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Author Topic: UK AV referendum. Yes or No?  (Read 4122 times)

Starver

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Re: UK AV referendum. Yes or No?
« Reply #30 on: April 29, 2011, 06:04:33 am »

[...] On the other hand, I'm a little concerned about the possibility that every candidate (who is seriously trying to win, at least) would [...] 'spread bet' his promises so as to grab a few second-preference votes from other candidates' natural set of supporters. [..]

You mean they're not doing this now?

Let's say there's Lab and Con as the major players, Libs as traditional woeful third party and loads of minorities.  Lab may promise a Lab-with-a-bit-of-Lib policy to get the edge over Con, Con may promise Con-with-a-bit-of-Lib policy to get an edge over Lab.  They probably won't promise much more 'Greenicity' or Nationalism than their national party is already veering towards, because there's no point, but draw some Lib voters into making an "unwasted vote" (...I already said what I think about the idea of there being 'wasted votes'...) for your party could be what you need to better your main rivals.

It could be different, but in general the significant but no-chance 3rd player (whichever that might be, and could be a popular independent guy, but with a one-policy prospectus) is the one to target.  Under FPTP, if you're going to go down the route of courting rivals' supporters, concentrate on them.  Under AV, though, you might just give additional credibility and "they're almost like me!" appearance to them.  If your major opponent picks up >50% from scraping the bottom of the barrel, when you went from the cream at the top (to mix the metaphors) you've lost by the time it matters.  You need to target him and the low-end candidate's followers.

Different situations, different results, of course.  And hard cases make bad laws, so don't take this (or indeed similar cases about how FPTP caused a particular chanced-upon/carefully-crafted 'unfair' situation) as reason to go with the other method.  I can argue against both methods, except at the moment I've seen so much more "Yes" being opined that I'm being inclined towards only explaining why I think that's a wrong decision.  I'm so indecisive about this whole issue, I may well not even vote.  Voting "RON", by my absence, perhaps. :)
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Jreengus

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Re: UK AV referendum. Yes or No?
« Reply #31 on: April 29, 2011, 09:21:55 am »

Spoiler (click to show/hide)
1. Tell me how hung parliaments are a bad thing and we'll talk.
2. The BNP are voting against this because it would hurt. Small extremist parties tend to do worse because they have to get 50% of the voters to pick them as a preference, then if they do win it's because a lot of people wanted them. If you have a problem with the BNP getting in when the majority of people support them then you have a problem with democracy not with AV.
3. Ok this a pro. Are you seriously saying this as an argument against AV? That people will be able to vote for the party they support rather than being forced to vote for someone they dislike to prevent someone they hate from getting in?
4.This is a logical fallacy known as the appeal to popularity. The number of countries using the system has nothing to do with how good it is. It may be that only a few countries use it because it's bad but if that's the case then you should have lots of nice juicy reasons not to use it, but even then the reasons you come up with would be the argument against it not the fact that it isn't widely used itself. If I'm the only person in the world with a magical genie lamp that gives me three wishes and you get the chance to have one too you wouldn't turn it down because only one person has one. You might turn it down because you know that the genie inside is a trickster genie who'll twist your wishes to be bad but that's unrelated to the number of people who own one. When looking at it you should be thinking why does only one person own a genie lamp/4 countries have AV. In the genie lamp example it's because genie lamps are so incredibly rare. With AV it's because especially in a two party FPTP system switching to AV requires that the parties which lose most in the change make the change.
5. Under AV everyone's vote counts for the same, it essentially works by having a series of elections without the cost of holding each individual election. At the end of each election the votes are counted up if one person got 50%+1 they win, otherwise another election is "held" immediately after with the least popular candidate eliminated. If someone voted for the unpopular candidate as their #1 then their number 2 vote is counted. Anti AV campaigners claim that this means their vote has counted twice and this is true, the thing is if you voted for a popular party who is still in the running your vote is counted again too so your vote has counted twice as well. Of course they helpfully neglect to mention that and claim that your vote has somehow counted for less because you weren't forced to change it.
6. Yes it's is slightly more complicated. Ranking your candidates in order of preference is harder than making a mark in a box. But on the other hand anyone with a primary school education should be capable of writing a list of numbers. It's still extremely simple so this one comes down to a matter of opinion. Do you think it's worth ballots being a tiny bit harder to fill in?

