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Author Topic: Egypt and the world and Libya - Now without Ukraine!  (Read 377174 times)

Sheb

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #2715 on: June 24, 2012, 09:16:07 am »

No. But neither Egypt nor Libya were that heterogeneous. In Egypt Mubarak went away after relatively little bloodshed (although it's not over yet). In Libya, intervention was a no-brainer (It's rather easy to bomb stuff in the middle of the desert), and the fight wasn't along sectarian lines. Even then, it's still a mess, and far from peaceful, with various militias clamoring for more power.

In Syria however, Assad made it so that his departure will probably be followed by sectarian strife. That's why you had Alawite militiamen murder whole Sunni families.

Don't mistake me, I still think Assad should go. But you no longer have good and bad solutions in Syria, only bad and worse.
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Duuvian

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #2716 on: June 24, 2012, 09:24:59 am »

So let's go for least bad. This in my opinion is Western airpower. The very thought of such a mighty weapon aiming at you tends to make most people at least consider falling in line. Sure there will be bloodshed. There is already bloodshed. This is why a government-in exile of sorts needs to be organized comprised of the most competent (and acceptable to Syrians themselves) out of country Syrians and then the Syrian people must be notified of their existence. The people need to know that elections will be held in as short a time as feasibly possible once the government in exile has restored calm. Set up the most basic of infrastructure required for elections for now; regulated by whoever the Syrian people would agree to regulating. Who that might be I don't know. I'd suggest a temporary short term emergency election followed by a more respectable and thorough election in time of relative (compared to now) calm and peace. Maybe circulate the idea among the protestors that a leadership should try to evacuate West to form this government-in-exile and that the remaining leaders of the protestors should remain in contact as safely as possible.

Something like this: Link to google story

But effective and recognized; also I have no clue who those guys were but at least they tried. And those intellectuals who gathered at a meeting in Damascus at the bottom who might have formed something? Most likely they are hiding, dead, imprisoned, or worse.

As far as revenge killings, I'm sure there will be reprisals. Let's hope it's not all the alawite males as many are surely innocent. The thing is humans can be sensible beasts with some direction. If justice is promised and then delivered swiftly then the more you do of that then the less there will be of relatively innocent people's blood being spilled.
« Last Edit: June 24, 2012, 09:42:30 am by Duuvian »
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Sheb

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #2717 on: June 24, 2012, 09:47:57 am »

Using air power isn't that easy. Syria ain't Libya, you don't have those vast stretch of desert where you can target the army with minimal casualties. Bombing Syria could even backfire, because it would make Assad's claim that the opposition is made of foreign-paid thugs much more credible. That and the inevitable civilians casualties could make a lot of Syrian people side with Assad.

Creating a government-in-exile has been done, it's the Syrian National Council. The problem is that it doesn't have much on-the-ground legitimacy. And that won't change: the Free Syrian Army aren't going to recognize people sitting outside Syria as a legitimate government.

Nah, it's a mess, and the sad truth is that we're mostly powerless. At best we could negotiate with the FSA and other armed groups, promising support (especially weapons) in exchange for submitting to the SNC, and making clear (they did it already, but repeating ti never hurt) that there will be no sectarian revenge after Assad's fall, and that they'll protect everybody from such attacks. Then maybe establish safe havens, officially for humanitarian purpose but also to serve as training and fallback areas for the FSA.

Then pray everything work more or less.
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Duuvian

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #2718 on: June 24, 2012, 10:12:19 am »

Using air power isn't that easy. Syria ain't Libya, you don't have those vast stretch of desert where you can target the army with minimal casualties. Bombing Syria could even backfire, because it would make Assad's claim that the opposition is made of foreign-paid thugs much more credible. That and the inevitable civilians casualties could make a lot of Syrian people side with Assad.

Firstly, yes, as far as transporting material of war to a warzone, Syria is like Libya. There are these things called roads that most things have to be transported on, and they are mightily vulnerable from the air because they don't move very much. For what isn't necessarily transported by road; and that's tanks and such, it's fairly hard to hide a tank nowadays from what I can gather and either they move them around in force or they risk them being overrun by rebels. You'd have to have a great big tunnel that it can't shoot out of to protect it. That doesn't sound like (in a worst case scenario where they are in the city already because they made it there on the above mentioned roads and children are playing on the tanks like it wasn't a warzone) something that the civilians would worry about. Now, if they are already in the cities, then that's where infantry shines against tanks if that can ever be spoken without being smote for military heresy.

