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Author Topic: Egypt and the world and Libya - Now without Ukraine!  (Read 372380 times)

Leatra

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #4005 on: May 08, 2013, 07:44:23 pm »

It seems a bit like getting involved has a potential for trouble equal to not getting involved.  Therefore, we must analyze benefits only, if doubts about the negatives are too confused.

So, Possible benefits to getting involved:
  • Strengthening views of West. (Helping poor rebels.)
  • Aiding Liberty or something along those lines.
  • Increased chance for friendly government to arise.
  • Quicker end to war. (A government regains control and terrorist groups operating through there are weakened.)
Benefits to not getting involved:
  • Not having to deal with it. (Wash our hands of it. Not my problem.)
  • No Chance of inflammatory mistakes.
  • Something about Sovereignty and self-determination or some such bull.
Given these, I have to go with some form of limited involvement.

Heh, I can't hold myself back from saying that his comment says a lot to me about USA's view on what's going on in the East.
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misko27

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #4006 on: May 08, 2013, 09:34:12 pm »

I am speaking from a foreign policy perspective, ergo I ignore internal US arguments, or popular/unpopular things. Were I to go into politics, I could expand the list massively. Also the list is a bit simplified, I could go into sub categories as diverse as the effects of Isreal and Hezbollah, but I put that under the vague"friendly government". And Inflammatory mistake includes excacerbating tension in the region, while Quicker end refers to the counter-part, namely tensions will arise even, and especially, if the war continues.

In general FP is handled by the Prez, and he hit term limits, and does not appear to give a damn about what his party thinks. And people who put you in power generally are less concerned with Foreign policy barring certain circumstances.
Heh, I can't hold myself back from saying that his comment says a lot to me about USA's view on what's going on in the East.
I am intensely curious as to what you are referring to specifically.
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Askot Bokbondeler

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #4007 on: May 09, 2013, 01:20:41 am »

   
  • Something about Sovereignty and self-determination or some such bull.
is this sarcasm?

misko27

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #4008 on: May 09, 2013, 01:37:07 am »

   
  • Something about Sovereignty and self-determination or some such bull.
is this sarcasm?
Meh. You could make intense ideological arguments for both sides. Best approach to Foreign Policy is to ignore them completely. Again, referring solely to the actual other countries bit, not politics.


No one is inherently right or wrong in an ideological situation, and as fine and dandy as that is, it doesn't affect the fact that an answer, a definitive answer, is needed for implementation.
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palsch

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #4009 on: May 09, 2013, 07:18:49 am »

The Realpolitik here is probably more important than any abstract concepts. And that points to the US not being overly involved for a while yet.

For starters, what are American interests here? Arguably the greatest benefit the US can have is to keep Syria unstable and off the world stage. Assad regaining control would re-enforce the Iran-Syria-Hezbollah opposition to Israel, which indirectly hurts the US by forcing greater support of an ever more hostile Israel. On the other hand the rebels hardly look likely to support the US if they did gain control. Maybe if there was earlier and deeper involvement, but even then it was a long shot. The US trying to swing a victory where some ally comes into power seems incredibly unlikely from here.

So then we have humanitarian concerns. Obviously there are fog-of-war problems determining when whatever lines you choose have been crossed which, in Syria and with active disinformation on both sides, pretty much makes the go/no-go call entirely arbitrary and hard to defend. Further, there is no international modern doctrine of pre-emptive engagement to prevent humanitarian problems. The closest we have ever come was the UN resolution against Libya which called for UN authorised forces to use force in the protection of civilians. That resolution is now seen as a strategic error by both Russia and China and I don't see anything like it passing in the near future. And unilateral action on the part of the US seems even less likely right now, especially if it is flying in the face of other major powers (in this case, Russia) or the UN.

But imagine that world opinion did swing all the way and the UN authorised an intervention. What would any intervention look like? I'm going to take it as read that there is no scenario where the US is going to invade. Boots on the ground look unlikely at best. Any such intervention would be - as a maximum engagement level - along the lines of the Libyan one; an actively maintained no-fly zone combined with (mostly distant) air support of rebel forces. Except, even leaving out that last bit, such an engagement would be far more substantial than was involved in Libya.

Syria has a substantial air-defence network. While it can be penetrated (as Israel proved) establishing a no-fly zone would be far more involved. You effectively have to destroy their entire air and anti-air capability, then maintain that control for as long as the zone needs to be maintained. Given the quality of Syria's defences you would be talking hundreds of airstrikes and missions, very likely involving lost American aircraft and crew. It would be closer to the effort the Air Force put into the initial invasion of Iraq than the efforts over Libya, especially if it were a unilateral or bilateral (with Israel) effort. The cost would be obscene, even before looking at how it would distract from other ongoing American operations and readiness in other theatres.
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Sheb

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #4010 on: May 10, 2013, 01:29:48 am »

IIRC, the Air Force "prep" of Iraq ran pretty smoothly. Anyway, don't forget the risks of Assad's weapons (including chemical warheads) falling into Hezbollah's hands. The longer the conflict drag on, the more likely it is.
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Owlbread

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MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #4012 on: May 31, 2013, 07:34:19 am »

Fucking finally. I thought that monster was never going to die.
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Zangi

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #4013 on: May 31, 2013, 07:52:57 am »

Fucking finally. I thought that monster was never going to die.
I had the impression that he was an ok guy... actually making reforms toward some sort of pseudo-democracy or some such?
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MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #4014 on: May 31, 2013, 07:56:26 am »

Not good enough for me. Not even close, really.
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Frumple

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #4015 on: May 31, 2013, 07:58:29 am »

Yeah... if there's anything the states have taught us, it's that going about trying to implement varying sorts of democracy isn't even remotely sufficient condition for non-monster status, heh. Other things might be, but that certainly isn't.
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misko27

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #4016 on: May 31, 2013, 08:43:11 am »

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Sheb

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #4017 on: May 31, 2013, 09:28:13 am »

Plus, since the crown goes from brothers to brothers, we'll have a change of leadership every few years now.

I'm still not so sure it's great. The House of Saud may be monsters, but they're still a counterpoint to the Wahhabi clergy that run most of the country. Now, the Wahhabi faction will get more and more power.
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MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #4018 on: May 31, 2013, 09:32:47 am »

That would depend upon who amongst them gets the crown. An anti-Wahhabist successor is not impossible. Unlikely, but not impossible.

His brothers range in age from 60 to late 80s, so the lifetime of the successor could vary.
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Sheb

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #4019 on: May 31, 2013, 09:39:29 am »

But isn't the oldest brother supposed to inherit?

EDIT: Just checked on wikipedia, it's agnatic seniority succession with some leeway. Current Crown Prince is Salman bin Abdulaziz, 78.
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