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[MetalSlimeHunt]

Eventually, North Korea is going to have to let the outside in, simply as a matter of survival. Once that happens the regime will end.

[Karnewarrior]

It is a testament to the Kims that they managed to hold together that sort of nation for so long. Either they or the people under them have some amount of competence, after you make the allowance that they're cartoonishly evil.

[Guardian G.I.]

The situation inside North Korea wasn't always bad. North Korea used to import oil, fertilizers and other vital goods from the USSR. Things got bad after the collapse of the Soviet Union, when the vital imports keeping the North Korean economy afloat ceased.

[misko27]

Yeah, now China is all they have. And it doesn't havve the USSR's ability to not give a shit what the west thinks. At least not in the past few years. They know it looks bad to support deranged lunatics.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

They won't have China for much longer. China and North Korea are going in fundamentally different directions, and the latter is quickly losing its worth to the former. Pretty much the only thing they can provide China now is keeping a pro-US Korea away from their borders, and eventually that might not be enough for them, especially with the factor of them being batshit and having nuclear weapons is thrown in.

[misko27]

I think the plain factor of keeping the nuclear armed idiots under lock and key might be enough.

[Sheb]

Well, North Korea could still move in the right direction. Maybe Young Kim ain't as insane as Old and Older Kim.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

He'd have to be a paragon of moral virtue to not be corrupted by the kind of power he has now, and given his upbringing I don't think that's very likely. Forget about shutting them down, we'll be lucky if he doesn't expand the death camps.

[RedKing]

China's main interest in propping up North Korea is twofold:

1. They make a handy distraction vis-a-vis the United States. But the calculus is shifting, to where China would prefer to see the United States kindly pick up its shit and depart East Asia, which China increasingly sees as its own sphere. North Korean threats give the US an excuse to stick around in force in South Korea and Japan. It's also provided justification for the JSDF to steadily remilitarize, and as of 2010 Japan announced a change in their defensive policies away from a Cold War focus and instead focusing on protecting Japanese claims outside the Home Islands, like in the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. China (government and people both) strongly dislike the idea of Japan remilitarizing. They've never forgotten World War II (and indeed, it's kind of hard to forget when it's such a constant trope in Chinese pop culture).

2. An NK collapse would mean millions of refugees streaming across the border looking for food and shelter (but mostly food). There's already a constant trickle of people slipping past the border guards, but so far they've been a minor nuisance. Chinese popular opinion is mostly sympathetic to their plight, but the official policy of the PRC is forced repatriation -- which usually means death or decades in a labor camp for the "crime" of leaving Best Korea without permission. Popular opinion could shift rapidly though, if that trickle became a flood of desperate Koreans.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Given their situation and numbers, I don't think the North Koreans would be able to make a dent in China and South Korea's supply networks. China especially, they could feed all of North Korea with a fairly trivial allocation of resources, given the number of people they have to keep from starving normally. Even so, South Korea isn't a slouch either at double North Korea's population.

[RedKing]

Given their situation and numbers, I don't think the North Koreans would be able to make a dent in China and South Korea's supply networks. China especially, they could feed all of North Korea with a fairly trivial allocation of resources, given the number of people they have to keep from starving normally. Even so, South Korea isn't a slouch either at double North Korea's population.

Assuming half of North Korea would flee north and the other half south (because really...who the hell would STAY?), that's still ~12 million pouring over a relatively small border. They might be able to feed them, but there's the issue of housing them, finding them work, registering them as citizens, etc.

For comparison, it would be like 3 million Mexicans all streaming into Texas at roughly the same time and setting up refugee camps. That would be a major strain on our supply networks.

[misko27]

Given their situation and numbers, I don't think the North Koreans would be able to make a dent in China and South Korea's supply networks. China especially, they could feed all of North Korea with a fairly trivial allocation of resources, given the number of people they have to keep from starving normally. Even so, South Korea isn't a slouch either at double North Korea's population.

Assuming half of North Korea would flee north and the other half south (because really...who the hell would STAY?), that's still ~12 million pouring over a relatively small border. They might be able to feed them, but there's the issue of housing them, finding them work, registering them as citizens, etc.

For comparison, it would be like 3 million Mexicans all streaming into Texas at roughly the same time and setting up refugee camps. That would be a major strain on our supply networks.

And, to carry the analogy further,republicans would jump off the deep-end.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Assuming half of North Korea would flee north and the other half south (because really...who the hell would STAY?), that's still ~12 million pouring over a relatively small border. They might be able to feed them, but there's the issue of housing them, finding them work, registering them as citizens, etc.

Which is why we should probably have underground plans with China and South Korea to manage a collapse by keeping the North Koreans in North Korea. Set up aid lines, set up a neutral transitional government, and keep things stable. Leave unification an open question as to not scare China off.

[Pnx]

Well, North Korea could still move in the right direction. Maybe Young Kim ain't as insane as Old and Older Kim.

He'd have to be a paragon of moral virtue to not be corrupted by the kind of power he has now, and given his upbringing I don't think that's very likely. Forget about shutting them down, we'll be lucky if he doesn't expand the death camps.

Thought I'd jump in and say that although the NK government is probably the world's most opaque, I'm actually under the impression that most of the big decisions are actually made by the top generals who double as statesmen, and that Kim Jong-Un is a kind of easily pliable figurehead. It's more than possible I'm wrong about this, and even if I'm right he could wind up taking back the reigns in full. But I just thought I'd say that that's the impression I got.

[Sheb]

Well, he did remove a few generals I think, so it seems like young Kim is in charge.

And while he is most certainly not a nice guy, maybe he'll want to go the Chinese way and develop his country while keeping it a dictatorship. At least they won't starve to death any more.