There can't be a guaranteed kook. Otherwise that kook would be basically a confirmed townie.
Er. No. Because that's not who confirmed town works. They can't be confirmed 100%.
Book:
Book, you are, by far, the biggest moron ever. I lack words to describe how idiotic you are. In fact, I lack the vocabulary to describe how little words I have to describe your ineptitude.
Book: How is claiming kook in my first post scummy? What would be the non-scummy way to do it?
As I said, it's not just your claiming kook, but your amazing speed at doing so that strikes me as scummy. If you had done it an hour or two later it would have seemed less scummy. It just reeks to me as a preemptive fakeclaim. In isolation it's not much, but the rest of your posts also strike me as scummy, how you've managed to attack without engaging is compatible with what I know of your scum game, as is your silence over web's relentless defence of your towniehood (a townie would at least have said "hey, don't defend/buddy me"). Still, it's not enough for me to be certain you are scum, but it is enough for me to distrust your claim, leaving the fakeclaim a distinct possibility.
That is the dumbest thing I have ever heard in the world. Possibly on this side of the galaxy. An hour difference makes a post less scummy? No.
That perfectly fits into his story. He said he looked at his PM and saw that he was a Kook and claimed it. You're saying if he logged in later, he'd suddenly be less suspicious. I know for a fact that that has to be false. You cannot argue such a brainless statement.
You still would've thrown your hissy fit over him claiming Kook. Especially since him claiming an hour or two later would have made absolutely no difference. You're such a filthy liar that you can't even be bothered to try to make sense.
You might as well attack Ottofar as well, coward. But, you're really too much of a pansy to do that. It took someone pushing you to actually find a target. Of course, it's completely OMGUS. All of it. You have no suspicion of me until I start beating on you with the obvious stick. Then you decide to take bits of my argument and try to turn it around.
Focusing on the Kooks is a nowhere road, as at least one of them is Town. You've got better odds of hitting scum by shooting randomly into the crowd of non-Kook-claimers.
Why is one of them town?
I personally believe both are Town. [...] Toaster, I'm going to say this pretty clearly: you didn't do anything wrong. You're doing it right.
Why do you believe Toaster is town? Just because he claimed kook? That's not just "a slight town tell", then, but an absolute proof of towniness! I couldn't make a better argument for fakeclaiming if I tried.
No. I believe he is Town because of your sick fantasy where everyone who does anything pro-Town is suspicious. You tried to bring people onto Toaster, and when that failed (like when I shoved your moldy feces of an argument down your throat), you decide that you'll attack the person that attacks you.
All that really says about your character is how much self-preservation you have.
I think spiting you is an acceptable reason to believe both Ottofar and Toaster are town. If you really thought they were fake-claiming, you would have made the effort to find or make a case against one of them. You didn't. You instead tried to garner support and get people to do your dirty work for you.
Unfortunately, I'm not okay with underhandedness. You've got some serious problems if you think it's okay to make bogus arguments until someone does something. You think your reasoning, as full of crap as you can find, is gold, but in reality, where I reside, I see that you didn't make any effort to do anything.
I managed to waste four hours writing one reply. I actually put forth some effort because I have some actual wanting for the Town to succeed. You, on the other hand, wish to hide among your terrible reasoning and horrendous arguments.
Your argument fails by virtue of I'm really doing this because of how much you say it won't happen. Because I think you're scum. And I feel like you'd push this statement as hard as you could to make anybody claiming Kook have as much WIFOM as possible, because you're scum. Your argument fails because you're scum. It doesn't get any simpler than that.
But I think there's something else going on here. It's not just that you're defending your pet theory regarding kook claims, you are specifically and vigorously defending Toaster. That's very scummy. Experience has shown me that scum will do things like this, even if the target of the defence is indeed town (See Jim's defence of Janus in Supernatural 3, for example). You have been climbing on my scum list since your previous wall of text, and I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion that you are indeed scum.
