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Author Topic: Egypt and the world and Libya - Now without Ukraine!  (Read 377664 times)

RedKing

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3225 on: October 11, 2012, 10:34:18 am »

Interesting potential for some micro-politics here. I'd expect the Syrian Kurds to suddenly become staunch supporters of the Assad government. Because they know if shit gets real and Turkey comes over the border in force, they're going to be taking shot at PKK sanctuaries, and probably expect a reprisal against the Kurdish community in general. Which could become a self-fulfilling prophecy if it gets known that the Kurds are helping Assad.
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Guardian G.I.

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3226 on: October 11, 2012, 10:52:27 am »

Interesting potential for some micro-politics here. I'd expect the Syrian Kurds to suddenly become staunch supporters of the Assad government. Because they know if shit gets real and Turkey comes over the border in force, they're going to be taking shot at PKK sanctuaries, and probably expect a reprisal against the Kurdish community in general. Which could become a self-fulfilling prophecy if it gets known that the Kurds are helping Assad.
It's hard to tell if the Kurds currently support President Assad. The rebel-aligned media report that the Kurds support the rebels, the Syrian government-aligned media report completely the opposite...
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Sheb

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3227 on: October 11, 2012, 10:53:05 am »

A lot of minorities just tried to stay out of the conflict.
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Montague

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3228 on: October 11, 2012, 10:56:47 am »

The Kurds hate the Syrian government because they are routinely oppressed by it. Actually, Kurds pretty much hate everybody they live, PDK is a multinational and very popular separatist movement, after all.

I imagine some Kurds are with the rebellion, but I'd really expect them to act in force once the government is about to collapse or sometime after. They might go right on fighting a civil war after the government's fall if they believe they can secure independence.
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MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3229 on: October 11, 2012, 10:57:50 am »

While the Kurds could potentially support Assad to keep Turkey away, they could just as easily support the rebels due to the potential of breaking away as a free Kurdistan during the exchange of power, or at least gaining some degree of regional autonomy a'la Iraqi Kurdistan.
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Owlbread

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3230 on: October 11, 2012, 11:04:04 am »

I'm still waiting to see the full extent of Iraqi Kurdistan's involvement in the region. Would they just sit back and watch the Turks/FSA/Asaad's Forces wrench power from their Kurdish brothers in Syria?

The Kurds have also fought tooth and nail against Asaad's forces to gain their self governance in that region. I don't see them supporting him any time soon.

A Kurdish gentleman in this video openly expresses opposition to the FSA and the Government: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=BBJMGhrGaPc#t=74s
« Last Edit: October 11, 2012, 11:07:24 am by Owlbread »
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Wayward Device

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3231 on: October 11, 2012, 11:40:24 am »

Just watched that video and read a little of the comments section. Heh. Just goes to show that racist, homophobic teenagers with bad spelling are a universal force wherever there's internet.
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or maybe Valve goes out of business because they invested too heavily in something which then fails - like, say, human civilization.
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RedKing

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3232 on: October 11, 2012, 12:09:34 pm »

The Kurds hate the Syrian government because they are routinely oppressed by it. Actually, Kurds pretty much hate everybody they live, PDK is a multinational and very popular separatist movement, after all.
But Syria was far more tolerant of the Kurds than Turkey or Saddam's Iraq was. And Syria has at times turned a blind eye to PKK sanctuaries on the Turkish border. And perhaps most importantly: While Kurds pretty much hate everbody whose rule they're under, they also hate those "other" Kurds in a different faction. They're the freakin' Judean Peoples' Front/Peoples' Front of Judea writ large. The PDK is but one Iraqi faction, and was at war with the KUP and PDK for a time.

I dunno, I could see it going either way. A few years ago, there was a major schism in the PKK between the Turkish-born Kurds and the Syrian-born Kurds who had come into Turkey and joined up with the PKK. The Turkish Kurds were more inclined to accepting an amnesty deal from the new AKP government, the Syrian Kurds were more inclined to allying (at least rhetorically) with al-Qaeda and stepping up terrorist attack in the west of Turkey. A lot of the Turkish Kurds wound up coming in from the cold, and then the remaining PKK got its ass handed to itself for several months by the Turkish Army. Not clear how much of that remnant wound up in Syrian sanctuaries, how much went to Iraq (where they're treated like unwelcome cousins) or how much went up into Azerbaijian.
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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3233 on: October 11, 2012, 01:25:53 pm »

A local newspaper columnist wrote that Turkey is basically using this whole thing as an excuse to go stomp on some Kurds in Syria.
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Duuvian

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3234 on: October 11, 2012, 02:14:56 pm »

He might have read the wiki on Kurdish people

But of course that does not mean he's wrong. While I'm not much of an expert on this particular matter, maybe someone should try to get representatives of the Syrian Kurds to talk to the Turks to try to see how they would react to each other should unforeseen circumstances happen. Bonus points to that person if they broker a non aggression pact of some sort.

I'm not the person to ask whether or not this is feasible.
« Last Edit: October 11, 2012, 02:18:34 pm by Duuvian »
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Sort of finished and awaiting remix due to loss of most recent song file before addition of drums:
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Owlbread

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3235 on: October 11, 2012, 03:33:03 pm »

The Kurds hate the Syrian government because they are routinely oppressed by it. Actually, Kurds pretty much hate everybody they live, PDK is a multinational and very popular separatist movement, after all.
But Syria was far more tolerant of the Kurds than Turkey or Saddam's Iraq was. And Syria has at times turned a blind eye to PKK sanctuaries on the Turkish border. And perhaps most importantly: While Kurds pretty much hate everbody whose rule they're under, they also hate those "other" Kurds in a different faction. They're the freakin' Judean Peoples' Front/Peoples' Front of Judea writ large. The PDK is but one Iraqi faction, and was at war with the KUP and PDK for a time.

I dunno, I could see it going either way. A few years ago, there was a major schism in the PKK between the Turkish-born Kurds and the Syrian-born Kurds who had come into Turkey and joined up with the PKK. The Turkish Kurds were more inclined to accepting an amnesty deal from the new AKP government, the Syrian Kurds were more inclined to allying (at least rhetorically) with al-Qaeda and stepping up terrorist attack in the west of Turkey. A lot of the Turkish Kurds wound up coming in from the cold, and then the remaining PKK got its ass handed to itself for several months by the Turkish Army. Not clear how much of that remnant wound up in Syrian sanctuaries, how much went to Iraq (where they're treated like unwelcome cousins) or how much went up into Azerbaijian.

However, despite this leniency, the Kurds in that region still rose against the Syrian government, effectively "drawing blood". The only people that the Syrian Kurds have had open conflict with has been the Syrian Government. I don't see any going back from that.
« Last Edit: October 11, 2012, 03:37:24 pm by Owlbread »
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alway

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3236 on: October 21, 2012, 06:00:53 pm »

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20024287
Seems Ahmadinejad is falling out of favor and out of power.
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Karnewarrior

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3237 on: October 21, 2012, 07:50:57 pm »

He looks a lot less crazy with glasses on.

I doubt he actually is less batshit, but he looks saner, at least.
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MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3238 on: October 21, 2012, 08:14:30 pm »

Eh, he hit Peak Crazy around 2008 or so. I doubt we'll see much more interesting insanity from him until the mobs oust him.
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Askot Bokbondeler

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3239 on: October 21, 2012, 08:16:46 pm »

i'm under the impression that he isn't as batshit as the ayatolah, so i'm expecting this to get worse before it gets better
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