Creating a government-in-exile has been done, it's the Syrian National Council. The problem is that it doesn't have much on-the-ground legitimacy. And that won't change: the Free Syrian Army aren't going to recognize people sitting outside Syria as a legitimate government.

sarcasm->  Yeah, I'm sure the rebellious Syrian army wouldn't recognize them. Just like they'd refuse any help whatsoever offered from outside if it offered them a glimmer of hope to them in their time of war. You remember the whole communists side with the capitalists against the fascists type deal not so long ago that people still living haven't lived through it? The Russians didn't say, hell no you built those Shermans, Lees, Churchills, Hurricanes and P-40/P-39s in a capitalist pig country!

Secondly, from that same link it says that the SNC is in direct control of the Free Syrian Army.

Spoiler: Bolded (click to show/hide)

Nah, it's a mess, and the sad truth is that we're mostly powerless. At best we could negotiate with the FSA and other armed groups, promising support (especially weapons) in exchange for submitting to the SNC, and making clear (they did it already, but repeating ti never hurt) that there will be no sectarian revenge after Assad's fall, and that they'll protect everybody from such attacks. Then maybe establish safe havens, officially for humanitarian purpose but also to serve as training and fallback areas for the FSA.

No, we are not powerless.  We (as in my side) are extremely powerful and we hold ALL of the good cards. The more you speak the more I think it's not so much we as you and I. I think you might have some kind of interest in seeing Russia's policies see themselves to fruition and it's your job to say things in support of such things, internet person I hardly know.

Referring to bolded: You know what, that's uncalled for and probably will start an unfruitful argument since it could apply to myself so I apologize in advance. So that's that. But that said, reverting to 'this is hopeless you should give up' is not a good way to convince people.
« Last Edit: June 24, 2012, 10:34:35 am by Duuvian »
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Sheb

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #2719 on: June 24, 2012, 10:32:13 am »

Well, another difference between Syria and Libya is that as far as I know, the FSA didn't manage to free any large part of the country by themselves, like the Libyan did in Benghazi. Sure, some part of some cities and some small town are free, but the regime still got troops everywhere. Air power alone won't do it.

Sending weapons to the FSA seems like the way to go (Well, Qatar is already doing it, but more weapons), but that won't change the fact that at the end of the day, you'll have plenty of young men with weapons, a outside government that has no legitimacy (Because the guys that fought on the ground won't like taking orders from people that sat the whole war in Turkey, no matter what they promised to get weapons) and lots of people that want to take revenge on the Alawite/Protect themselves from the sunni. I seriously don't know how you can possibly prevent this from turning into another Iraq.

So yeah, it's going to be a mess. The world often is. I still think sending guns to the FSA is the least bad option, but I doubt it'll turn into a foreign policy disaster for Russia and I don't expect pro-Western demonstrations like we had in Libya. I don't know what your side is (US I guess?), but the West can't do much. It's going to be a mess either way, probably a slightly less bloody one if we play our cards right.

Oh, and I dislike Russia almost as much as you do, but my point is mostly that this isn't only about Russia. It's about a whole lots of things, Russia is just one of them.
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Duuvian

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #2720 on: June 24, 2012, 10:35:58 am »

Thaaaaaaank you

I don't mean that in a bad way either, it's just that was a whole lot of arguing/debating!


Also I'm for arming them if necessary but I think it would be best if they could force the military to defect with their existing equipment. After all, why make those merchants of death any richer than necessary? I suppose convenience is one reason but then you have 6months to 10 years of Israel being on edge about all the weaponry being toted on their border; depending on political climates in their respective countries.

Nonetheless though careful air support would be one of the best first steps if not the best. I think you are right in calling for specialized arms and equipment in addition though for when targets are inaccessible such as due to anything less than perfect intel in a residential, non-military industrial area, critical hard to replace infrastructure or sensitive spots that I would term landmarks.

Though I would disagree with the idea that Putin wouldn't look bad from this. It will definitely put a stain on him no matter which way it turns out. It's too late for that and I wish he would realize it and back out as gracefully as he can like he should have done quite a while ago. It would save him a substantial amount of face than if he were to try to continue supporting Syria and fail which is my guess what will happen and is it really worth the risk to himself even if he disregards everyone but that one person?