Nope. I'm defending against the spread of misinformation from you. Your here not to make us wary. Your entire point shifts from nulltell to scumtell on the drop of whatever you feel like today. Seriously, you're jumping back and forth between making things up faster than a Mexican jumping bean in a mega-bouncer.
And yeah. I seriously, and amazingly, think you're the worst liar/player in the world. It's scummy to do anything in your world, except backtrack, lie, and provide no evidence at all. Those last ones are virtues in your world.
I'm glad you admit to the OMGUS. That saves me the 2 minutes of work I'd have to do to quote you. Admit that you're after me now for calling you scum, and maybe you'll have whatever's left of your dignity when this is done.
And, I literally laughed out loud when you said scum list. It looks like this:
Toaster - Not working
webadictAnd I'm hastily written on after I called your horrible arguments horrible.
like painting town to be the bad guy for doing something else. Like what [Toaster is] doing here. [about MBP]
So, Toaster is painting town to be the bad guy? What makes you think MBP is town? Do you know something we don't? Or is it that you want us to believe "wait and see" is something only town does? Mighty suspicious of you, Jokerman.
The irony is that you yourself are voting for Toaster at this point. And yet you're defending him? Either you don't believe Toaster is acting scummy enough to agree with him, or you believe Toaster isn't doing that, but either way, that's Toaster's concern. Not yours. Why are you protecting the player you're voting for?!? Why are you attempting to calm down a player you yourself stirred up?!?
A vote at that stage doesn't mean I am sure the person is scum, we're stirring discussion, and things may go either way. I wasn't defending Toaster, I was dissecting Jokerman's objection. And if I wanted to calm him down I wouldn't have FoS'd him to begin with. Instead of dragging it out, I asked the direct question, which he answered. This doesn't clear him, the slip and his correction stand for people to read as evidence as they wish, but I didn't see a point in dragging it out further.
Right. You're sure that this person is a Kook. That makes it okay to NOT ATTACK ANYONE EVER, right? Or, to be more precise, to attack them once and take it back, defending whatever crap excuse you can come up with.
That makes no sense whatsoever. I am not sure the person is a kook, I never said "not attacking anyone ever" is okay, I attacked who I chose, didn't take it back, and made no excuses. You are utterly distorting reality to fit your preconceptions. That is scummy.
No. You know that the people claiming are Kooks. You're scum. You would know. But, you did make no effort to attack anyone except by FoSing Jokerman, which you then took back in a couple of posts. Mostly because you're afraid to make anyone angry.
But, if you do make someone angry enough, you seem to default to OMGUS mode, where you start attacking anybody that dares to question how bad you're playing. Maybe if you learned to play a little bit, you'd be better at it. I doubt you ever thought of that one though, so it's your idea for free.
And you did take back your attack on Jokerman. I can quote it and show you at various points where you took it back.
In fact, this is a good use of my time. Humiliating you.
Someone always jumps out; someone like you, Toaster. For one thing, I'm a big proponent of the "wait and see" approach, and your attack on it is the same level of bullshit that it's been every time you've used it on me: it works for me, I know what I'm doing, and it's never been a tool I've used as scum because, guess what, scum has better things to do.
False. You do use that tactic as scum too, like, say, in a wuba game of recent memory. While it's true that you "wait and see" when town, you also do it as scum; your lying about it now sounds to me like you want to make sure people see your "town meta" so they don't entertain the notion of you being scum.
You, unfortunately, shoot yourself in the foot when you "wait and see" while dropping scumtells like this:
like painting town to be the bad guy for doing something else. Like what [Toaster is] doing here. [about MBP]
So, Toaster is painting town to be the bad guy? What makes you think MBP is town? Do you know something we don't? Or is it that you want us to believe "wait and see" is something only town does? Mighty suspicious of you, Jokerman.
Here, you're voting Toaster for being Kook. (Just admit it. You say it's a nulltell, yet lie horribly through your teeth.) You decide to vote Jokerman because he's attacking Toaster for attacking MBP for using the "wait and see" method. You completely miss the point Jokerman is making, and he blindsides you for it:
You, sir, are full of shit.
