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[Alexhans]

I just received this:
http://www.avaaz.org/en/libya_no_fly_zone_3/?cl=982100439&v=8641

I've been pretty busy for the last couple of days and know less than I'd like. 
Now I'm at work.  What's the latest? After declaring the no-fly zone, who would enforce it? how? would that be good?

[Sheb]

Sources about the rebel comeback? If the rebels now have the upper hand in the air, it would be great if they could just drop a 500-pounder on Qaddaffi's tent. The loyalists are only holding through him, so he's like the king in their chess game.

[RedKing]

It's on.

Security forces in Bahrain have driven out pro-democracy protesters from the Pear Roundabout in the capital Manama.

Helicopters hovered overhead as troops backed by tanks stormed the site - the focal point of weeks-long anti-government protests in the tiny kingdom - early on Wednesday, an Al Jazeera correspondent said.

Hospital sources said two protesters had been killed and hundreds of others injured in the offensive. The Reuters news agency said three policemen had also been killed.

Ali Al Aswad, a member of the opposition Wefaq party, told Al Jazeera that the government used Apache helicopters to shoot at peaceful protesters.

AJE is reporting that tanks and APCs are heading toward the location of another march scheduled to begin any minute, in defiance of a government-ordered curfew. Shit's about to get uglier.

Iran is pissed, and Moqtada al-Sadr is calling for all good Shi'ites in Iraq to stage major protests today in support of the protestors in Bahrain.

[Nadaka]

2011 is looking to be a really crappy year for the whole world.

[RedKing]

And here I had such high hopes. It's the Year of the Rabbit, after all....the luckiest of animals, and my personal sign.

*sigh*

[Alexhans]

"It is in vain, sir, to extenuate the matter. Gentlemen may cry, Peace, Peace — but there is no peace. The war is actually begun! The next gale that sweeps from the north will bring to our ears the clash of resounding arms! Our brethren are already in the field! Why stand we here idle? What is it that gentlemen wish? What would they have? Is life so dear, or peace so sweet, as to be purchased at the price of chains and slavery? Forbid it, Almighty God! I know not what course others may take; but as for me, give me liberty or give me death!"

I was just reminded of this phrase.  It's powerful indeed.

[Aqizzar]

Meanwhile, Secretary of State Clinton dropped in for a surprise visit with the Egyptian transitional government (remember those guys?).  There's different ways to interpret this, but there's no way the timing couldn't have been expected on the part of the State Department.  Is her presence in the region, alongside serious consideration of a Libyan no-fly-zone a signal that the United States isn't going to tolerate Bahrain's crap (which is to say, the House of Saud's crap)?  Or is it a distraction, to get people back to thinking about the Good Revolution That Turned Out Swell For Everyone, and nevermind that the exact same fight is rearing up in two other joined-at-the-hip strategic allies?

But yeah, this is a year that will live in history forever.  Big shit going down.

[RedKing]

I'm gonna have to go all cynical and pick answer #2. Remember, Gates was in Bahrain the day before the Saudis and UAE sent in troops. There's no way that they didn't mention this to Gates beforehand. I think the prospect of a Shi'ite revolt which puts a (tentatively) Iran-friendly government in charge of our biggest US Navy port in that part of the world.....just not strategically acceptable to the Pentagon (and probably not to the WH).

Of course, I've always been of the opinion that hey, if you actually stay out of the way instead of working to suppress them, they're a lot more inclined to be favorable to you later on. We found out the hard way that a lot of "socialist"/left-wing governments that we suppressed during the Cold War actually hated the Soviets and would have preferred to deal with us. 


EDIT: Starting to see some resignations in the Bahraini government over the crackdown. 2 ministers, 8 members of the Shura, and about a dozen judges so far.


