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[10ebbor10]

Always a cynic, are we...

[MetalSlimeHunt]

It's not cynicism, it is what is obviously going on. He's meant to be an outlet for the people's anger without actually changing anything meaningfully. The President is a puppet of the theocracy. That's why the theocracy gets to decide who can run, so they will always get somebody who will more or less play ball.

[misko27]

Oh by the by, Human Rights international came to the same conclusion as the New York Times, coming to it independently and about a couple of hours before.Here's the conclusions reached by HRW. The logic came from the azimuth of the Rockets, which apparently means "arc and direction".

Anyway Russia denounces the report as biased and incomplete, notable as the report itself does not name names, although certain forensic info is incriminating. Negotiations on Syria in the Security Council continue, as Britain, France and the US push to have wording recommending the use of Force if Syria does not comply, which Russia balks at, and China continues to sit idly on the sidelines periodically praising progress when it occurs. Congress has delayed action indefinitely.

[alway]

He's just a weak appeaser the theocrats let into the Presidency because they realized the impending threat of revolution. After this term it'll be back to radical Islamists until the Iranians finally get the will to rise up and destroy the theocracy.

All that is irrelevant, even if it is true. Saudi Arabia is similarly authoritarian, but last I checked, the US and Israel weren't drawing red lines or threatening to invade.

It all comes down to a question of what they see as the best means to secure the future of Iran. Their nuclear ambitions may well evaporate because of this. Between military threat and, probably more importantly, the sanctions which have destabilized their economy, they have ample reason to give them up. They don't want to be a North Korea, with a nonexistent economy and where the most well-off live almost as well as the lower-middle class of the modern world. Those in power want to stay in power, and those who are well off want to stay well off, or even become more well off. These are people with families; just like any other, they want their children and descendants to prosper as well. If it comes down to it, they will give up their nuclear program if they see doing so is more likely to secure future success than not.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

He's just a weak appeaser the theocrats let into the Presidency because they realized the impending threat of revolution. After this term it'll be back to radical Islamists until the Iranians finally get the will to rise up and destroy the theocracy.

All that is irrelevant, even if it is true. Saudi Arabia is similarly authoritarian, but last I checked, the US and Israel weren't drawing red lines or threatening to invade.

It is most certainly not irrelevant. This has fucking nothing to do with the Syrian Civil War, it is the simple recognition of Iran's internal political strategy.

[10ebbor10]

The election of a progressive candidate under threat of a revolution is still better than a revolution itself would be. Iran's strain of Islam isn't really loved, they got some enemies in the Middle East, and the geopolitical situation doesn't allow a quick turnover like happened in Lybia. A revolution would be a bloody, long affair, probably involving a minor genocide, and result in the installation of US, Russian or Chinese pawn, rather than a democracy.

Also strange that you seem so intent on attacking Iran at every opportunity, but leave Saudi Arabia, or any of the other Muslim states alone. Those nations are equally authoritarian (if not worse), but of course, as US allies they're absolved off all criticism.

He's just a weak appeaser the theocrats let into the Presidency because they realized the impending threat of revolution. After this term it'll be back to radical Islamists until the Iranians finally get the will to rise up and destroy the theocracy.

All that is irrelevant, even if it is true. Saudi Arabia is similarly authoritarian, but last I checked, the US and Israel weren't drawing red lines or threatening to invade.

It is most certainly not irrelevant. This has fucking nothing to do with the Syrian Civil War, it is the simple recognition of Iran's internal political strategy.

He's not talking about the Syrian red lines. Iran has got plenty of them too.

[ChairmanPoo]

It's not cynicism, it is what is obviously going on. He's meant to be an outlet for the people's anger without actually changing anything meaningfully.

It's surprising the number of heads of goverment to which this comment could be applied nowadays /musings

[MetalSlimeHunt]

The election of a progressive candidate under threat of a revolution is still better than a revolution itself would be.

He's not a progressive. He's just a guy who sometimes does not fully support monstrous religious law.

Iran's strain of Islam isn't really loved, they got some enemies in the Middle East, and the geopolitical situation doesn't allow a quick turnover like happened in Lybia. A revolution would be a bloody, long affair, probably involving a minor genocide, and result in the installation of US, Russian or Chinese pawn, rather than a democracy.

Probably, but not necessarily. It could be relatively bloodless if the Guardian Council was taken down early. You could retain a lot of the political system once you've destroyed the theocratic system that controls it. In any case, as I said, it's the only way for there to be real change in Iran. That's just the way it is.

Also strange that you seem so intent on attacking Iran at every opportunity, but leave Saudi Arabia, or any of the other Muslim states alone. Those nations are equally authoritarian (if not worse), but of course, as US allies they're absolved off all criticism.

Spoiler: Excuse me? (click to show/hide)

Iran has been having them, to an extent, ever since the last election. Just not ones massive enough to take down the government peacefully. Saudi Arabia is just...a bad place in general, so it probably can't really be counted here. At this point, I'm going to dare to hope that this revolution turns Egypt into a real, secular democracy.