Bonus: You didn't mention cost, which is disappointing because it's one of the few valid points I've seen against AV, so I'm going to throw it out there.

I tried to be as factual as possible while writing that as a list of complaints against AV analysed from a neutral viewpoint it probably seems rabidly AV but that's because the arguments against it are generally so terrible and they really annoy me. A lot of people are probably going to vote no to AV based on a group of lies and fallacies.
« Last Edit: April 29, 2011, 10:37:26 am by Jreengus »
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MorleyDev

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Re: UK AV referendum. Yes or No?
« Reply #32 on: April 29, 2011, 09:46:51 am »

We don't think the holocaust was wrong because only the Nazis supported doing it. We think it was wrong because it's genocide.

Actually got to disagree with you here. If the majority of people agreed the holocaust was for the best (and it obviously wasn't) it wouldn't have been wrong. Some democratic places still have the death penalty because the majority of people there think it for the best, ergo in that context it's not wrong. You'd simply have to be operating on a larger scale of acceptance for the holocaust to be considered not wrong. Heck, I'd go as far as to suggest morality as a whole is just a matter of majority-opinion and so what is right or wrong depends on the group in question.

Even then that's an issue of morality, not practicality like this is.

I guess the problem is the way in the UK we have a seat-based system of politics, where a party needs majority of the seats to be in power. And the argument of "the runner up can get in!" seems more like an argument of "you're runner up can get in!" since if they win, then they weren't the runner up...

I wonder if they've tested this system with independently operated smaller-scale tests? Get an unbiased third party to grab random people around the country and get them to use the proposed system? It'd make sense to do that if you ask me.
« Last Edit: April 29, 2011, 10:19:39 am by MorleyDev »
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ChairmanPoo

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Re: UK AV referendum. Yes or No?
« Reply #33 on: April 29, 2011, 10:06:34 am »

Quote
Actually got to disagree with you here. If the majority of people agreed the holocaust was for the best (and it obviously wasn't) it wouldn't have been wrong

So in your opinion morality is established by consensus? I strongly disagree. How many people support an idea has no bearing on whether it's right, and it's opponents wrong (or viceversa). It merely shows how acceptable within the general public that idea is.
« Last Edit: April 29, 2011, 10:09:02 am by ChairmanPoo »
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MorleyDev

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Re: UK AV referendum. Yes or No?
« Reply #34 on: April 29, 2011, 10:15:53 am »

Which is right and wrong. Morality isn't an absolute, after all. Right and wrong are defined and constructed within society around that societies norms, mores and values. Change the norms, mores and values, change the society, and you change what is right and what is wrong.

And again, the referendum is a matter of practicality, not morality. Norms, mores and values aren't significantly related to either of the proposed voting systems, from what I can see, so using the holocaust was a silly example to use.
« Last Edit: April 29, 2011, 10:18:54 am by MorleyDev »
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ChairmanPoo

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Re: UK AV referendum. Yes or No?
« Reply #35 on: April 29, 2011, 10:27:25 am »

Again, you are mistaking the popularity of an opinion with morality itself. As you well point out, morality isn't absolute. If out of 100 people, 60 are in favor, of, say, applying the death penalty to jaywalking, the remaining 40 aren't going to shrug and think "Guess we were wrong after all!". That the former idea is more popular might determine whether jaywalkers are executed or not, but it doesn't make it right or wrong. Supporters will think it's right, regardless of how many people think the contrary, and opponents will think it's wrong, no matter how many people support. Which is pretty tautological, when you think about it.
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Jreengus

