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[hermes]

So back to the point.  For Urist and anyone else confused on the whole "America created the Taliban" (although it was more accurately al-Qaeda that the CIA created), look up pretty much anything related to Congressman Charlie Wilson, who spearheaded the effort to supply American weaponry and training to the anti-Soviet insurgency, or any books or reporting by Ahmed Rashid or Saira Shah.

Meanwhile, the Pakistani government and the CIA are still at loggerheads over the drone-strikes, but the mass spy-recall notice is more or less off the table.

I am reasonably familiar with that story, but I'm not clear on what the US relationship is with Pakistan with regards to India, former Soviet bloc countries and China.  I'd heard somewhere that one motive for going into Afghanistan was to pacify India who were worried about Pakistani militarism.  Also, there are hypotheses floating around about ISI involvement in 9/11 (requested by US).  America gives billions in military aid to Pakistan, just like Israel, has created the ISI-hydra and Pakistani nationalist-militarism... but to what end I have not the foggiest.  I can speculate on oil pipeline route control, or the threat of insurgency in west China, but that's guessing.

Can anybody explain why Pakistan is so crucial to the US (and thus, by implication, why an American withdrawal from Pakistan could be bad)?

Well, though my question remains unanswered, we can probably safely surmise that the whole CIA/Pakistan incident was on some level a staged rift to negate a backlash in Pakistan/Saudi Arabia given today's bin Laden news.  Agreed? 

[RedKing]

So back to the point.  For Urist and anyone else confused on the whole "America created the Taliban" (although it was more accurately al-Qaeda that the CIA created), look up pretty much anything related to Congressman Charlie Wilson, who spearheaded the effort to supply American weaponry and training to the anti-Soviet insurgency, or any books or reporting by Ahmed Rashid or Saira Shah.

Meanwhile, the Pakistani government and the CIA are still at loggerheads over the drone-strikes, but the mass spy-recall notice is more or less off the table.

I am reasonably familiar with that story, but I'm not clear on what the US relationship is with Pakistan with regards to India, former Soviet bloc countries and China.  I'd heard somewhere that one motive for going into Afghanistan was to pacify India who were worried about Pakistani militarism.  Also, there are hypotheses floating around about ISI involvement in 9/11 (requested by US).  America gives billions in military aid to Pakistan, just like Israel, has created the ISI-hydra and Pakistani nationalist-militarism... but to what end I have not the foggiest.  I can speculate on oil pipeline route control, or the threat of insurgency in west China, but that's guessing.

Can anybody explain why Pakistan is so crucial to the US (and thus, by implication, why an American withdrawal from Pakistan could be bad)?

Well, though my question remains unanswered, we can probably safely surmise that the whole CIA/Pakistan incident was on some level a staged rift to negate a backlash in Pakistan/Saudi Arabia given today's bin Laden news.  Agreed? 

Or, that a devil's bargain was made: "Fine, you want us out? Cough up bin Laden. We know you know where he is."

I am somewhat worried that we've made a bargain to essentially abandon Afghanistan to Pakistani intereference in return for bin Laden. You don't drop two helicopters that deep inside Pakistan without complicity from the Pakistani government and military. Meanwhile, the Pakistanis know we want to get the hell out of Afghanistan, and would love to get their hands back into the pot. And given its lack of strategic value, we might have made the hard political calculus that it would be worth trading one dirt-poor Third World country for one guy.

[Aqizzar]

If anything, it's exactly the opposite.  That whole, "We know you know where he is," business is nowhere near so cinematic.  The Pakistani government and military is made of many different moving parts, many of them at odds with each other.  But any time before that the US tried to negotiate or suss out a location for bin Laden (or most any high-level guy), they'd inevitably find their mark long gone by the time they got there.  Even if the officials negotiated with really did want to give up the target, it's too many people in too loose an organization, and word of an impending strike would immediately leak out though the military associates of the Taliban/al-Qaeda (within Af-Pak, the distinction is meaningless).

