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Author Topic: Egypt and the world and Libya - Now without Ukraine!  (Read 377160 times)

MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3540 on: December 30, 2012, 08:53:34 pm »

Regional autonomy is definitely the way to go with the Kurds, at the least. Iraqi Kurdistan was a major success, and it will pave the way towards there eventually being an independant Kurdistan.
We're going to need some Turkish Kurdish autonomy for that, mind you.
Not necessarily. Between Iraq and Syria, Kurdistan could become a reality very soon. Of the remainder, Iran probably wouldn't let their Kurdish regions go in anything less than a liberal regime change or PJAK's war succeeding and Turkey is a major difficulty.

That said, once a Kurdistan is existent, NATO could serve as a bridge between them and Turkey for the release of Turkish Kurdistan. Plus, the PKK will probably cool down a great deal if there is a Kurdistan. With the fall of global communism and their leader's abandonment of orthodox communism (he's closer to radical left than outright communist now), they are more palpable as potential allies.

Indeed, both the PKK and PJAK would (and do) find a lot of sympathizers in the West. They're both secular and the latter is feminist, a sharp contrast to the Iranian state's infamous treatment of women. Fighting for a homeland in the midst of an oppressive state that your people don't identify with is also a narrative that will obviously resonate with Americans at the least. It's no surprise that there has been speculation abound about underground connections between the U.S. government and PJAK.
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Owlbread

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3541 on: December 30, 2012, 09:01:08 pm »

That said, the USA and the entire EU consider the PKK to be a terrorist organization. The American Government also made some comments about possible drug trafficking. It'll take a fair bit to get the PKK into a position where they can be a viable political force out there on an international level.
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MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3542 on: December 30, 2012, 09:08:22 pm »

That said, the USA and the entire EU consider the PKK to be a terrorist organization.
Well, of course they do. They have to keep up appearances from back when PKK was a communist insurgency, to placate Turkey, and inertia. The reality of the situation isn't that cut and dry, and both the PKK and PJAK may or may not be getting more from the West than public statements suggest.
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The American Government also made some comments about possible drug trafficking.
It's more than possible, it is almost certain. There are few outlets of black market profit lucrative enough to maintain a revolutionary fighting force other than drug trafficking. The only other option is to be funded by an outside power that wants you to succeed, or at least not fail for the time being. They've got Iraqi Kurdistan, but that's only so much and can be employed so obviously without triggering intervention.
« Last Edit: December 30, 2012, 09:10:54 pm by MetalSlimeHunt »
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XXSockXX

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3543 on: December 30, 2012, 09:09:21 pm »

Yeah, PKK is outlawed since the 90s in Germany. Also it really is complicated. It's not like there is a clear cut map of "Kurdistan", it's often on village-to-village basis. In some cases it's not even clear who is a Turk or a Kurd. For some Turkish nationalists Kurds don't even really exist and are Turks. They are on their way, allowing kurdish language to be spoken and such, but it's gonna be a long way. But splitting up the country is not gonna happen, and I don't think anyone in EU or NATO is ever going to suggest that, that would be impossible.
« Last Edit: December 30, 2012, 09:12:06 pm by XXSockXX »
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Owlbread

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3544 on: December 30, 2012, 09:11:55 pm »

I think it could happen if enough work is done for it. Autonomy can lead on to independence if handled properly. It'll take decades and decades, but it can be done.
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XXSockXX

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3545 on: December 30, 2012, 09:14:36 pm »

As I said, it's way more complicated than say separating Scotland from the UK or Katalonia from Spain. It would be a very weird looking map.
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Owlbread

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3546 on: December 30, 2012, 09:16:46 pm »

As I said, it's way more complicated than say separating Scotland from the UK or Katalonia from Spain. It would be a very weird looking map.

