I'll include a map later today... Time to think things through again.
China: so far, semi-success.
+I have been able to mount incredible losses to the enemy, push the Chinese back, and capture several industry and resource centers as well as some oil.
+The Japanese still have the initiative
-I have failed to open the Southern front properly, and this is where the main focus will be from now on. I will try to open the road from Shanghai to Vietnam(via Hong Kong), and push the Chinese back, hurting them and mounting casualties where ever possible.
-I dont think winning China completely is possible without reinforcements. About a divisions' worth of units are still to move from Manchuria, but they will be used to start the offensive in the south... All the reinforcements from Home Islands are needed elsewhere.
Will do: open new front in the South, continue in the North, reinforce Sinyang siegers and take the place ASAP to free the units. Keep the Chinese fighting in the plains to be able to capitalize the tank, artillery and air superiority. In foreseeable future the only Chinese cities we can capture, is worth of it, and is not in the South, are Lanchow far in the North and Anking close to Sian.
Burma: What a farce!
+Allies have been pushed back a little, they have taken losses, especially in ships(BB
Ramillies, 2 heavy cruisers, a light cruiser, lots of transports, hordes of aircraft).
-Initiative is now pretty much lost. I dont see a breakthrough towards Rangoon, using the available forces, anywhere in the future. Chiang Mai was secured by an Indian division in late December, so the current front line cannot be flanked, sooner than 2 months any way. Even if I choose to try that, it will take months and troops we dont have.
-As it is, the China Road is still open, and the Chinnicks get 500 supply points a day + anything the Allies bother to transfer.
Will do: there is pretty much no choice but to stop the offensive if there is no breakthrough in the next 2-3 weeks, and start digging foxholes and build up defensive positions. If there is good in the situation it is that should the Allies go to offensive, once they do, they have to attack in jungle, far from their supplies, under Japanese air superiority and against massive defenses. They also have just 2 chokepoints to attack through In the plains of central Burma this would not be possible.
In order to buy time for later stages of the war it would be better to get Rangoon and delay the Allies in Burma but for now we're pretty much out of options! The only good thing is now theres less time and supply burnt, and at least the whatever defenses that will be built will be massive. Lots of air fields will also be built in the area.
I am still considering shipping in an Airborne regiment and dropping it to block the China Road... Might work for some time.
Dutch East Indies: I think going OK.
+Major oil centers already ours, all of them in practice intact. Shipping started already. Progress has been swift in Sumatra especially, and Java seems to be a piece of cake. Once Java is secured there wont be many places left that need a naval invasion, the rest can be secured by paratroops later on. Timor is next in the line, after that, its about shipping the engineers and aviation support in, and start building up for 1943, 44 and 45!
+Enemy naval and air forces have been truly devastated. I dont think theres much left of the KNIL and the few USAAF and Commonwealth units nearby have taken heavy losses. Allied naval losses include some excellent war ships as well as tankers and important support ships.
Will do: carry on. Timor invaded before end of April, airborne paratrooper units moved from Philippines to do the "mopping up". Ambon needs an invasion of its own, but theres no hurry with that.
Central Pacific: semi-FUBAR'd
+With the Decisive Battle won, there wont be a counter invasion!
-Failed to take Wake Island.
-Failed to take Midway.
-Heavy losses to troops, including the whole of a base force regiment.
Will do: build up. Pilots can carry on playing cards, the troops will keep digging until the Allies come in a year or 2.
South Pacific: Could be better!
+Rabaul and surroundings secured easy.
-Solomons still mainly in Allied hands, no aviation support other than Rabaul in the North! These will be taken.
-Port Moresby still in Allied hands and 100% sure extremely heavily fortified.
Will do: next major operation uses the same fleet that is now uses/used against Java. They will be supported by Carrier Divisions I and III, that will provide air cover together with Rabaul's Zeroes. It might be bit of an overkill to use the whole 14th Army against Port Moresby but I think its worth of it. In next 7 days Tanaka Squadron will cover invasions of New Georgia and Guadalcanal. These invasions have no aviation support either, which might turn out to be a mistake, but I couldnt get any available this quick and didnt want to move out any from Marshalls or Guam.
