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[Gorjo MacGrymm]

Today, as of this post, over 70 civilians have been killed by goverment forces during protests this morning.

Now will NATO have to step in again like in Libya?  At what point does this turn into a world war?  Is NATO even effective in Libya, can it even help at all?

Here are some videos from today:
http://bigpeace.com/pschweizer/2011/04/22/great-friday-protests-spread-in-syria/

warning, many are very disturbing!


I have been wresting with which protesters are looking for change in the region, and which are looking to create a coup.  Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and others who are US allies are fighting what they call "terrorist/extremist" plots to destabalize their countries - heck- Libya says the same thing.  It was thought that maybe this was behind the Egypt protests, but with continues protest there against the new ruling military junta, it seems more like a poeples movement.  Syria seems to be an honest non-coup type of movement and protest, but who can know.  The whole situation is way past the point of being scary.  Further destablization of the region could lead to some really unpleasant futures in the 1st world nations reliant upon the resources of the region.  What was once hyperbole about the dangers to the oil supplies is becoming all to real.  Wether we like it or not, this is probably going to end very very badly.  Anyone have any ideas?

[Bouchart]

Iran is behind all of this.  These are Islamist movements.

[Earthquake Damage]

Iran is behind all of this.  These are Islamist movements.

I think you give too much credit to Iran (presumably Iran's leadership, lest we posit a Persian hivemind or whatever ).

[Gorjo MacGrymm]

I am willing to entertain the idea that Iran is working behind the scenes to help push along some of these protests, but I cant help but think they are NOT doing so in Syria, who is a major ally.  Also, I am sure Iran hopes to capitalize on the protests currently affecting their enemies, but thats just par for the course for any nation.  I think that they were not the inital instgators of this shakeup tho, and that even if they were, its gone way beyond any single nations control or ability to affect.

[Phmcw]

The nato is not able to get in yet another war. Period.
Or it will have to pull a serious war effort.

[Il Palazzo]

What it might do, is turn a blind eye on governments violently pacyfing uprisings in the region. For the sake of stability, you know.
Apparently, it does so with Bahrain:
http://jurist.org/paperchase/2011/04/human-rights-organizations-criticize-rampant-abuses-in-bahrain.php
http://physiciansforhumanrights.org/library/news-2011-04-22.html
Somehow we don't hear anybody protesting their human rights abuses.

Iran is behind all of this.  These are Islamist movements.

Says which data?

[Bouchart]

I am willing to entertain the idea that Iran is working behind the scenes to help push along some of these protests, but I cant help but think they are NOT doing so in Syria, who is a major ally.  Also, I am sure Iran hopes to capitalize on the protests currently affecting their enemies, but thats just par for the course for any nation.  I think that they were not the inital instgators of this shakeup tho, and that even if they were, its gone way beyond any single nations control or ability to affect.

True to an extent, but Syria also has a fairly secular government.  I've heard that the US is covertly supporting the protesters and I've heard the same about Iran.

[Gorjo MacGrymm]

I hadnt heard that the US was behind the Syrian protests, but it makes perfect sense if it was.  The US, as a long standing ally of Israel, would jump at a chance to destabalize an Iranian ally like Syria and perhaps manuever for a more friendly goverment relation with whomever took over.

What it might do, is turn a blind eye on governments violently pacyfing uprisings in the region. For the sake of stability, you know.
Apparently, it does so with Bahrain:
http://jurist.org/paperchase/2011/04/human-rights-organizations-criticize-rampant-abuses-in-bahrain.php
http://physiciansforhumanrights.org/library/news-2011-04-22.html
Somehow we don't hear anybody protesting their human rights abuses.

Iran is behind all of this.  These are Islamist movements.

Says which data?

First I had heard of any problems beyond basic protests from Bahrain, but that might just be media bias towards an ally.  Has it gone beyond abuse of rights and injuries?  Has the crackdown in Bahrain killed civilians?  It is appaarent they are taking a very very heavy hand towards the protests, but trying to not cause outright fatalities.  Absolutely "jack-booted thuggery" tho.

[Il Palazzo]

I haven't heard of any deaths, no. But I'm not that well informed either.
I did hear some people saying(on CNN, in the same coverage that had the PFR study presented. I can't find any written source though) that people accused of harbouring anti-government sentiment were forced under torture to admit being funded by Iran.

Anyway, I'm not sure if torturing political prisoners is any better than bombing civilians.

[RedKing]

There's been quite a bit of coverage of fatalities in Syria, starting like three weeks ago. That said, I don't think NATO (or anybody else) gets involved until you actually see armed rebellion in place. Right now, it's just weekly mass protests after Friday prayers, and the commensurate government response of tear gas and live ammunition.

When and if the protesters find a way to arm themselves and actually set out to topple Assad, THEN it's prudent to talk about what the Western world does. Which, unless the Libyan situation resolves itself somewhat soon, will be next to nothing. Because Libya is already looking like a bad deal in that it's turned into a potentially long-running civil war with Western intervention by proxy, as opposed to a swift revolution a la Tunisia and Egypt.

[Gorjo MacGrymm]

True, it has been going on in Syria for weeks, and tehre have been a few deaths (four I think) up until Good Friday, where now the count for just taht day stands at over 90.  Thats a massacre.

In comparison, the infamous Boston Massacre which predated the American Revolution and was casus belli for many fighting in the revolution details 11 shot, 3 dead.

I think Syria has stepped up their enforcement quite a bit.  I think the only difference between Libya and Syria at this point is the Syrians arent mostly armed tribals, but instead modern urbanites without access to military grade weaponry.

[RedKing]

The Libyan resistance wasn't much armed either, until one guy suicide-bombed the gates to the garrison armory in Benghazi. The armed tribes in southern Libya have mostly kept out of the fighting.

All it takes to get the ball rolling is for one army unit to start arming protesters. But the dynamic is very different in Syria. Qaddafi was not on good terms with most of his army, because he didn't trust them. Assad and the Syrian high command have a much tighter working relationship.

[RF]

inb4 Islamic superstate.

Another Ottoman Empire, anyone?

[RedKing]

Not bloody likely. The whole "new Islamic Caliphate" thing is a bunch of right-wing fearmongering by guys whose knowledge of that part of the world comes from watching episodes of 24.

[RF]

Not bloody likely. The whole "new Islamic Caliphate" thing is a bunch of right-wing fearmongering by guys whose knowledge of that part of the world comes from watching episodes of 24.

True. It'd be awesome if they did, though. Sadly Islam is shattered by so much disagreement over the teachings of Mohammed.