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[Guardian G.I.]

Alternative scenario: USA and NATO don't start a Libya-style intervention, the Syrian army defeats the rebels, Assad wins the war.
The defeated rebels go underground and start a guerilla war against the Syrian government. The Western countries, Saudi Arabia and Qatar supply them with weapons and ammunition. Bashar Assad's regime, struggling to rebuild the devastated Syrian economy and defeat the rebel guerillas, becomes increasingly dependent on Russia and Iran for economic and military aid.

[Sheb]

Pretty much what's going on now.

[Owlbread]

I think people are misjudging the FSA. Nowadays when rebellions start and people are killing each-other in the middle east, things tend to get quite religious for a number of reasons. I always expect to see shahada flags and to hear shouts of "Allahu akbar" or "Bismillah al-Rahman al-Rahim" and so forth, even if they're fighting over a secessionist province or an ethnic conflict or whatever. I don't really blame them, to be honest; given how influential religion is in these countries and how quickly humans find god in foxholes. I'm an atheist and I think I'd probably join in with the Islamic war cries if I had to blow up tanks.

The military command and the companion government of the FSA itself is secular. If they got into power they would not be "Islamist" in the same vein as the Muslim Brotherhood. The problem is that there are Sunni Islamic fundamentalist groups within the FSA, but the majority of them are defecting to the al-Nusra Front, as I have said.

[10ebbor10]

I think people are misjudging the FSA. Nowadays when rebellions start and people are killing each-other in the middle east, things tend to get quite religious for a number of reasons. I always expect to see shahada flags and to hear shouts of "Allahu akbar" or "Insha'allah" or whatever, even if they're fighting over a secessionist province or an ethnic conflict or whatever. The military command and the companion government of the FSA itself is secular. If they got into power they would not be "Islamist" in the same vein as the Muslim Brotherhood.

Nope, they wouldn't be. But there's a 90% chance that if they get in power, and hold elections, an islam inspired party will win. Probably a conservative party too.

[Owlbread]

Nope, they wouldn't be. But there's a 90% chance that if they get in power, and hold elections, an islam inspired party will win. Probably a conservative party too.

If the majority of people want a conservative, Islamic government, so be it.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Nope, they wouldn't be. But there's a 90% chance that if they get in power, and hold elections, an islam inspired party will win. Probably a conservative party too.

If the majority of people want a conservative, Islamic government, so be it.

That is not how a functional democratic system operates. When a conservative, Islamist government is established the democratic process is quickly decimated as Mosque and State synthesize. Then you end up with a situation like in Iran, where no matter how many people want reform the system is ultimately a theocracy, not a democracy.

The only way a democratic government can survive in a Muslim-majority nation is for there to be a strict and unmovable separation of Mosque and State.

[Sheb]

Turkey had a conservative Islamists government for 10 years now, and it's not a Theocracy.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

And you see how well that turned out. Turkey is fortunate in that it has had generations worth of secularism to stem the tide of political Islam. Erdogan has dug himself a deep, deep hole to lie in by trying to undo that.

[RedKing]

Nope, they wouldn't be. But there's a 90% chance that if they get in power, and hold elections, an islam inspired party will win. Probably a conservative party too.

If the majority of people want a conservative, Islamic government, so be it.

That is not how a functional democratic system operates.

Ever consider that the majority may not WANT a functional democratic system?

[10ebbor10]

Do note that Turkey wasn't doing very well before the AKP came along. High inflation, protectionist economy, many military coups, subversion of the democratic process at every point possible to avoid the ascension of a Religious party to power. The people you see in the streets these days are only a minority. Pretty sure that unless this escalates*, the AKP will win the next elections. They'll take losses, certainly, but they'll win.

*Which might happen. Erdogan is not the most diplomatic person.

Nope, they wouldn't be. But there's a 90% chance that if they get in power, and hold elections, an islam inspired party will win. Probably a conservative party too.

If the majority of people want a conservative, Islamic government, so be it.

They don't. Not really. They just don't know any better. Can't blame them for that though. They have little reason to trust "Democracy".

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Nope, they wouldn't be. But there's a 90% chance that if they get in power, and hold elections, an islam inspired party will win. Probably a conservative party too.

If the majority of people want a conservative, Islamic government, so be it.

That is not how a functional democratic system operates.

Ever consider that the majority may not WANT a functional democratic system?

I have no doubt they probably don't want it, but it would be good for them and the world. Call me a paternalistic western imperialist if you want, but the fact is that what the majority wants might lead to terrible things. They need to be constrained, like in any democracy. The US would have ended up the exact same way if not for the wisdom of the founders. We almost did despite that coughcoughgreatawakeningcoughmassachusettesbaycolonycoughanticatholicismcoughcoughcough.

[10ebbor10]

I think I'm missing a negation here.

So we're going to be imperialistic in forcing a democratic system on the nation, and then we're going to ignore it's mostly inevitable result(Ie, Islam party victory). Sounds like a great idea.

[Owlbread]

I think the problem here is that we have conflicting opinions on what is "democratic" and what is not. That is to be expected, of course.

[RedKing]

Nope, they wouldn't be. But there's a 90% chance that if they get in power, and hold elections, an islam inspired party will win. Probably a conservative party too.

If the majority of people want a conservative, Islamic government, so be it.

That is not how a functional democratic system operates.

Ever consider that the majority may not WANT a functional democratic system?

I have no doubt they probably don't want it, but it would be good for them and the world. Call me a paternalistic western imperialist if you want, but the fact is that what the majority wants might lead to terrible things. They need to be constrained, like in any democracy. The US would have ended up the exact same way if not for the wisdom of the founders. We almost did despite that coughcoughgreatawakeningcoughmassachusettesbaycolonycoughanticatholicismcoughcoughcough.

I can't abide that line of thinking. You can't be all about a nation having self-determination, and then reject it when their self-determination goes in a direction you don't like. That seriously undermines the very concept of democracy and makes us incredibly hypocritical. It would hardly be the first time, but that's the sort of bullshit that makes the US disliked in so many parts of the world.

They don't "hate us for our freedom", they hate us because we insist that their freedom look exactly like ours.

[Bauglir]

"It's your choice, but you're only allowed to make the right decision."