Navy: going great!
Current losses heavily favor the Japanese. 1 or 2 pages back I have the current losses tracked in more detail but heres some:
Losses:
Side: Japan / Allies, certain+probables+possibles
CV: 0 / 2+1+1
BB: 1 / 2+2+3
CA: 1 / 6+3+1
CL: 2 / 8+1+2So currently Carriers are
Side: Japan / Allies, certainly have + probably
CV: 7 / 2+1
CVL: 3 / 1
CVE: 2 / 1-2?During next 2 months Japan will receive 1 CVE (
Unyu) and 1 CV (
Hiyo). Allies should receive the CV
Wasp from the Mediterranean and at least 1 CVE. The Allies cant get even close to 1:1 in carrier aircraft numbers before Fall of 43, if Japan doesnt lose any of its own. Even then good part of the Allied carrier planes will operate from CVEs, small, vulnerable and slow carriers...
Industry: not yet crashed!
I changed my mind and cancelled the
Shinano again. However 3 first Unruy class carriers are now accelerated, they are not yet laid so the acceleration is not very fast(nor resource consuming, though), together with CV
Taiho.
BB
Yamato is available in 40 days!
With all the resources, oil and especially fuel now being brought from recently conquered areas to feed to the Home Islands' industry everything looks fine. I'm careful with the industry, I dont want it to crash yet... Theres lots of heavy industry surplus now and I'm not planning to expand the war industry much soon. Aviation industry will get expanded during the next couple of months a little but I wouldnt want to produce huge numbers of planes yet, before they are really needed.
Aviation industry as it is:
Navy:
A6M2(Zero): 105/month
A5M2-N(Zero on floats): 15
D3A1(Aichi dive bomber): 30
B5N2(Nakajima torpedo bomber): 32
G4M1(long range torpedo bomber): 35
E13A(naval search float plane): 27
H6K4(flying boat, search and ASW): 24
H6K2-L(transport version): 7
E14Y(submarine carried float plane): 11
Army:
Ki-43-Ic(Hayabusa): 120
Ki-21-IIa(standard Army bomber): 40
Ki-46-II(Army photo reconnaissance): 22
Ki-56(transport): 10
Ki-57-II(transport): 11
Next version of the Zero(the short ranged, non-carrier capable), M3, arrives in 2 months, the bigger Zero plant will convert to it and go for 80/month. The super-long ranged G3M3 arrives in 2 months(22/month factory reserved), and G4M1 production will probably be stopped, until more are again needed, once there are enough of the new bombers to equip the first Group. Heavy fighter Ki-45 Toryu will arrive shortly as well, I'm intending to build them approximately 30/month and use it mainly where ever the Allied heavy bombers show up(probably Burma).
After that, next good new planes come available in 3 or 4 months, the Ki-44 Shoki fighter(most Army fighter production will move to it, will be built in thousands...) and Ki-49-IIa bomber that, as it does everything better than the Ki-21, be the main bomber for pretty much the rest of the war.
Summa summarum I'd say it looks good. Could be better in many ways but the slaughter of Allied carrier force leaves a lot of breathing room so that failures at especially Burma dont look that bad after all.
BTW, what my opponent thinks of the Sumatra campaign where 80 Japanese bombers visit the front daily:
1. Sanag (tip of Sumatra): You bombing campaign has been fantastic. I have but one squad available. All other squads are disrupted/dead. You'll take that place on one attack and I predict my value to be 1 AV. So yeah, Jap bombers can do the job (clear terrain helped, of course).
And yeah yesterday a single battalion(800 men, Marines but still) defeated what was estimated 5,500 defenders, and captured Sanag without a single casualty.
Author
Topic: War in the Pacific: AE PBEM - July 1st 1942 (Read 93656 times)