A bit of overgeneralization here. Not every fundamentalist is the Taliban.

Not every, but many. Enough that it is a legitimate possibility, and that's not even counting the less extreme but still extremely bad possibilities.

Also conveniently ignores the hypocrisy of invading other nations to prevent them from Islam, and protecting Saudi Arabia as a Tier one US ally. The nation were women still aren't allowed to drive, where you need to be a muslim to enter*, and which fully supported the Taliban regime in Afghanistan.

*Foreign experts doing construction and other useful things excepted.

You are free to show me where I supported maintaining our positive ties with Saudi Arabia. I don't. It would also do a lot of good towards getting off of oil.

Saudi Arabia's royal family being so unfathomably rich is at least partially to blame for the explosion of radical politicized Islam in the past few decades. The government lets the clergy spread whatever message they want, so long as they support (or at least do not denounce) the monarchy. This lets the government and the clergy co-exist relatively well; which is kind of rare in the Middle East and North Africa. More importantly, it means that the clergy in Saudi Arabia can spread the kind of insane messages that have spread across the whole region like wildfire.

Honestly, I wish the US would just embargo Saudi Arabia, because that will cut this problem at its root. Their oil isn't needed, and as someone who is informed about the atrocities of the Saudi Arabian government I don't want it either. It's easily a survivable supply drop; 70% of US oil still comes from Canada.

I looked at Bahraini law because of the events going on recently, and found that compared to Saudi Arabia they're actually somewhat progressive (women were given voting rights in 2002, for example). Although, when you're comparing civil and human rights with Saudi Arabia, you're probably going to look decent unless you're North Korea.

King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz of Saudi Arabia is clinically dead.

Fucking finally. I thought that monster was never going to die.

I swear, this is almost as bad as Christians telling me I never criticize Islam.

[Hotfire90]

.

[LordSlowpoke]

if the only tool you have is a hammer, might as well do your best to make all problems look like nails

i'm just waiting for the us to snap now. this can't be sustainable anymore.

[Ibid Straydrink]

On a side note, how difficult is it for an American to get into Switzerland, Sweden or Denmark..?

[MetalSlimeHunt]

On a side note, how difficult is it for an American to get into Switzerland, Sweden or Denmark..?

All three lack visa requirements for Americans.

[misko27]

Senator Lindsey Graham said on Saturday that he is going to officially approach Congress to seek military authorization for a strike on Iran to destroy the nation’s nuclear program.
http://www.pakalertpress.com/2013/09/16/sen-lindsey-graham-to-congress-lets-just-blow-up-iran/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm
I think a War with Iran is very likely.

No.


You see, this is why I look into things. Info is very hard to get, and usually the only thing that can be taken as fact is something filtered from all over the spectrum, and statistics, which are often true, if amazingly pliable. Interpretations vary widely, I know from experience.


Anyway my investigation says that he is in fact presenting a motion to Congress (as a last resort, mind) but to say it's is going to happen is pushing it very far. At the most, Israel does what it does and swoops in and bombs a ton of stuff. If one thing is to be learned from the Syria Crisis, it's that people really don't like war right now, and there will be a lot of objections even in the face of a National Security threat. The likelihood of anything even remotely notable passing in Congress with the Government Shutdown and Debt ceiling debates in full swing in nil. Even under-the-radar, highly popular bills are falling.

if the only tool you have is a hammer, might as well do your best to make all problems look like nails

i'm just waiting for the us to snap now. this can't be sustainable anymore.

If the Roman empire went on for hundreds of years after shit began hitting the fan in epic proportions, this is not the end of the US. Hell it's more stable then most Western Governments right now, and that says something. Even something absurdly stupid like shutting down the government will simply lead to a change in the balance of power.


Anyway, Rouhani will be in New York soon, UN getting into session, so we should see something there. Also, on a totally unrelated note, the wanted Dictator of Sudan plans to be there, despite having warrants for his arrest in the International Criminal Court, and many organizations have called on the US to arrest him, including the UN itself, the ICC, Human Rights watch, et all. Complicating this is the US's status as Host Country, meaning it can;'t legally deny a Visa to anyone in the UN, and the US having not signed the ICC charter.

[Zangi]

Anyway, Rouhani will be in New York soon, UN getting into session, so we should see something there. Also, on a totally unrelated note, the wanted Dictator of Sudan plans to be there, despite having warrants for his arrest in the International Criminal Court, and many organizations have called on the US to arrest him, including the UN itself, the ICC, Human Rights watch, et all. Complicating this is the US's status as Host Country, meaning it can;'t legally deny a Visa to anyone in the UN, and the US having not signed the ICC charter.

I find it funny(and will be surprised) if the US doesn't just flaunt their 'I'm right and everyone agrees, so you'll be arrested anyways and only my detractors will care' card.  But I don't know how these international UN things work.

[Sheb]

I doubt it. The US doesn't care much for the ICC and it would be a blow to diplomacy if baddies don't dare to attend UN sessions anymore.