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Author Topic: Obama Pulling the Rug on Israel?  (Read 13052 times)

Knight of Fools

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Obama Pulling the Rug on Israel?
« on: May 19, 2011, 06:12:09 pm »

The President's announcement today that Israel needs to withdraw to the pre-1967 War Border lines is one that surprised me.  I simply don't understand it - He's telling the United State's only stable ally in the Middle East to give back land that it won as a result of a counter attack?  Land that is an important, if small, buffer against surrounding countries that only want to destroy the Jews, even.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not doom saying - I don't think anything major is going to happen as a result of this.  Israel certainly isn't happy about Obama jumping the gun and telling them what they're going to do about their land, and they're not going to give it up without a literal fight.  But even if it were given up, it wouldn't have the desired affect of pacifying anti-Jewish sentiments in the Mid-East.  A lot of people won't be happy until all of the Jews have been completely annihilated.  Giving them that land is only going to enable more anti-Jewish violence.

It seems a touch odd to me, and I'm not sure what he's trying to do - I'm not sure if he recognizes that most Americans like Israel.  I'm sure die-hard Obama fans will still vote for him and defend him, but I'm surprised that he'd risk pushing independent voters away from him.

There's just a lot of "Why?" floating around the whole thing - For me, at least.

So, can anyone make sense of this?  Do you think it's a good idea?  What's going on here?
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Bouchart

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Re: Obama Pulling the Rug on Israel?
« Reply #1 on: May 19, 2011, 06:21:03 pm »

It didn't surprise me one bit.  Obama's a closet Muslim.
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Knight of Fools

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Re: Obama Pulling the Rug on Israel?
« Reply #2 on: May 19, 2011, 06:23:25 pm »

I don't think that's a fair accusation.
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Leafsnail

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Re: Obama Pulling the Rug on Israel?
« Reply #3 on: May 19, 2011, 06:26:25 pm »

Not to mention the fact that it is completely and utterly irrelevant to his views on Israel.
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Aqizzar

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Re: Obama Pulling the Rug on Israel?
« Reply #4 on: May 19, 2011, 06:30:22 pm »

So, can anyone make sense of this?  Do you think it's a good idea?  What's going on here?

What's going on here is diplomacy, instead of slavish worship of America's only Judeo-Christian ally in the Middle East.  He's telling the Israelis that they do in fact have to abide by treaties they've signed.  He's also telling the Arabic world that America is willing to work with their countries (like all the new governments that are going to be cropping up over the next year or so), and that America will stop enabling the rampant abuse of the Palestinians and their treaty-bound land by unconditional support of the Israeli government.  While there will always be crazy people that want to wipe Israel off the map, it's not 1966 anymore and about 90% of the Arabic world, especially Israel's neighbors, would be happy to tolerate its existence if they would just stop being such dicks all the time.

I'm overstating the attitude a bit, but you get the idea.  The point is, Israel is not on an eternal precipice of destruction by the ravening hordes, and are not absolved for all time from holding up their end of bargains just because they're Israel.  And it's about time some President actually told them that.
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nenjin

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Re: Obama Pulling the Rug on Israel?
« Reply #5 on: May 19, 2011, 06:31:08 pm »

Obama has a whole New Middle East policy he's pushing, in the wake of Bin Laden. The figurehead is dead, now it's time to try and show solidarity with as many Muslim nations as possible to earn their respect and cooperation. Vocally disagreeing with Israel's stated position on the border issue and annoying them is a small price to pay, in his mind, for the support he could earn with Muslim governments. He's spending Israeli diplomatic capital to buy diplomatic capital in other places.

I'm sure Israel is annoyed. But when you've got a reputation for being totally immune to pressure, force or coercion, I'm sure it causes others to ask why they should hoard your good favor. Israel can't be influenced one way or another, so why not reach out to the opposition. I can definitely see this hurting Obama with Jewish voters come election though.

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« Last Edit: May 19, 2011, 06:32:41 pm by nenjin »
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Africa

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Re: Obama Pulling the Rug on Israel?
« Reply #6 on: May 19, 2011, 06:48:19 pm »

Land that is an important, if small, buffer against surrounding countries that only want to destroy the Jews, even.