You're looking for a reason to make me out to be scum. And as a matter of fact, that game you mention? The first one in which I didn't wait and see; as a matter of fact, it was my talking that got me killed, in the end. Or maybe you should go look again.
No, I didn't call MBP town, and someone like you who enjoys picking apart peoples' words would be well aware of that. I pointed out that scum can - and does - paint town to be scum. In fact, you accusation only holds water if you read it with the part that you put in yourself. As I said it, it was a hypothetical example concerning what Toaster was saying - but thank you for blatantly putting words in my mouth.
We do, however, agree on the Kook-claim scenario. It's not a tell, and each person will read into it how they will. Trying to force one or the other is not the optimal way to play.
Jokerman reprimands you for taking things out of context, and misunderstanding things.
You, sir, are full of shit.
You, ma'am, are even fuller. ;-P
That game you mention? The first one in which I didn't wait and see; as a matter of fact, it was my talking that got me killed, in the end. Or maybe you should go look again.
As I recall you only delurked under extreme pressure, and fully intended to "wait and see" throughout RVS had I not called you out. But let's not rehash arguments from a past game; most players here were there too, and can remember on their own. My only point was not to mistake your "wait and see" attitude for a "town meta" thing, because it isn't. At most it's standard Jokerman personality and says nothing of your alignment.
but thank you for blatantly putting words in my mouth.
I didn't. I merely simplified to give context in a short quote. But never mind, people will read it as they will. I'll instead ask you the direct questions: do you think MBP is town? do you think only town uses the "wait and see" approach?
We do, however, agree on the Kook-claim scenario. It's not a tell, and each person will read into it how they will. Trying to force one or the other is not the optimal way to play.
Agreed. It is, however, interesting, and a worthy topic to start discussion rolling. What's your read on Ottofar so far? What do you make of Wuba's insistence to drop the topic, or the reasons for his vote on Janus?
You turn the situation and head for calmer waters. You no longer make the same argument. It's not there anymore. You stop pushing Jokerman. You didn't bother with a follow up. You just stop mentioning your argument because you no longer wish to play without kid gloves. Because you're a pansy.
But the problem is that they don't want them to be considered more likely to be Town. I do. They are more likely to be Town. [...] It is a slight town tell, if only because the statistics prove it is. [...] And it's due to simple statistics. I'll use the last three games as evidence:
Two points:
a) your calling them town is precisely why it's a viable tactic. Nothing better for a scum than to be called "likely town" by the likes of you.
b) your statistics are bunk. There's nowhere enough data points for your results to be statistically significant, and you know it; the weights in Meph's script are unknown to us, could in principle result in a game with zero or four kooks, and the "evidence" you cite is Gambler's Fallacy at its finest.
Right. I'm actually saying it's more likely to be true BECAUSE you say it isn't. Even if there aren't enough points for my result, there's not enough AGAINST it either. You seem to forget that conveniently. And no. There has always been at least one Kook. there will always be at least one Kook. Do not attempt to WIFOM the Town again with your horsecrap. You stupid moron.
Bullshit. That's not how statistics, or debating, works. You make an assertion, you have to prove it is correct. Saying "there aren't enough points for my result, there's not enough against it either" is fallacious reasoning. There aren't enough points against any number of other scenarios either, but I don't assert they are true (as you did). You are admitting making shit up, you assert undecidables as truth (also known as "lying"), and asserting knowledge you don't have as truth. You lovable troll.
I'm going to quote a section for you:
You make an assertion, you have to prove it is correct.
You never prove your assertion correct. You merely say mine is not correct, which is, in itself, an assertion. There is no evidence in your statement. You do not prove your assertion. Ever.
I gave exactly as many data points were available in a concise manner. I showed what was likely and what wasn't. You didn't provide any evidence that your assertion was correct (and you did assert).
But the last point is easily decided:
Mephansteras: is the presence of at least one Kook guaranteed in Paranormal games?