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Re: UK AV referendum. Yes or No?
« Reply #36 on: April 29, 2011, 10:32:06 am »

Well I mainly used the holocaust because it was something I wasn't expecting anyone to argue over. Editing the post to something less subjective.
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MorleyDev

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Re: UK AV referendum. Yes or No?
« Reply #37 on: April 29, 2011, 10:45:21 am »

But the morality of the group will always be the most commonly expressed morality and we take our own morality from the society we are raised in -.- The society as a whole will judge is right and righteous even if there are some who disagree. Since he said "we don't think the holocaust was wrong because...we think it wrong because...", I've been simply suggesting if society were to change, which require (and probably be caused by) a majority opinion change within the society, then even if in the minority that disapproved we'd likely change or at least adapt or curb our individual morality and sense of right and wrong with it, and even if we somehow didn't the following generations certainly would.

XD Holocaust -> Magic Genie. Heh, dunno why but I find that switch amusing :) Personally I'd have gone with the old quote that basically said (paraphrased) "the widespread opinion that the earth was flat did nothing to make it less round"
« Last Edit: April 29, 2011, 11:07:21 am by MorleyDev »
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olemars

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Re: UK AV referendum. Yes or No?
« Reply #38 on: April 29, 2011, 10:50:09 am »

I'm going to cautiously point out that the current trajectory of discussion has little to do with election systems, in the hope that the next time I look at this thread I don't have to wade through 10 pages of pointlessness.
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MorleyDev

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Re: UK AV referendum. Yes or No?
« Reply #39 on: April 29, 2011, 10:53:22 am »

I'm going to cautiously point out that the current trajectory of discussion has little to do with election systems, in the hope that the next time I look at this thread I don't have to wade through 10 pages of pointlessness.

Yeah sorry, I kept trying to steer back by adding things to the end about the actual topic to keep it relatively relevant but...yeah, that didn't work. I'm happy to start or join in on a topic on the nature of people's morality if people want, it's a truly fascinating subject.

Anyway yeah, I wonder if perhaps an independent test could be done? Grab people, get them to use the proposed voting system, gather opinions on it etc. And if so, has it been? If not, why the heck not?
« Last Edit: April 29, 2011, 10:56:38 am by MorleyDev »
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MonkeyHead

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Re: UK AV referendum. Yes or No?
« Reply #40 on: April 29, 2011, 11:13:15 am »

Forgot this one earlier when giving my opinions... lets try and get this train heading back to the station.

Reason 4: The political dividing lines between parties in the UK are blurred enough as it is - there is little that seems to distinguish them. So much so infact that the current coalition is formed between traditionally polar opposites. If the voting system changes from "most votes wins" to "become the least objectionable" then I worry that politiicans will try and stand for even less, and insead have even more "beige", "on the fence" opinions in order to build a broad base of followers without actually standing for anything, lookng to build up a large number of 2nd or 3rd preference votes. I suppose you could argue that in the current system a politician could try the same idea, but they would have a lot more to gain in an AV system by not holding stong opinions. The way I see it with FPTP a politician has more to gain having a discernable opinion one way or another which would appeal to a sector of voters - somthing which may hurt them under an AV system where this opinon could sway 2nd and 3rd choices.

Quote
Counter reason 1.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Y3jE3B8HsE
That explains it, and has already been posted. It is also worth watching this,
http://www.youtube.com/user/CGPGrey#p/u/3/s7tWHJfhiyo
It shows how the current system can work against your preference, as voters will be split between two similar candidates, so a more radical view might win, because they get all the votes for that specific view, despite being a minority.

Seen both them quite a bit and plenty more though the BBC. I accept that its a personality trait I have that means I cant accept someone who would be "traditionally" second or worse as a winner. I personally think that the way 2 similar candidates can lose out under the current system is a good thing - it punishes people for not having clear defining values. SHould a more radical candidate win, well done to them for getting thier message across and appealing to enough people to win - example - the Green MP for Brighton sends a clear message that the people in that region were sick of the same old men in suits saying the same things.