P.P.S: Interesting analysis from Foreign Policy: The Bahraini military (about 30K strong) is apparently loyal to the King and Crown Prince, who are known to be fairly liberal for Arab monarchs and who have expressed a willingness for reform in the past. The police, security forces and other assorted paramilitary and law enforcement in the country are roughly equal in size to the military (and are composed mostly of non-Bahraini Sunnis) and are loyal to the Prime Minister, who is a conservative who has dismissed calls for reform. The Saudi/UAE presence may be there not so much to guard against the protesters as to tip the balance of power in the event of a showdown betweeen the throne and the Prime Minister. This actually wouldn't be without precedent -- I seem to remember certain German states that were in the same sort of situation during the Liberal Revolutions of the 19th century.

[olemars]

Should be pointed out that the prime minister is the king's uncle and has been prime minister since the 70's, while the king has been in power since 99. He probably considers himself more of a king than the king.

[RedKing]

More updates:

Yemen -- 120 wounded in clashes between pro-government and anti-government protesters.

Syria -- Second straight day of protests, which were quickly broken up by security forces.

Libya -- Indications that the rebels are losing Adjabiya, which is the last major population centers before Benghazi. This bit from AJE's live blog caught my eye:

Timestamp:
2:00am The New York Times writes about the fall of Ajadabiya to Qaddafi's troops.

Iman Bugaighis, a professor who has become a spokeswoman for the rebels, lost her composure as she spoke about the recent death of a friend’s son, who died in battle last week. Her friend’s other son, a doctor, was still missing. Western nations, she said, had “lost any credibility.”

"I am not crying out of weakness,” she added. “I’ll stay here until the end. Libyans are brave. We will stand for what we believe in. But we will never forget the people who stood with us and the people who betrayed us."

(emphasis is mine).

This is how the US made a lot of enemies during the Cold War. And once again, we haven't learned a goddamned thing from history.

I just feel sick, because this is why I went back to school to be in the intel/diplomatic field -- to help us make better decisions and STOP FUCKING UP like we do. But we'd rather have a bunch of stiff yes-men out of GWU and Columbia, who were taught by the last generation of guys who made all the f*king mistakes in the first place. 

[PTTG??]

I've lost my patience for the US. I feel completely disenfranchised.

[Nadaka]

International law and the UN would make interference illegal. Bureaucracy is slow, and certain agents have a vested interest in non interference (Russia, China). There isn't much you can do if you are not willing to break the law to do the right thing.

Even so I am pissed off at my own government (US) for screwing this up. But it isn't unexpected.

We screwed up when we let Qadaffi stay in power after his involvement in terrorism.
We screwed up when we allowed the British to allow a terrorist to go free in exchange for Libyan business deals.
We screwed up when we let Saddam stay in power.
We screwed up when we didn't support the Iraqi rebels.
We screwed up when we went back to Iraq on false pretenses.
We screwed up when we failed to support the green shirts in Iran.
We screwed up when we supported the Egyptian regime when this new wave of protest started.
We screwed up when we failed to act when Libya turned from protest to civil war.

[Leafsnail]

We screwed up when we allowed the British to allow a terrorist to go free in exchange for Libyan business deals.

I'd say we screwed up more in putting him in jail on fairly erroneously evidence in the first place.  But I guess there was plenty of pressure to find someone to blame.

[SalmonGod]

There isn't much you can do if you are not willing to break the law

And this applies to the U.S. how?

to do the right thing.

Oh.  Right.

[Flaede]

"It is in vain, sir, to extenuate the matter. Gentlemen may cry, Peace, Peace — but there is no peace. The war is actually begun! The next gale that sweeps from the north will bring to our ears the clash of resounding arms! Our brethren are already in the field! Why stand we here idle? What is it that gentlemen wish? What would they have? Is life so dear, or peace so sweet, as to be purchased at the price of chains and slavery? Forbid it, Almighty God! I know not what course others may take; but as for me, give me liberty or give me death!"

I was just reminded of this phrase.  It's powerful indeed.

On CBC news yesterday an interviewer talked to an American/Libyan father who'd just lost his sons to the fighting. He quoted that last bit.