Of course he's not going to say yes, because that would be against rules. But, there is at least one Kook. He will, of course, change the program for next round to make this no longer possible, as that is how I abuse the system. I find the loopholes, exploit them, and then let him fix it for next time.
At most what you can say is that there's likely to be "one or more" kooks, leaving the door wide open for either a second one, a scum fakeclaim, or a townie kook who hasn't claimed by now, and won't since if he's the third to claim he'll be lynched for sure (which is why a scum fakeclaim needs to get in fast).
Right. So, maybe instead of sitting there trying to turn it into a scumtell, DO SOME ACTUAL SCUMHUNTING. Jesus Christ.
So, I'm right, yes? So it does leave the door open of a scum fakeclaim, a townie kook who hasn't claimed, a second (or third) kook, and so on? So what was all the above bullshit about? As to hunting, I think I am, and I'll do as I please at my own pace. Bugger off.
Everything is possible, but the fact that you're scum pretty much debunks all your claims by trying to turn a Kook claim that benefits the town into a scumtell and using that to defend your vote while waiting for someone else to make an argument for you so that you can head the bandwagon. And when they get lynched, you'll probably play the blame game on Ottofar because he HAS TO BE THE SCUMS!
You were not hunting before this, and that cannot be changed. Your "pace" is about two arguments a year. Both of which you haven't gotten to yet.
Also, please let me laugh heartily at your defense of, "I think I am."
Focusing on the Kooks is a nowhere road, as at least one of them is Town. You've got better odds of hitting scum by shooting randomly into the crowd of non-Kook-claimers.
Again your statistics are bunk. If at least one of them is town, and you have independent scummy reads on the other one, you have better chance of hitting scum by lynching the possible-fakeclaimer than randomly lynching one of the other dozen players.
NO YOU DON'T! YOU'RE MAKING THINGS UP! HOLY GOD!
Statistics really isn't your strong point, is it? Say you have a even-odds certainty of one of the two kooks fakeclaiming (because, as I said, you have independent scummy reads on him). If you lynch him, you have a 50% chance of hitting scum. If you lynch at random one of the other 13 players, you have a 30% or so chance. Your statistics are bunk.
But, it's not even-odds. That's your failure at statistics. Your making assertions again with no reason to, and you're doing it wrong.
Empirically, there's a 100% chance that at least one of them is Town. There's also a 33% chance both of them are town.
Do... do you know how to add? Multiply?
Watch as I show you that it's exactly as I said it was.
1 (2/3) + 2 (1/3) = 4/3
That first 1 is the exact number town Kooks there are in a game, multiplied by the chance that there is exactly 1. This is added to the chance that 2 show up. The total is the expected amount of town Kooks in a game.
Do you see how that works?
Your argument that there aren't enough data points would be okay, but my counterpoint is that it's more accurate than your assertion.
In short, your arguments are crap, your defence of Toaster is utterly scummy, and your lies are painful. You are scum. Unvote Toaster, vote Webadict. But I still think Toaster is scummy. My next picks, for those keeping track, are Mr.Person, and Org.
OMGUS. WIFOM. Backtracking. Lies. No logical reasoning. No scumhunting.
At least you're not being passive, right?
Oh, I'm sorry. Janus showed up. I'ma get back to ya when you answer, but Janus is pretty scummy too.
blah blah blah some more
Doesn't seem to be much point in responding to you any more, you're just ignoring me anyway.
I'm ignoring you? Where? And that is blatant hypocritical reasoning right in the opening.
However, unvote NF because Ottofar is looking worse right now. And Janus, avoiding the OMGUS is worse than doing it, frankly. You should make up your mind whether you think Wuba's scum.
Avoiding an OMGUS? As I explained, I'm not sure what to think about webadict and am reserving judgement until a later day. Why would I vote for him as either town or scum?
... What? That argument makes no sense at all.
That's just a statement of WIFOM that leads nowhere.
The only thing that is guaranteed is that there will be town and doppelgangers.
Told you he'd say this. Of course, that just a formality. I, however, know the truth.
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Topic: Paranormal Mafia Round 18 - Game Over (Read 126137 times)