So, it seems like a lot of independent villages and such respond to different players differently. Is that the case or just a few examples of different enough circumstances? If it is, is there anything in particular that affects/determines who's friendly/not so friendly/distrustful of who?
Ahra, I was glancing at your turn and noticed a couple issues. The only actual problem is that you haven't got any bronze, so you can't make more heavy metal armor without smelting it first. But, I was wondering about some things.
First, why are all your guys level 1? They haven't been doing anything except standing guard, you probably should have trained them when there was nothing better for them to be doing.
Second, shouldn't you build a military school so you can raise two units at once? You're drowning in wood, leather, and money, so with a military school you could raise a pair of fire caste in crappy gear every turn and overwhelm the orcs with sheer numbers.
I mean, I was going to suggest you use owlbears because they're 7A/4D/7H for only 2 labor, 3 food, and 1 money (which you're drowning in), when I realized your crappy regular guys are 7A/4D/14H for 2 labor, 1 wood (which you're drowning in) and 1 leather (which you're also drowning in). At that rate, you don't even need to equip them with shields or train them to L2; you can just swarm the orcs with pointy sticks. Some bronze-clad units would be nice for support, sure, but at 2 labor and nothing else your guys are horrifyingly strong for their cost.
Third, you shouldn't let your population stagnate. I realize right this moment you're worried about food and can't build more colonies because the orcs might get them, but you've got some food to spare and getting more colonies is pretty vital. Even if you haven't got the troops to defend it yet, you should at least train the settlers so your population can keep growing.
EDIT: Actually, I just realized something else. Those things on your hills are regular improved farms, not both pastures and farms or something. You've got some of your guys trying to build an improved farm where there already is one.
Also, you've got a jeweler's workshop. That turns one unit of appropriate materials into jewelry per turn for free; you don't need to spend labor doing it unless you want to store some extra.