This strike, which supposedly was more than eight months in the making, not even including the positive-intelligence track, worked precisely because the US military didn't say a damn thing to any part of the Pakistani government.  They went in unilaterally and unannounced, so that absolutely nobody would know it was coming.  Whatever negotiations took place with the government to settle the CIA-kicking business, this card was pointedly left in the hand.

My guess, the Pakistani intelligence service is fucking furious right now, not because of bin Laden really, they probably don't give two shits about him, but because of how it happened.  If you were the most influential element of a sovereign government, and some "allies" you never liked anyway suddenly kicked in the door and assassinated a notable guy, without telling you and making you look like chumps, you'd be pretty ticked off too.  Whatever the specifics of any organization or major players, it must be said that every American convoy that makes it through Pakistan unmolested is now doing so on borrowed time.  If Obama didn't have a good reason to draw this thing down hurry, he sure does now.

[Pwnzerfaust]

The funniest thing I've read about the Pakistani intelligence services today was that they tried to claim it was a joint operation that took down bin Laden.

[RedKing]

Aqizzar, I can't agree. This wasn't an over-the-border drop into Waziristan. This was a raid 100+ miles inside Pakistan, into a city that's a regional capital and is surrounded by hills. Even had they flown at NOE the whole damn way, there's no way they wouldn't have been spotted on the way in. Could have been a shorter trip if they came in from the Indian border, but also a much higher chance of getting blown to shreds the moment they flew over.

They *had* to have had some coordination with the Pakistani military, at the very least. And it wouldn't be that bizarre. From what I've been able to assess, the military is fairly clean and has some serious rivalry with the ISI. Might have been enough top brass who were willing to give up Osama and see the ISI with a black eye at the same time. They wouldn't have to divulge operational information, just make a few calls to air defense stations along the route to say, "You may see an unidentified pair of helicopters between X000 and Y000 hours. Do not attempt radio contact or intercept."

[Nadaka]

Someone did see, and he tweeted it.

http://idle.slashdot.org/story/11/05/02/1438254/Man-Unknowingly-Tweets-the-Osama-Raid

[Strife26]

Yeah, the Paki's are gonna be piiiiiisssssssssed. Mind you, still worth it. I really doubt that anyone in the Pakistan military/intel apparatus knew about it. Nighthawk's are pretty badass choppers, and what rational AAA type would fire on an unknown helicopter? I don't think that spec ops insertions are normal doctrine for India or any sort of anti-government force.

[RedKing]

Yeah, the Paki's are gonna be piiiiiisssssssssed. Mind you, still worth it. I really doubt that anyone in the Pakistan military/intel apparatus knew about it. Nighthawk's are pretty badass choppers, and what rational AAA type would fire on an unknown helicopter? I don't think that spec ops insertions are normal doctrine for India or any sort of anti-government force.

I would think SOP for air defense would be to fire on any unknown military craft that doesn't respond to IFF. Especially if it's a bird that the Pakistanis don't even have in their fleet. But then, I had read they were Chinooks?

[Nikov]

Four Knighthawks. Navy Blackhawks.

[KaelGotDwarves]

This is how I imagine it'll go down.

US: Hey Pakistan, that's great. You were so very helpful with finding Osama. How about we take all that aid and money we've been sending you and give it to India instead?
Pakistan: ...
US: yup.

Yeah, have fun dealing with the radicals on your own, dudes.

[Vector]

. . .

Can we not use the word "Paki" in this thread?  Thanks.  It's one of those slurs that kind of makes me stop in my tracks.

[Sowelu]

I can't say I had even the slightest idea that it was a slur.

[Leafsnail]

Well, now you do.

[nenjin]

I have to agree with Redking. The moment I heard where he was hit, the first thing I thought was "Well now we know where at least some of the Pakistani government stands." Providing intelligence....probably not. But tacit approval for a major raid with troops on the ground? Uh yeah. I'm pretty sure someone had to make a phone call for that one, at the very least.

[Strife26]

I apologize for my use of an offensive word. Heck if the Army isn't a bad influence on me for stuff like that.