Quote
Counter reason 2.
You are saying something like it is fact, but without evidence, this is opinion. Can't really argue opinion.

The ststement did come wih a rider: "Well, thats how I see it anyway". I might be wrong, but I will be really suprised if AV passes if there will be another voting reform within our lifetimes. If it doesnt, I suspect a second referendum will be offered by Labour or Conservatives as a dangled carrot to the LibDems should the next general election turn out tight again.

Quote
Counter reason 3.
Well that is some what of a cognitive distortion, as a single instance does not mean that the two party system is better.

Not sure what you mean here - basically what I wanted to say (but probably didnt communicate very clearly as my strength of feeling probably outweighs my command of english) is that I have become anti-LibDem as I feel they have abandoned a lot of what they stand for by getting cosy with the Conservatives, and see a No vote on AV as part of this feeling, as is my opposition to the tuition fees nonsence they have gone along with, and the continued cuts to public services (which traditionally they would hve opposed) which will lead to me going on strike shortly - but more of that when it happens.

Whilst the BBC has done some very good explaining of the AV system and how it should produce similar results to FPTP (one with crisp flavours which showed prawn cocktail is most popular... (?!?) and one with choc bars), there is a scene in Auf Wiedersehn Pet where the paint colour for thier dorm is chosen using AV. After aruging if blue, green or red would be best, it ends up yellow, but noone actually "likes" yellow, no-one voted yellow as first preference, everyone in the dorm thought that yellow was ok...

ed boy

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Re: UK AV referendum. Yes or No?
« Reply #41 on: April 29, 2011, 11:34:14 am »


Firstly, I'd like to clarify not all of these arguments hold water with me. I posted them because they are relevant to some people that I know, and thus may similarly be relevant to some people here, and they had not been posted yet. Similarly, I do not want to present them as full arguments in themselves, but rather as points that should be taken into consideration.

