I'm looking forwards to the next round of elections, actually. Newt Gingrich running for the Republican party, Sarah Palin running as an independent, and running for the Democrats.
I say I'm looking forwards to it because 1) There's no way that the Democrats won't win, and 2) They HAVE to replace Obama. Right? ...Right?
1. No.
2. No.
It's rare in the 20th century for the sitting President to be actively opposed in his re-election bid by his own party. Don't get me wrong, it's happened -- in 1980, Ted Kennedy ran an insurgent primary campaign against Jimmy Carter, which some credit with helping Carter to lose to Reagan in 1980. And I'm sure that parallel won't be lost on Republican pundits, who were comparing Obama to Carter before the man even took office. (They'll also like the analogy because it implies whoever they wind up running is the Second Coming of The Reagan.) Plus, I can't think of anyone in the Democratic Party who's made a name for themselves in the last few years to have the name recognition to make a challenge from within.
I don't see Palin running as an independent. For all her "maverickness", she needs the big bucks of the GOP to run a serious campaign. I think we'll wind up with another GOP primary free-for-all, which should be entertaining as they all try to outdo each other in who can wrap themselves in the flag tighter. I wouldn't be surprised to see Palin parachute into a rally with a giant flag parachute, firing an assault rifle that shoots tiny statues of Jesus riding a bald eagle.
And probably one or two candidates who are either too weak to win the primary or just too damn crazy for even the diseased stump that has become the GOP "base" will proclaim the party to still be "closet socialists" and try to peel off support from Tea Partiers and the assorted right-wing fringe. I think Michelle Bachmann is a good pick for that slot.
So in the end, 2012 is likely to be more or less a repeat of 2008 -- Obama vs. whichever crazy white conservative wins, who then has to gauge whether to race back to the center or run even harder to the Right, and generally makes a stumbling mess of things. And as usual, the Democrats will shoot themselves in the foot a number of times, to keep the race closer than it should be. The difference is that the grassroots enthusiasm that was there in 2008 (which had as much to do with the impending departure of Dubya as anything) will not be there.
I could well be wrong though -- I've just gotten so damn cynical about American politics that I honestly can't expect anything good anymore.