconciled, Netanyahu's gang made the excuse that negotiations could accomplish nothing because the PA wouldn't be representing all the Palestinians. Now that they have reconciled, they have the excuse that they can't negotiate because Hamas are terrorists - and they're telling Fateh to "tear up" the agreement with Hamas. For what? So they can go back to the original excuse, I guess?
« Last Edit: May 24, 2011, 06:57:21 pm by Africa »
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nenjin

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Re: Obama Pulling the Rug on Israel?
« Reply #228 on: May 24, 2011, 06:59:30 pm »

Quote
pissing off the rightists

And this is the point at which the Israeli-Palestinian issue begins to make some sense to anyone else in the world with a government and political parties. Appealing to what is probably the smaller but more influential segment of Israeli politics is what keeps them in power and able to chart their future.

Add to the fact you have:

Quote
And worse, you have hundreds of thousands of settlers, a minority of whom are crazy and violent enough to fight against their own country if it tries to force them to evacuate, and nobody would ever imagine in their wildest dreams that the IDF would use the force needed to remove them.

As yet another leg of the table and yeah, you can see why what's probably best for Israel is probably the thing that's least likely to happen right now. Signs of weakness are important in politics and I'd imagine no where moreso than Israeli politics. What's often rational is usually characterized as weakness by those who stand to lose from it.
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ILikePie

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Re: Obama Pulling the Rug on Israel?
« Reply #229 on: May 25, 2011, 08:31:37 am »

Also, am I the only one who dislike everyone referring to Israel as the Jewish State? And Bibi's demand that the Palestinian recogize it as a Jewish State? 25% of Israeli aren't Jewish at all, and that proportion is growing.
Israel was founded as "The Jewish State." Herzl's original idea was to set up a place were Jews could go to escape antisemitism in Europe. Ben-Gurion saw it as a Jewish state as well.

Today, Jews can automatically gain citizenship in Israel just by being Jewish. Israel isn't officially a "Jewish" state, but it definitely works like one.
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RedKing

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Re: Obama Pulling the Rug on Israel?
« Reply #230 on: May 25, 2011, 08:45:25 am »

Yeah, but Jewish is both a religious identity and an ethnic identity. Which "Jewish" was intended?

Ethnic states were all the rage in the 1st half of the 20th century. Not so much today. Religious states....well, they have a nasty tendency to become very unfriendly places to non-believers. Which flies in the face of the UN Declaration of Human Rights and generally accepted international norms.
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sluissa

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Re: Obama Pulling the Rug on Israel?
« Reply #231 on: May 25, 2011, 05:35:55 pm »

Which flies in the face of the UN Declaration of Human Rights and generally accepted international norms.

Since when has that mattered?
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Sheb

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Re: Obama Pulling the Rug on Israel?
« Reply #232 on: May 26, 2011, 09:02:25 am »

Well, basically Israel's whole line of defense is that they're the good democrats in a rough Middle-East. So it does matter.
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Africa

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Re: Obama Pulling the Rug on Israel?
« Reply #233 on: May 26, 2011, 09:13:04 am »

Yeah, but not really. They openly flaunt standards of human rights as freely as other dictators do. Also, their line of defense is more than they can blow up anybody else's military in the region. The whole PR thing...well they seem to have given up on that since the past 20 years have been a losing battle.
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Zangi

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Re: Obama Pulling the Rug on Israel?
« Reply #234 on: May 26, 2011, 09:30:43 am »

The only PR that matters to Israel are the US 'decision-makers' and the Jewish people it caters to.
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nenjin

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Re: Obama Pulling the Rug on Israel?
« Reply #235 on: May 26, 2011, 09:35:39 am »

That's not exactly true. Even if they don't like or trust anyone on their borders, their perception of Israel has an impact on their long-term security. If the IDF started walking through Gaza gunning down residents, and they spun it as "**** 'em", they'd have the war they worry about so much.
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Zangi

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Re: Obama Pulling the Rug on Israel?
« Reply #236 on: May 26, 2011, 10:07:58 am »

That's not exactly true. Even if they don't like or trust anyone on their borders, their perception of Israel has an impact on their long-term security. If the IDF started walking through Gaza gunning down residents, and they spun it as "**** 'em", they'd have the war they worry about so much.
I'd figure that as 'common sense' and/or a sense of restraint... not a PR campaign.
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Sheb

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Re: Obama Pulling the Rug on Israel?
« Reply #237 on: May 26, 2011, 10:32:16 am »

Well, they do try to do PR from time to time. They're just terrible at it.
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Africa

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Re: Obama Pulling the Rug on Israel?
« Reply #238 on: May 26, 2011, 10:37:02 am »

That's not exactly true. Even if they don't like or trust anyone on their borders, their perception of Israel has an impact on their long-term security. If the IDF started walking through Gaza gunning down residents, and they spun it as "**** 'em", they'd have the war they worry about so much.

I don't think so, because outside of Israel and some circles in the US (oh, and the entire US congress, apparently) nobody buys their PR stories anyway. How many people bought their version of Cast Lead? They have basically no credibility in the world, but that doesn't mean war is rushing in on them. Jordan and Egypt have no interest in that (even if Egypt is risking a huge incident right now by opening Rafah); Syria would only as a distraction from their internal problems (and they're not starting anything anyway) and everybody knows even if everybody is pissed at Israel and supports the Palestinians, they'd certainly still become pariahs by attacking Israel.

Actually their PR used to be quite good. Then people found out who the Palestinians were, and were like, holy shit! It's all been downhill (for Israel) from there. What's crazy is, what put the Palestinians and their cause on the map? Terrorism in the 70's. That's the lesson kids, sometimes terrorism really does work. You just have to renounce it later and become legit, because that's how most independence struggles go.
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nenjin

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Re: Obama Pulling the Rug on Israel?
« Reply #239 on: May 26, 2011, 10:50:17 am »

Weren't some members of the Israeli government basically an anti-Palestianian terror group that legitimized and joined the Israeli government, sort of around that time?
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