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[Duuvian]

Immunity for Assad? That won't fly with large parts of the population. What I keep hoping for is a palace revolution - Assad and his government are removed by the second row, and the (now semi-clean) Syrian state forges an alliance with moderate rebels to crush the Islamists.
Basically I'm hoping Assad is sacrificed like a pawn in chess - he himself isn't that important, after all.

I would rather he was arrested instead, gilded cage or not, but otherwise I agree that it would likely be better than the current situation.

On a side note, I saw something on a new site about a possible Iran backed peace resolution. Highlights:

- Assad admitting that he has done things wrong (Note: does not include gas attack. Merely barrel bombing)
- Diplomatic Immunity for Assad and his government, as well as key military figures
- Constitution reform by a joint council formed by the current government and moderate rebels. Exiles don't get to participate, and neither does ISIS.
- Installation of a joint interim government by moderate rebels and current government. Assad might not be part of this.

I believe the bolded will be the sticking point for the rebels, but I would rather this outcome than continued war. I would strongly urge the rebels to consider it; if sparing one restrained murderer saves a hundred thousand lives it should be done in my opinion.

Italics would be the sticking point for the Assad regime, which has been seemingly focused on keeping Assad in power at all costs to the Syrian people. If he agrees to this I would be surprised, but if he disagrees he would be the wrench in the Iranian's plan for peace. If I could advise him it would be that he should have left long ago, but if he can stop the fighting now by leaving the government and going into hiding it would be better than continued slaughter that may one day catch up to him and his beloveds.

What was the first success of the Arab spring? I can't remember any.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tunisia

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemen

[LordSlowpoke]

What was the first success of the Arab spring? I can't remember any.

tunisia? but then tunisia wasn't that autocratic to begin with

[10ebbor10]

Right. Almost forgotten. Well, Tunisia seems to be doing alright for the moment, so that's a thing.


On a side note, according to the supreme Constitutional court (ie, based on the turn-out of the elections, which were only held in Assad controlled areas), 75% of Syria's population lives under Assad rule.
For now, they seem to be quite content with his rule.

I believe that the people will agree to anything if it means the end of the war.

[Duuvian]

Right. Almost forgotten. Well, Tunisia seems to be doing alright for the moment, so that's a thing.


On a side note, according to the supreme Constitutional court (ie, based on the turn-out of the elections, which were only held in Assad controlled areas), 75% of Syria's population lives under Assad rule.
For now, they seem to be quite content with his rule.

I believe that the people will agree to anything if it means the end of the war.

I think you are right in the last sentence. Remember though that if they control the area they have an ability to canvass in those areas against their opposition. Not to mention, you know, armed guards.

[Helgoland]

Hey, Libya's not been decided yet - we don't know what kind of government will establish itself there. Egypt seems to be sliding into a military dicctatorship again, but the revolution could be seen as a proof of concept (how many revolutions did France need?); and it might be argued that the Gezi Park protests were at least partially inspired by the Arab Spring.

[Duuvian]

Hey, Libya's not been decided yet - we don't know what kind of government will establish itself there. Egypt seems to be sliding into a military dictatorship again, but the revolution could be seen as a proof of concept (how many revolutions did France need?); and it might be argued that the Gezi Park protests were at least partially inspired by the Arab Spring.

I also agree with this. I was hesitant to list them as successful as of yet as it is apparent it still may be ongoing in those countries. I would lean towards in the long run them being labelled a success, or at least a first step. There are many ways my optimism could be fouled however.

[LordSlowpoke]

i consider libya to be decided as a failure what with qadaffi being dead for almost three years and the state still chillin' at somalia levels of cohesiveness

i mean seriously

gezi park wasn't all that successful either because if anything erdogan grew in strength having all the little protestors smashed with rocks and pepper spray (and providing his c+ voter base with proof that he's needed to keep these pesky libruls at bay)

[Duuvian]

Having read that link, I'd say it's too early to tell about Haftar whether or not he is aiming for a military dominated government. It sounds like he has the support of a large percentage of the populace and government who would like to see a return to normalcy and the militias disbanded and is opposed mainly by militias seeking Sharia based government or at least a government that supports non-secular causes.

I checked out http://www.libyaherald.com/

and one of the headlines suggest the Russian government supports the part of the government opposed to Haftar, which worries me considering the large amount of support he seems to have amongst Libyans. Unfortunately I am unable to read the story or others on the site, possibly due to IP filtering or some such. It makes me wonder why news sites do it when it's in their interest to have people worldwide able to read their stories but sites that should be segregated by region like dating sites often can't be bothered to segment their websites to be able to IP block out-of-state or otherwise foreign spammers and scammers making fake accounts for profit or just the lulz factor. My buddy trolls a few dating sites like that and when I told him websites could probably do something along those lines he basically said 'Why don't they then?'

[Helgoland]

i consider libya to be decided as a failure what with qadaffi being dead for almost three years and the state still chillin' at somalia levels of cohesiveness

Dude, look at the French revolution: It started in 1789, and four years later they got la terreur. Then came Napoleon, then came a big-ass war... It took them 25 years to get back to normal conditions!

[LordSlowpoke]

helga

that was three centuries ago

it's like comparing the american invasion of iraq to the deluge or the kalmar union to the creation of the kingdom of italy

and i'll be damned if libya starts invading other countries in the name of whatever idea comes on top inside the country itself

[Helgoland]

Just sayin' that you can't judge a revolution by the state the country's in after three or four years.
Plus most Libyans seem to be kinda pissed at the militias, so there's hope they'll get rid of them after all.

[Sheb]

Yeah, nation-building is hard, and takes time.

[Owlbread]

It took at least 200 years of civil wars, rebellions, open wars, bribery and genocide and unrest to make Britain and make it stable.

[smjjames]

We got it down pretty quick in the US, but even we had initial problems and it took a little while for it to stabilize. Though I guess you could stretch it from a couple decades to almost a century to the civil war before it truly stabilized.

Even so, it's a continuously evolving proccess, and our politics are rather divided, enough to get us to the brink, but still......

[Ukrainian Ranger]

In 21th century all processes are faster. Now it should be decades instead of centuries. Still sucks for the generation that lives in such turbulent times