Argembarger, Ottofar: Please weigh in with your thoughts on Wuba vs. me, your reads on Leafsnail, Toaster and Person, and your top scumpicks.
Hrm.
Well. Statistics, right?
You can think I'm coming on way too strong, but there are people saying we shouldn't call people claiming Kook Town. Sure. That goes without saying. But the problem is that they don't want them to be considered more likely to be Town. I do. They are more likely to be Town. And it's due to simple statistics. I'll use the last three games as evidence:
There is a 100% chance of at least 1 Kook. This is surely more like 90%, but using empirical evidence, it's 100%.
33% of those games have had 2 Kooks. So, we'll assume that 66% chance of 1. 33% of 2. All on empirical evidence, of course.
1(2/3) + 2(1/3) = 4/3 as an expected value. That means in every game, there is likely to be 1.333 Kooks. They can only be Town. That means .5(2/3) + 1(1/3) = 66% chance to be Town at the lowest. As opposed to the 4 scum + 2 third parties in a group of 14 people. That means 8/14 = 57% chance to be Town on average. So, yes, they are more likely to be Town.
If you accept the empirical data there, as far as I'm concerned, Webadict's conclusion is valid. I don't like how small the sample size is, though.
Bastard Paranormal, there was a kook claimed, but IIRC, that kook never got confirmed or denied, right? The game just ended with "Humans win" and MBP's role in that game was never explicitly stated by Meph. So I suppose that one should get disregarded.
Para 17, 16, 15 were covered by Webadict.
Para 14, kook = 0.
Para 13, kook = 1.
Para 12, kook = 2.
Para 11, kook = 1.
Para 10 and earlier didn't have kooks as a thing.
Unless I screwed up, Para 14 proves that the possibility of 0 kooks is possible, but for the most part, with this expanded sample size, Webadict's estimate of 2/3 of games having 1 kook and 1/3 of games having two is correct.
The possibility of this game being like Para 14, and there are no kooks, and we have 2 fakeclaimers right now, is pretty much impossibly insane in my opinion, so I'm not gonna consider that. It is safe to say that we have 1 or 2 kooks in this game. Since kooks have to be town, Webadict is correct; people who claim kook are more likely to be town than scum.
From that premise, that what Webadict is saying is generally true,
Focusing on the Kooks is a nowhere road, as at least one of them is Town. You've got better odds of hitting scum by shooting randomly into the crowd of non-Kook-claimers.
Again your statistics are bunk. If at least one of them is town, and you have independent scummy reads on the other one, you have better chance of hitting scum by lynching the possible-fakeclaimer than randomly lynching one of the other dozen players.
NO YOU DON'T! YOU'RE MAKING THINGS UP! HOLY GOD!
Statistics really isn't your strong point, is it? Say you have a even-odds certainty of one of the two kooks fakeclaiming (because, as I said, you have independent scummy reads on him). If you lynch him, you have a 50% chance of hitting scum. If you lynch at random one of the other 13 players, you have a 30% or so chance. Your statistics are bunk.
But there's a 66% chance for the second kook claimant to be telling the truth. And there's roughly 57% chance for a randomlynch to come up town.
57% is better odds for a mislynch than 66%. And, of course, those odds are even better now that three townies have died. Chance of lynching scum is now something like 6/11, right? So now there's a less-than-50% chance to mislynch.
Webadict is right. It's better to
not attack kook claimants just for claiming kook.
Now, the question is, are you aware that Webadict is correct? He certainly thinks so.
There's always the chance that you're just making a mistake in misinterpreting Webadict's statistics. Webadict seems to be attacking you (statistics-wise) based on the idea that you're purposefully corrupting his theory and trying to attack him with it. I don't know which is true because I can't read your mind.
From my point of view, I'm not even going to consider the statistics debate in terms of deciding who is scummy here. I wrote everything up to here to state that I think Webadict's statistics are pretty much accurate. However, the statistics argument is, by and large,
besides the point. It's something to consider when going to vote a kook, i.e. maybe you should have reasons to vote that kook
other than their kookiness, but the statistics don't really have anything to do with you or Webadict's scumminess, do they?