-More hung parliaments. Very few people are fans of the current conservative/lib dem coalition, yet with AV we'd see more governments like it.
1. Tell me how hung parliaments are a bad thing and we'll talk.
Hung parties are bad because, unless a coalition is formed in order to form a majority, very little gets done. I don't know anybody who likes the current coalition, and thus I conclude that, for these people, this can be counted as a bad thing about AV, as coalitions such as this would occur more frequently. Hence, for these people at least, it is an argument against AV.
-Smaller parties fare better, but all smaller parties fare better, including extreme ones like the BNP.
--This is compounded by the fact that, under FPTP, lots of people whose first choice is a smaller party don't vote for them because they don't have a chance, and instead vote for their favourite of the candidates who have a chance. Under AV, this would change.
2. The BNP are voting against this because it would hurt. Small extremist parties tend to do worse because they have to get 50% of the voters to pick them as a preference, then if they do win it's because a lot of people wanted them. If you have a problem with the BNP getting in when the majority of people support them then you have a problem with democracy not with AV.
3. Ok this a pro. Are you seriously saying this as an argument against AV? That people will be able to vote for the party they support rather than being forced to vote for someone they dislike to prevent someone they hate from getting in?
Once again, I personally don't have any problem with smaller parties getting more votes. I added this because I know quite a few people who are so rabidly against the BNP that they consider this a point against AV.
-There are very few other countries (3?) that use AV, presumeably for a reason. Furthermore, I have heard (though I in now way present this as an absolute fact about all australians) that a large number of australians, who use AV, do not like it.
4.This is a logical fallacy known as the appeal to popularity. The number of countries using the system has nothing to do with how good it is. It may be that only a few countries use it because it's bad but if that's the case then you should have lots of nice juicy reasons not to use it, but even then the reasons you come up with would be the argument against it not the fact that it isn't widely used itself. If I'm the only person in the world with a magical genie lamp that gives me three wishes and you get the chance to have one too you wouldn't turn it down because only one person has one. You might turn it down because you know that the genie inside is a trickster genie who'll twist your wishes to be bad but that's unrelated to the number of people who own one. When looking at it you should be thinking why does only one person own a genie lamp/4 countries have AV. In the genie lamp example it's because genie lamps are so incredibly rare. With AV it's because especially in a two party FPTP system switching to AV requires that the parties which lose most in the change make the change.
Not quite right. This would only be an appeal to popularity if I said "not many other countries use AV, therefore we should not". The experience of other countries with AV does not dictate what the UK's would be, but we can say that our expeience would be similar to a degree, as the two countries share lots of factors in common. It doesn't mean that we will have the same experience, but rather that we are likely to have an expereince that is not very different.
-Some people's vote will count for more than others. There will be some people who only have their first choice count, and others who have their first, second, third, etc considered.
5. Under AV everyone's vote counts for the same, it essentially works by having a series of elections without the cost of holding each individual election. At the end of each election the votes are counted up if one person got 50%+1 they win, otherwise another election is "held" immediately after with the least popular candidate eliminated. If someone voted for the unpopular candidate as their #1 then their number 2 vote is counted. Anti AV campaigners claim that this means their vote has counted twice and this is true, the thing is if you voted for a popular party who is still in the running your vote is counted again too so your vote has counted twice as well. Of course they helpfully neglect to mention that and claim that your vote has somehow counted for less because you weren't forced to change it.
I know perfectly well how AV works. It is an undeniable fact that people who have their first choice as one of the more popular parties will have their second and third choices given a lot less consideration than someone whose first choice is a less populat party. I know people who object thoroughly to this.
-As simple as our current system (say who you would most like) results in a lot of people not understanding it (there are tales of people who think you have to 'vote them off'). The new system has a lot more ways that peole can get it wrong (e.g. do you give your favourite candidate the biggest number or the lowest one).
6. Yes it's is slightly more complicated. Ranking your candidates in order of preference is harder than making a mark in a box. But on the other hand anyone with a primary school education should be capable of writing a list of numbers. It's still extremely simple so this one comes down to a matter of opinion. Do you think it's worth ballots being a tiny bit harder to fill in?
I personally would not have any problem, but I have certainly learned that there will be quite a few people who would foul it up somehow. As I said before, this is not intented to be a full argument, but rather a point to factor in when weighing up the pros and cons.
Bonus: You didn't mention cost, which is disappointing because it's one of the few valid points I've seen against AV, so I'm going to throw it out there.
I didn't mention cost, because it had already been mentioned.
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Vattic

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Re: UK AV referendum. Yes or No?
« Reply #42 on: April 29, 2011, 11:43:28 am »

My concern with voting yes on AV is that if it passes it will be used as an excuse for no more reforms. I much prefer proportional representation even with it's problems. Still I will most likely be voting yes.
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Dutchling

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Re: UK AV referendum. Yes or No?
« Reply #43 on: April 29, 2011, 11:59:31 am »

The video was helpful but I think I prefer it the way we have it in Holland; if a party doesn't have the majority of the votes it has to team up with other parties. I thought all other countries did this but apparently not. It seems a lot more democratic imo because the government actually has 51% of the 1st votes of all of the voters and not the 2nd or 3d. Of course you can have your party forming a coalition with a party you do not like (Like we currently have with the Christian democrats and the populist anti-Muslim party) I prefer it over a system where only large parties can rule the country.

I probably misunderstood something though, because I thought in England there are 2 parties ruling the country now, so how can they have nay of the two voting systems that are explained in the video?
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olemars

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Re: UK AV referendum. Yes or No?
« Reply #44 on: April 29, 2011, 12:11:17 pm »

Quote
I probably misunderstood something though, because I thought in England there are 2 parties ruling the country now, so how can they have nay of the two voting systems that are explained in the video?

The UK is divided into several hundred voting districts, each elects one member of parliament directly and in each district there are a number of candidates. Usually one each from the three sizable parties plus a few loons.
« Last Edit: April 29, 2011, 12:12:48 pm by olemars »
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