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[inteuniso]

Looks like the rebels are being held for now.

It's sad to say, but I see this escalating to a much worse situation. Frankly, even though there is a no-fly zone, the rebels are simply going to hold half the country, as they have no real military experience compared to Qaddafi's elite soldiers. They're certainly not going to take the capital, unless they get major military support from another nation.

[ChairmanPoo]

They don't even hold half the country anymore.

You know, I believe the media sold us short on their actual chances of success. Two weeks ago it was all about how the rebels were winning, half of the loyalist army had deserted, and how Quaddafi wouldn't last longer than two days because he was only holding 15% of Lybia. A week after that the rebels are barely holding their last city, and NATO generals openly express skepticism about them being able to win, even with the no-flight zone. The whole thing reminds me of the Iran revolts after Ahmaniyerad's electoral fraud.

[Aqizzar]

Nobody sold anybody short, because nobody really knew what was going on.  It's fairly obvious at this point that the rebels massively over-extended themselves after their initial surge, and collapsed backwards when left unsupported.  They have chaotic and amateur leadership when they have real leadership at all - most of the military commanders who defected are sitting back in Benghazi just hoping they don't get lynched.  And now with foreign intervention of some nebulous form essentially guaranteed until the end, including Qaddafi's armor being decimated on the highway, plenty of the smarter guys on the rebel side are basically waiting for the battle to be won for them, however that might happen.

At this point, my money is on Qaddafi being killed or vanished by his own people, probably a military coup of some form, when the loyalist commanders figure out that nobody is getting out of this alive until the Big Man is dead.  That or he gets inadvertently blown away by an air-strike when he's out doing one of his whirlwind tours.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Well, Gaddafi is missing at the moment, so he may very well be dead already. Or hiding in a secret bunker somwhere.

[ChairmanPoo]

Here's my (rather more cynical) prediction of what will happen:

Quaddafi will crush the rebels despite the no-fly zone. After that's done, he will get bombed for some weeks, and have UN sanctions imposed on him. However, in one or two years he will buy off the goodwill of the western goverments (again) and be back to business as usual.

[Nikov]

Quick! Someone ship me eighty pounds of neodymium magnets and a few thousand RPG-7V warheads!

[Bouchart]

Khadaffi probably fled to Zimbabwe or will do so in the next day or two.

You've got to remember that he was old anyway.  This would have happened the same way in a few years time, regardless.

[Urist Imiknorris]

Well, Gaddafi is missing at the moment, so he may very well be dead already. Or hiding in a secret bunker somwhere.

Like Saddam was.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Well, Gaddafi is missing at the moment, so he may very well be dead already. Or hiding in a secret bunker somwhere.

Like Saddam was.

And we all remember how well that worked out for him.

[Phmcw]

Here's a video of the rebel who claim to be in control of Misurata. If it's true (and it's more proof than what the officials gave) then things are going very badly for kadhafi.

[RedKing]

IIRC, they rebels never lost Misurata, which was impressive in itself. I was concerned it was going to be the next Zawiya and get levelled.

Reports this morning have the rebels advancing on Adjabiya once more, while Tripoli is getting hammered by nightly airstrikes. No indications of any air-to-air combat yet between European forces (I guess we could call them UN forces, since they have a mandate) and LAAF forces.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

No indications of any air-to-air combat yet between European forces and LAAF forces.

I wouldn't be suprised if what's left of the LAAF is going to take a "Screw this, we're not suidical." attitude and defect to various nations.

[RedKing]

Lost one bird already. A USAF F-15E crashed after "equipment malfunction". Both pilots ejected, sustained minor injuries. One pilot recovered, the other is in process of being recovered.

EDIT: Cue Republicans whining already about:

A. The cost of military operations.
B. This being an "undeclared war" that Congress has not approved.
C. Invoking the old "we're not the world's policeman" / "this is the Libyans' fight, not ours" rubrics.

The sheer, balls-out hypocrisy is such that I think I may actually have an aneurysm if I watch FOX News anytime soon.

[Alexhans]

best daily show clip I've seen in a long time

[Phmcw]

best daily show clip I've seen in a long time

Truely exellent, yet in the case of Lybia there is the whole "obviously insane thing"