 A lot of people won't be happy until all of the Jews have been completely annihilated.  Giving them that land is only going to enable more anti-Jewish violence.


You get these wacky notions floating around unchallenged in Israeli and pro-Israeli circles, but if you want to understand why things happen the way they happen in the real world, you have to discard them and start looking at things in terms of something vaguely resembling reality.

The number of people who are dedicated to annihilating all the Jews is effectively nonexistent. The number of people who are dedicated to destroying the state of Israel (not, you may notice, the same thing as killing all the Jews) is somewhat larger, but still negligible. The number of people that hate Israel for reasons irrational, rational, or a mix of both in the Arab world is bigger still, but to suggest that the idle political leanings of a guy on the street of Amman is the same as an entire middle east frothing at the mouth to wipe out Israel is absurd. Basically, this kind of idea can be perpetuated so easily because the people who toss it around have no idea what they're talking about, and certainly haven't been to any Arab countries or even Arab towns in Israel.

And by the way, the huge majority of the borders of the territory Israel controls are with countries Israel is at peace with. If you don't know what I'm talking about, you're out of your depth. Then, within the territory Israel controls, there's the bizarre quasi-border with the West Bank, except that even the Israeli government solidly refuses to define where any such border might be, except by where they've put the separation barrier. The entire rest of the planet including the Palestinians (even Hamas! Holy crap!) is in agreement about where that border ought to be, and that's specifically what Obama's talking about here, and the fact that the border is ill-defined isn't the fault of anyone but the Israeli right wing and the settler lobby.

So now that this nonsense is put aside, we can begin to discuss why Obama might "pull the rug" on Israel. First, let's establish he's doing nothing of the kind: he's pandering to a number of Netanyahu's ridiculous demands. One, that the Palestinian state be demilitarized. What an absurd double standard! Two, that Palestinians recognize Israel "As the home of the Jewish people." The PLO recognized Israel two decades ago; the demand that they update that to say "as the home of the Jewish people" was introduced very recently when Netanyahu realized peace negotiations were dangerously close to producing some kind of forward progress. It's purely semantic, stupid (wait, so Israel needs its alleged enemies to validate what it is?) and purely intended to both prevent progress and, if the PA were to do it, to give future Israeli administrations something to point to whenever refugees (who didn't vote for the PA and thus aren't represented by what it does anyhow) demand their right to return.

Finally, as long as Obama keeps up the alliance, huge amounts of economic and military aid to Israel, and continues blocking any attempts to censure them in the UN Security Council, two things will be true: One, he will be doing anything but "pull the rug" out from under Israel, and two, no progress will ever be made. The comparison is often made to Bush I, who knew how to apply pressure to hardline Israeli governments like the current one: Suspending handouts, at a time when they were facing huge amounts of immigration; and then when AIPAC went nuts, complained publicly about the huge amount of lobbyists employed. What happened? Israelis ditched Shamir and elected Rabin, who went on to accomplish something. Except then the same right-wingers who are obstructing progress now, shot him dead, and accomplished their own goal of maintaining the status quo. If Obama knew how to do the same thing, we might start to see something happen.

The final, and biggest, concession to Netanyahu, is continuing to say he won't support unilateral Palestinian moves to declare statehood. Coming from the president of a nation whose entire reason to exist is built on the foundation of the right to self-determination, this is insanely hypocritical, but hardly the least hypocritical thing an American president does. Still, when the entire rest of the world is moving towards supporting the Palestinians in this move (since they see Netanyahu's stalling and stonewalling tactics for what they are) he's just painting himself as more and more of a slavish lackey of the pathetic prime minister who literally hasn't done anything in his entire second tenure in office and who is regularly humiliated by his own unruly coalition partners.

This isn't intended for the OP, of course; anyone who in all seriousness can't distinguish between the Palestinian move toward statehood and some kind of terrorist plot against Israel isn't going to be able to take part in a reasonable discussion of this issue. But it should give some on-the-ground orientation for everybody else.