Something I think is wierd is Webadict's hyper-srs-bsnss mode, claiming using humor as scumtells. This, I don't understand. I don't see it as evidence on it's own. Maybe, humor + lack of content can amplify the lack-of-content bit, but Webadict not-random-voting Janus for a joke and using you joking as evidence of your scumminess is rather contrived.
Also wierd, because I can certainly find examples of Webadict joking. Maybe not horribly explicit jokes, but stuff like
You've shown it by bringing up a whole list of points about Org's style and pushing Org to bother.
Ah, I'm sorry. That wasn't any of the things you did.
I think that's pretty funny. I think it was probably meant to be comical, perhaps in a threatening way, but comical nonetheless.
Point is, I don't think jokes on their own are scumtells.
Now for some actual real things that matter, at least to me.
Webadict is being extremely aggressive. This seems to me to be more townlike behavior from him in his meta, but it gets a little extreme. He appears to be shoving words into people's mouths, or assuming connotation that seems a little forced sometimes, and using it as evidence.
Exhibits:
I meant real tomorrow. I thought we'd already agreed to a 48 hour extension.
No, it was simply agreed that 48 hour extensions should be possible.
Having both 24 and 48 hour extensions is getting annoying to track, though. So maybe I'll just make all extensions 48 hours and save myself the headache. People can always Shorten if they think a day is dragging.
I prefer the 24 hour extensions, and get rid of the doubles. Maybe just have more than the current maximum two possible. If the extension is needed is because people are posting, if they are posting, they can request another one. Extension to lurk? Hell no.
I prefer agile games. If people extend 48 hours and then conversation dwindles 12-24 hours in, no one will request a shorten, as it would be seen as scummy, they will just let the game drag on for a useless day.
So, you're saying you want to request a shortening, but don't want to be seen as scummy?
I'd call that protecting your image, pal. Be scum less?
I enjoy arguing with Book right now. I feel like I can show he's scum as well. Since I'm alive today, I can do that. I might not be alive tomorrow.
Here's hoping.
And you're kicking up enough crap that, even if you are town, I'm guessing the scum will leave you just for that.
Are you saying Book is Town?
Aggressive web = town meta, unnervingly in-your-face web = still town meta? It kind of makes his case look more crazy than logical, though.
In short, I think he's town more than you are,
Book. All you've talked about is Web. All you've said to other people is Webadict-related. Ironically, you're tunnelling him harder than he is on you, and that's pretty scummy.
On
Leafsnail.
He's on the Bookwagon, but he seems to have good reasons for it.
However, yesterday, he kind of passively voted NativeForeigner for active-lurking and didn't really do anything about it. Didn't back up his vote, didn't question NF, just sort of sat back and let the day end. That's fairly scummy.
So, leans scum.
On
Toaster.
Had his vote on MBP for... uh, a reason. Kind of passively questioned MBP. Boarded the JanusWagon quickly, but seemed to have decent reasons for it. Kinda wierd behavior.
But he's been active with questioning and appears to give a care about scumhunting, so I think that overpowers the wierdness and puts him slight townish on my scale.
On
Mr. Person.
Lurking punctuated by walls of text. The content in the walls of text makes me think he's neutral.
Scumpicks.
Still keeping my vote on
Ottofar. For lurking and a general no-content don't-care attitude. Also, votes Dariush for lurking? For jumping on his "bandwagon" (back when it was just me and Pandar)?
Bullshit; that's an OMGUS, or as close as he can make from his phone.
Next,
Dariush. Passive, lurky. His vote on Ottofar is lazy. I wouldn't go so far as to call it a bandwagon like Ottofar does, but it's not very well supported. He hasn't been hunting, just throwing down votes and observations.
Finally, you,
Book. Your constant tunnelling of Webadict and hyper-defensive attitude is scummy.
Wow this took a long time to write.