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[Sheb]

Wouldn't Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf States be happy to see Assad falls because it'd weaken Iran? Libya would support Turkey, for all it's worth. And I guess no one would seriously oppose a Turkish intervention (Except Hezbollah and Iran), because no one want to look like he's siding with Assad (Not only do you look bad in the West's eyes, but also in Syria's future leaders'.

[RedKing]

You have to make a distinction between the governments and the people (and recognize that the peoples' opinion is a factor, even in dictatorships).
For example, King Abdullah of Jordan would probably support Turkey, but he does have to consider a lot of factors, including the fact that the Jordanian popular opinion is increasingly restive and anti-Western. And liable to see some solidarity with fellow Arabs vs. "foreign" Turks (especially given the shared history of Syria and Jordan as former Ottoman Turk holdings).

There's also the fact that no autocrats in the Arab world are exactly rooting to see another one of their kind fall to a popular rebellion. The Arab Spring has lost a lot of momentum. An overthrow in Syria could reignite the flames of discontent in places like Bahrain, Jordan, even Saudia Arabia.

To sum up, it's an incredibly complex overlap of competing interests and linkages, which makes it difficult to accurately predict what the outcome would be. Add to that the considerable diplomatic pressures that will be exerted by the US, Russia, the EU, Iran and China.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

More protests in Saudi Arabia would be interesting. They were fairly low intensity, but they caused some decent concessions. It betrays what I suspect about the Saudi Arabian government, that being that they are very afraid of losing power and will willingly give up some of their power to offset greater discontent.

[RedKing]

Depends on who the protesters are.
Wahhabi clerics? Maybe concessions.
Bourgeois Sunni Arabs? Probably some minor concessions.
The Shi'ite minority? F**k 'em, send in the tanks.

The Saudi royal family has been doing a delicate balancing act for at least 20 years now, between the liberal forces in Saudi society that want to see greater political freedoms and reform, women's rights, etc., and the uber-conservative Wahhabi state clergy (and more than a few members of the Royal Family, which occupies virtually all the important ministries in the government and top army positions). They're trying to play both sides to ally with them against the other, without making either side really all that powerful and becoming a threat to the current regime.

The Shi'a are entirely outside this paradigm. Their role is essentially to GET IN THE KITCHEN AND MAKE ME A FALAFEL SAMMICH.

[Sheb]

Just heard on the Radio Turkey has been moving tanks to bases near the Syrian borders.

[Guardian G.I.]

Russian television routinely reported yesterday that Vladimir Putin was discussing the situation in Syria on the phone with Turkey's Prime Minister Erdogan. And today, Turkey sends troops to its borders. Interesting...

Also, apparently Free Syrian Army rebels desecrate Christian churches.

[Sheb]

You gotta love RT. At least you know where they're getting their orders from. :p

[scriver]

It is pretty well known that the various minorities has had a somewhat unrepressed living in Syria so far (as in at least not persecuted/worse than anyone else). There is a lot of support for the regime there simply out of fear that it will become worse if the Sunni get into power. It wouldn't surprise me if there's a lot of hostility in return from the FSA.

[olemars]

That is a bit of a staple for oppressive regimes, particularly in that region. Keep any old antagonism between ethnic/religious groups alive, then use that to impress the need for a strong security state and authoritarian regime because "without us there will be chaos and death immediately". See Egypt and their Coptic Christians, Sinai Bedouins and Muslim Brotherhood. See also Libya and every fucking village and settlement.

[Sheb]

Assad actually went the extra miles. When you have Alawi militias (See Hama massacre) massacring villagers, it's a pretty good way to make sure everyone will want revenge against the Alawi. And the Alawi are then too frightened of the opposition to desert you.

Divide and conquer indeed.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Unfortunately, I can see no way that change will come to these places that doesn't involve a lot of blood and death. It was like that for Europe, it'll be the same for the Middle East now that the ball is finally rolling.

[RedKing]

See also the Alawite Shi'a in Syria.
EDIT: Ninja'd by Sheb.

It's not dissimilar to the imperial pattern in Africa: raise a minority group(s) into a position of power. The majority ethnic group becomes disenfranchised, while the minority group becomes dependent on your imperial backing -- not just to retain power but to avoid wholescale genocidal reprisals a la Rwanda.

[Helgoland]

It's not dissimilar to the imperial pattern in Africa: raise a minority group(s) into a position of power. The majority ethnic group becomes disenfranchised, while the minority group becomes dependent on your imperial backing -- not just to retain power but to avoid wholescale genocidal reprisals a la Rwanda.

Hooray for post-colonialism!
(Exploitation is just so much easier when the exploited cooperate...)

Was at the airport yesterday, and an infoscreen quoted Assad as stating Syria was "at war". Being at the airport without internet or TV access, I spent the next half hour texting my dad to find out more. Turns out he was referring to the protestors (Assad, not my dad ).
But yeah, the ball is finally starting to roll. In much the same way you could claim that Al-Kaida is the muslim version of the crusades; a stage of development that is brutal, but will sooner or later be overcome.
I just hope the arabs are unlike us germans; it took us two world wars and a couple smaller ones to become a democratic nation and outgrow our nationalism.

[alway]

http://blogs.aljazeera.com/blog/asia/national-uprising-waged-afghan-rights
^Interesting article about some goings-on in Afghanistan. Short version: students and others got sick of Taliban keeping basic amenities closed, and pretty much started an armed group of several hundred spanning 4 villages to combat them. They see the Afghan government as corrupt and incompetent, though they don't attack them due to the government not interfering with their affairs. They call themselves the "National Uprising Movement"

http://blogs.aljazeera.com/topic/syria/syrian-tanks-massing-near-turkish-border-fsa
^Syria massing tanks near the Turkish border

[MetalSlimeHunt]

http://blogs.aljazeera.com/blog/asia/national-uprising-waged-afghan-rights
^Interesting article about some goings-on in Afghanistan. Short version: students and others got sick of Taliban keeping basic amenities closed, and pretty much started an armed group of several hundred spanning 4 villages to combat them. They see the Afghan government as corrupt and incompetent, though they don't attack them due to the government not interfering with their affairs. They call themselves the "National Uprising Movement"

They don't exactly seem like liberals, but anyone who fights the Taliban can't be all that bad.

http://blogs.aljazeera.com/topic/syria/syrian-tanks-massing-near-turkish-border-fsa
^Syria massing tanks near the Turkish border

http://www.cnn.com/2012/06/28/world/meast/turkey-syria-tension/index.html
^Turkey massing tanks and soldiers near the Syrian border.

My dear Bay Watchers, we have ourselves a war.