EDIT: Also I don't hate the Russians. I just don't like their government's policies. I'm an Americanized cossack of either Russian or Polish ancestry as I only know as far back as my great grandfather and mother on my father's side. I think my ancestors probably hopped the border a bit as the political winds blew until my great grandfather finally said screw it I'm going to the new world. My grandfather told my father that he saw my blacksmith great grandfather doing either some sort of cossack sword dance or the one where they go up and down and do the leg kicks. You can blame my lack of knowledge about that for my dad for being how he is and that's about as nice as I can put it.
« Last Edit: June 24, 2012, 11:30:02 am by Duuvian »
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Il Palazzo

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #2721 on: June 24, 2012, 11:22:22 am »

Western bias ftw.
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Guardian G.I.

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #2722 on: June 24, 2012, 11:27:36 am »

The fall of Assad in Syria violates Russian interests in the Middle East. The Americans may think that Russia is so afraid of confronting them that they will never intervene, but who can guarantee that? It is within Russian interests to intervene on the side of Assad because in that case Russia will at least show itself as an independent country that pursues its own foreign policy (regardless of what the USA thinks about it) and which is ready to protect its own interests abroad, regardless of what the USA thinks about it.
If Russia will step back in Syria, then Russia will show itself as a country which is too weak and cowardly to protect its own national interests and pursue its own foreign policy. In that case, the Americans will start interfering within Russian internal and foreign affairs more and more clearly, and Putin doesn't want that to happen.
« Last Edit: June 24, 2012, 11:33:33 am by Guardian G.I. »
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Duuvian

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #2723 on: June 24, 2012, 11:30:38 am »

Western bias ftw.
Anti West For the loss   :P

The fall of Assad in Syria violates Russian interests in the Middle East. The Americans may think that Russia is so afraid of confronting them that they will never intervene, but who can guarantee that? It is within Russian interests to intervene on the side of Assad because in that case Russia will at least show itself as an independent country that pursues its own foreign policy (regardless of what the USA thinks about it) and which is ready to protect its own interests abroad, regardless of what the USA thinks about it.

Another one for World War is not impossible due to this! It is all up to Putin and company if the West and local allies intervene. If he were to back out as gracefully as he may, then it could all end within months if not weeks.

Who knows; maybe they'd even let him keep that pipeline I mentioned? I'd recommend it as a carrot; no penalties on Russia for backing out.
« Last Edit: June 24, 2012, 11:36:09 am by Duuvian »
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Il Palazzo

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #2724 on: June 24, 2012, 11:33:13 am »

Western bias ftw.
Anti West For the loss   :P
Objectivism for the Golden Mean?
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Duuvian

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #2725 on: June 24, 2012, 11:36:29 am »

Western bias ftw.
Anti West For the loss   :P
Objectivism for the Golden Mean?

Say what you will, but cry some more.

EDIT: According to your theory; when does your cowardice turn into prudence?
« Last Edit: June 24, 2012, 11:40:49 am by Duuvian »
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PTTG??

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #2726 on: June 24, 2012, 11:37:09 am »

Anyone else kind of glad Egypt got a ruler who has some popular appeal and some hope of liberalism?
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MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #2727 on: June 24, 2012, 11:40:32 am »

Morsi is a self-described strict Islamist. There is absolutely no hope of liberalism there.
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Dutchling

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #2728 on: June 24, 2012, 11:41:47 am »

I was hoping the other guy would become president to be honest.
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Sheb

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #2729 on: June 24, 2012, 11:44:22 am »

Guardian, I don't agree with you. Supporting Assad will also make clear that Russia is on the bad guys' side. (Right now, they get around it by saying that they don't believe in military intervention and that it should be resolved through diplomacy, which at least save their face). It might have some short-terms benefits but on the longer terms it's bound to be a losing position: as more and more middle-eastern become democratic, Russia will loose influence.

Seriously, the staunchest allies of the US in Europe (Poland, Georgia, the Baltics countries...) were created by Russia. The idea that Russia got a zone of influence that it need to protect by rattling sabers against the US is a myth. What Russia's doing is turning off all those neighbors and sending them beg for US protection against Russian interventionism.
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