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Author Topic: Egypt and the world and Libya - Now without Ukraine!  (Read 377258 times)

DJ

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3450 on: December 03, 2012, 12:54:12 pm »

With the way things are going in Egypt, I don't see the Islamists winning the next elections. And I don't think they could get away with suspending or even just rigging them.
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MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3451 on: December 03, 2012, 12:56:52 pm »

Given that they think themselves the agents of god's will on Earth, I could totally see them doing both of those things.
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DJ

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3452 on: December 03, 2012, 01:05:45 pm »

I think they'd have a revolution on their hands if they did. And the military would jump at the opportunity to join the rebels.
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Scoops Novel

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3453 on: December 03, 2012, 01:09:51 pm »

How much support do the military have? As i understand it they don't have a much better rapport then the MB.
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DJ

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3454 on: December 03, 2012, 01:11:31 pm »

Not enough to lead a revolution, but I can see them joining a popular one just to get back at Mursi for the recent purge and defanging.
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MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3455 on: December 03, 2012, 01:12:06 pm »

The military doesn't need public support, they have the weapons.
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DJ

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3456 on: December 03, 2012, 01:13:39 pm »

But it certainly helps the grunts' morale if they're fighting alongside their families rather than against them.
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Zangi

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3457 on: December 03, 2012, 01:28:10 pm »

The military doesn't need public support, they have the weapons.
Armed fightingsuppression would probably get all the military commanders involved hanged sooner or later.  They probably had the foresight of that during the first regime change... 
Who knows though, they can now look at Libya and Syria as two examples of things going bad for the military. 

Libya lost to the rebels, thanks to foreign intervention.  And the 'pro-Gaddafi' military has probably been mostly dismantled.
Syria is now mired in a protracted rebellion where neither side is gaining too much headway.  And while that is happening, foreign support for the Syrian Regime is at an all time low and is in danger of intervention similar to Libya...

The Egyptian military sounds like a rational actor, it does not have the hardline views of some others, is not subservient to any higher power like Gaddafi/Assad... and its highest interest seems to be self-preservation.
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Sheb

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3458 on: December 03, 2012, 01:31:09 pm »

Well, a coup following a legal coup by Morsi (or even a close victory) would probably pass.
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Wayward Device

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3459 on: December 03, 2012, 02:44:56 pm »

The Egyptian military sounds like a rational actor, it does not have the hardline views of some others, is not subservient to any higher power like Gaddafi/Assad... and its highest interest seems to be self-preservation.

Basically this. Anyone member there exact stance during the protest/revolution? Right at the start senior commanders (can't remember exactly who) put out a statement saying something on the lines of "we're not going to get involved in all this business, neither to support nor overthrow Mubarak, it would taint the whole military, whose sole purpose is to defend Egypt. We will stand around in the streets and give the appearance of safety though."

Of course, as a rough estimate of the professionalism and discipline of the Egyptian (cults of personality notwithstanding, I would generally argue that the more disciplined and professional an army is, the less likely it is to slaughter its own civilians) they are the only force in the world to even come close to winning a war against Israel (the 1979 Yom Kippur War). I'm lucky enough (kinda) to personally know three people who were there (two as combatants, one as a journalist1). The Egyptians came extremely close to driving the Israelis into the sea. Seriously, if you have any interest at all in warfare modern or otherwise, you should really read at least the wikipedia page on it, The Crossing, early pwning of the Israeli armored counterattack by entrenched Egyptian infantry with antitank weapons and the Israeli commando raids/ surprise counterattacks that meant we are still living in a world yet to have a full scale nuclear war, very interesting stuff. 

What I'm trying to say is that the Egyptian army is a well trained, modern, disciplined force, as opposed to a bunch of poorly paid unwilling conscripts/highly paid mercenaries with no loyalty, so they're much less likely to massacre their own people.

That said, I have been hearing a lot of rumors from Egyptians I know that the army has been having trouble paying their soldiers at the moment and that they (the army, in the sense of the large body of humans who derive a living for their families from military service, as opposed the official entity that protects Egypt, recruits and trains soldiers and fights wars) are getting pretty pissed off at the MB (as the group nominally in charge who should be making sure shit like that ticks over like clockwork), which if true can't be good for their future power. After all, its one thing to have people to oppose you for ideological reasons but quite another to have them do it because you are so incompetent that everyone can see it.         

1. My dad was the journalist, and he was almost killed at the start of the successful part of Israeli counterattack. He was in a trench with the squad he'd been assigned to follow, relatively far back from the front, but still close enough because the Egyptians were basically fortified in a long, fat line along the Israeli side of the canal. He got out to take a piss, moved a bit away and was sprayed with the body parts of the Egyptian soldiers he'd been making friends with for the last week as a mortar shell hit the trench. He had a full on mental breakdown that took him about a year to recover from.   

The other two were the grandfather (an Egyptian, radio operator) of one of my best friends from school and the father of my first serious girlfriend (an Israeli, a tank commander (he commanded a tank), took part in the failed initial armored counterattack, came through completely unscathed).   
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ChairmanPoo

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3460 on: December 03, 2012, 05:13:48 pm »

The military are potential junta-rulers so they're not really good news either....
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Sheb

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3461 on: December 04, 2012, 03:00:28 am »

To be fair, none of the actors look really good. Whet we're hoping for here is that they keep each other in check.
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Scoops Novel

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3462 on: December 04, 2012, 05:15:50 am »

Do you forsee any further uprisings? At this stage it does not look good for the syrian or egyptian goverment, the latter of which i see a hard time living down what's viewed as an attempt to make themselves dictators. Incidentally, which countries have very little chance of western support?
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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3463 on: December 04, 2012, 07:52:54 am »

... Incidentally, which countries have very little chance of western support?
Those that do not vote as western countries would like them to?
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Sheb

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3464 on: December 04, 2012, 07:54:43 am »

Well, most of them, as China and Russia keep blocking stuff.
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