This isn't about territorial integrity and something looking nice on a map, it's about national identity, self determination and all that stuff. However, politicians with vested interests in stuff like this know that if you word it very carefully, "something looking nice on a map" can actually be an effective argument for certain people.
« Last Edit: December 30, 2012, 09:21:41 pm by Owlbread »
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ChairmanPoo

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3547 on: December 30, 2012, 09:19:38 pm »

"Katalonia"?
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XXSockXX

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3548 on: December 30, 2012, 09:29:49 pm »

This isn't about territorial integrity and something looking nice on a map, it's about national identity, self determination and all that stuff.
Well, sure, but you would have to figure out a kind of territorial integrity that would work, you can't have hundreds of isolated towns as a territory. The Turks are starting to recognize a kurdish identity, but their own national identity is based on the idea that there only Turks in Turkey, similar to (but way more oppressive and violent at times) how the French concept of national identity works.
And self determination is always a question of how much you can realize that. In many cases it does not lead to sustainable states, and if it disrupts the peace in a whole region (there are Kurds in Iran too), it doesn't look so good for independance.

"Katalonia"?
Right, in English it's "Catalonia", completely different spelling there  ;). They might go for independance soon too, even before the Scots.
« Last Edit: December 30, 2012, 09:32:38 pm by XXSockXX »
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MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3549 on: December 30, 2012, 09:32:01 pm »

We can make a decent enough map. You don't have to put every Kurd in Kurdistan, just the core region of their ethnic group. If the outliers don't like where they end up they can immigrate.
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XXSockXX

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3550 on: December 30, 2012, 09:37:41 pm »

We can make a decent enough map. You don't have to put every Kurd in Kurdistan, just the core region of their ethnic group. If the outliers don't like where they end up they can immigrate.
That is the worst you can do. Thinking like this after WW1 contributed a lot to nationalism in Germany before WW2. Telling people to leave their home and drawing borders where there are no clear cut borders is behind most ethnic conflicts in the whole world.
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Owlbread

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3551 on: December 30, 2012, 09:40:41 pm »

We can make a decent enough map. You don't have to put every Kurd in Kurdistan, just the core region of their ethnic group. If the outliers don't like where they end up they can immigrate.
That is the worst you can do. Thinking like this after WW1 contributed a lot to nationalism in Germany before WW2. Telling people to leave their home and drawing borders where there are no clear cut borders is behind most ethnic conflicts in the whole world.

The answer would be to have the core region of Kurds autonomous or independent, but the rest would seek recognition within the Turkish area. Either that or you do a Gagauzia:

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

Ideally, you'd have a Kurdish state and a Turkish state with autonomous Kurdish communities. Same if there's Turks in Kurdistan.
« Last Edit: December 30, 2012, 09:47:16 pm by Owlbread »
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MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3552 on: December 30, 2012, 09:41:09 pm »

We can make a decent enough map. You don't have to put every Kurd in Kurdistan, just the core region of their ethnic group. If the outliers don't like where they end up they can immigrate.
That is the worst you can do. Thinking like this after WW1 contributed a lot to nationalism in Germany before WW2. Telling people to leave their home and drawing borders where there are no clear cut borders is behind most ethnic conflicts in the whole world.
Drawing borders without consulting the people living there contributes to ethnic conflict. Those involved in the diplomatic process just have to pay attention. Put the Kurd-majority regions in Kurdistan, negotiate with the parity regions, and probably leave out the Kurd-minority areas altogether. Do referendums in every town if you have to, under objective foreign observation. Offer open immigration to Kurds living in places that don't become part of Kurdistan.

That'll take a while, but it's not an impossible or even improbable task by any means.
« Last Edit: December 30, 2012, 09:43:46 pm by MetalSlimeHunt »
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To argue with a man who has renounced the use and authority of reason, and whose philosophy consists in holding humanity in contempt, is like administering medicine to the dead, or endeavoring to convert an atheist by scripture.
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XXSockXX

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3553 on: December 30, 2012, 09:50:34 pm »

I feel like you are imagining these things too easy to be done. I can't think of an example even in recent history, where people are a lot more careful with these things, where such a decision has worked out to everyone's satisfaction.
I had kind of high hopes conflicts like this would dissappear at least in Europe, but we all know how well that worked out. Although it might be interesting how the Turks are going to handle this IF they should join the EU (if that is still a thing in 10 years  ;)).
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MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3554 on: December 30, 2012, 09:55:59 pm »

Nobody has ever been careful with these things before. Your "recent history" is the European powers dropping all their colonies and letting the borders fall where they will.
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To argue with a man who has renounced the use and authority of reason, and whose philosophy consists in holding humanity in contempt, is like administering medicine to the dead, or endeavoring to convert an atheist by scripture.
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