As for the part about Israel not giving up the West Bank without a literal fight - probably true. And even if the IDF isn't fighting, the settlers sure as hell will. Ideally, the IDF would be sicced onto them to siege them out, but pigs will fly first. More likely, the state of Palestine will be declared, and Netanyahu will be like "OK, make us leave." Then nothing changes, but more and more countries start sanctioning and isolating Israel, and this process drags on for decades, hurting the Palestinians most of all, ironically. From there - who can say? Bombing Iran will absolutely 100% become part of it at some point if Netanyahu has anything to say about it.

Edit: I just heard a speech clip. Fortunately, there's one insane Netanyahu demand he's not bowing to - the one about Israel keeping the Jordan Valley (i.e., turning the "state of Palestine" into something like an Indian reservation)
« Last Edit: May 19, 2011, 07:14:21 pm by Africa »
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mainiac

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Re: Obama Pulling the Rug on Israel?
« Reply #7 on: May 19, 2011, 07:15:50 pm »

Israel is an American ally?  News to me.  What do they give us that remotely justifies the huge money sink and diplomatic anchor that they are for us?
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Burnt Pies

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Re: Obama Pulling the Rug on Israel?
« Reply #8 on: May 19, 2011, 07:31:15 pm »

A brilliant topic for dinnertime conversations?

Gotta say, it's about time Israel got told 'no'. Hoping it'll be a recurring thing, rather than just a brief glimmer of hope.
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Africa

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Re: Obama Pulling the Rug on Israel?
« Reply #9 on: May 19, 2011, 07:37:20 pm »

The most insane part of all this (well, ok, not the most insane at all. But AN insane part of this) is that presidents being "hard on Israel" or not being "friends of Israel" is in fact the best thing they could do for Israel. Israelis like to go on rants about how if there's a Palestinian state they'll be under rocket attack constantly and blah blah blah. Ok - maybe they will. There is a greater than zero chance of it. but that's certainly not an existential threat - Israel will survive. But what if they DON'T pull out of the West Bank? What if the occupation goes on forever? Then there is a 100% percent chance that Israel will not survive as a Jewish democratic state. Because before long there'll be more Arabs than Jews in Mandatory Palestine and when that happens, Israel will be just another South Africa.

So, Israel survives with a chance of scattered rocket attacks? Or Israel ceases to exist? Which one is better for Israel? Oddly, what the Israeli right will (repeatedly, often hysterically) try to tell you is that the best thing for Israel is what will in fact lead to the second alternative.
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ChairmanPoo

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Re: Obama Pulling the Rug on Israel?
« Reply #10 on: May 19, 2011, 07:56:10 pm »

I think it goes beyond that. What if US support faltered? It would leave Israel stranded amid millions of very resented arabs. I think that for Israel's continued existence it's a sinequanon condition to tone down the tensions in the area.
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Africa

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Re: Obama Pulling the Rug on Israel?
« Reply #11 on: May 19, 2011, 08:27:07 pm »

That too. It won't happen anytime soon though. People are too oblivious to the world around them.
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ChairmanPoo

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Re: Obama Pulling the Rug on Israel?
« Reply #12 on: May 19, 2011, 08:35:24 pm »

I did not necessarily mean that the US support would falter voluntarily. Imagine we hit an even nastier economical crisis.
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Re: Obama Pulling the Rug on Israel?
« Reply #13 on: May 19, 2011, 09:09:12 pm »

So, Israel survives with a chance of scattered rocket attacks?
<weather>Now looking at the 3 day forecast Friday and Saturday will be hot and sunny. There's a slight chance of scattered rocket attacks on Sunday so be sure to carry your kevlar umbrellas.</weather>
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Re: Obama Pulling the Rug on Israel?
« Reply #14 on: May 19, 2011, 09:17:09 pm »

So, Israel survives with a chance of scattered rocket attacks?
<weather>Now looking at the 3 day forecast Friday and Saturday will be hot and sunny. There's a slight chance of scattered rocket attacks on Sunday so be sure to carry your kevlar umbrellas.</weather>
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