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[olemars]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-WNEvHPGU9w
Rebels fighting back. Good thing Libya is sparsely populated, wouldn't want them to have a rocket artillery duel in the middle of a city.

[Virex]

[...]I'm worried Saudi Arabia could flare bigtime. And unlike Libya, Obama CAN'T sit on his hands on that one.[...]
[...] while perhaps satisfying liberal public opinion, is scary as hell from a geopolitical standpoint. It could go really well, it could go really badly. And even if a democracy arises, what if this new democracy decides to use their control of oil as a political cattle prod? The Saudis, at least since the 1970's crisis, have been highly reluctant to use oil as an economic weapon. [...]

It's certainly refreshing to hear an american so honestly stating USA's interests (oil prices) as a reason for political & military involvement instead of the typical freedom/democracy bullshit speech. I respect that.

I'm not saying that freedom and democracy don't play a part, but c'mon...oil plays a big part in the strategic calculus.

It's analogous to Dune. The Emperor and other noble houses didn't support House Harkonnen because they were evil, they supported them because chaos on Arrakis meant the spice didn't flow, which paralyzed the entire Empire and brought disruptions to the lives of trillions. The concept of hydraulic despotism is pretty regularly applied to OPEC, and Saudia Arabia is the biggest member of OPEC by far (accounting for about 1/3 of all production). Hence, the major powers in the world, whose own economies and day-to-day life are dependent on a steady flow of petroleum products, have a vested interest in maintaining stability in Saudi Arabia and stable relationships as well. And sadly, it's a lot easier to maintain stable relationships with a handful of people who are in charge for decades rather than a fractious democratic government that is changing every few years and is subject to the whims of public opinion.

Have we got much of a chance then? The alternative would be to let the oil prices depend on the whims of an inherently unpredictable populace who seems to have quite a hatred for the west. Before you know it we've got another black hawk down at our hands, not to speak of the damage that would be done by closing the Suez canal.

[Kogan Loloklam]

It's certainly refreshing to hear an american so honestly stating USA's interests (oil prices) as a reason for political & military involvement instead of the typical freedom/democracy bullshit speech. I respect that.

If you believe Moore knows everything about political situations, you'll be just as surprised as Qaddafi was when shit hits the fan. Oil is the concern of the people with power. Those without power actually believe in the typical freedom/democracy bullshit. As a result, if there isn't at least a little typical freedom/democracy bullshit in any war we go into, the American government won't last long when attempting it. Mobs who pick up stones generally are made up of the people who don't give a shit about oil.

I do agree that the US soldiers would get involved if directly asked to do so by one side or the other in Saudi. It'd give us a way in without starting a war. Going in without that request wouldn't ever happen though.

That being said, I need to catch up.  I've been in a void for 2 days and don't know what the hell is going on in Libya right now but I'm wondering how much longer do they plan to wait before declaring the no fly zone and how will Gadaffi react when that happens.

Spoiler: In about 24 hours or so the UN makes a vote regarding the No-Fly zone. (click to show/hide)

Qaddafi isn't under any illusions that he will hold out without it, so he'll probably go ballistic. If he has a hidden nuke purchased when the USSR went down, count on it coming out around that time. If I were a reporter in Tripoli, or non-Libyan at all there... Heck, even if I were Libyan and pro-Qaddafi in Tripoli, I'd get the heck out of there in the next 12 hours. That guy bombs civilians that protest while saying he is going to win, imagine what he'll do to people when he learns he's gonna lose!

Spoiler: Zawiyah's Square has been taken by Qaddafi (click to show/hide)

The protesters are still all over the city. They told Sky News that they are taking it back sometime tonight (which means about now)
People on Twitter says that this has already happened.

Spoiler: Qaddafi is bombing his oil pipelines (click to show/hide)

This is keeping with the thought process that the al-Qaeda mislead youth are brainwashed by the west into rebelling so they can take his oil.

I'm looking into the other battle claims right now for the coastal fighting. I suspect that the victory ninja move is a myth. People on my twitter say that the government forces in Bin Jawwad are using family members of protesters as human shields.


Oh, AS FOR SOMALIA...
Somalia was the total opposite situation of Libya. There the government disintegrated and people went back to their tribes. In Libya, the tribes have come together to get rid of the government. You have Unity in Libya. In Somalia, you had anarchy, where the warlords ruled. I don't think there is a good example of what Libya is in history. The people rose up in mass without a leader to accomplish a common goal. Of course they got leadership structure now, but still...

Edit:
http://twitter.com/ChangeInLibya
About 13 minutes ago via twitter...

Confirmation from Zawia. Centre under control, troops pushed 2-5km out. They captured dozens of mercenaries and killed more #libya #feb17

He says he got it from a friend via satphone.

[Virex]

Oh, AS FOR SOMALIA...
Somalia was the total opposite situation of Libya. There the government disintegrated and people went back to their tribes. In Libya, the tribes have come together to get rid of the government. You have Unity in Libya. In Somalia, you had anarchy, where the warlords ruled. I don't think there is a good example of what Libya is in history. The people rose up in mass without a leader to accomplish a common goal. Of course they got leadership structure now, but still...

Try Iran, Afghanistan, pre-napoleon France or Vietnam. People's Revolutions aren't pretty and rarely fail to result in carnage.

[Kogan Loloklam]

Oh, AS FOR SOMALIA...
Somalia was the total opposite situation of Libya. There the government disintegrated and people went back to their tribes. In Libya, the tribes have come together to get rid of the government. You have Unity in Libya. In Somalia, you had anarchy, where the warlords ruled. I don't think there is a good example of what Libya is in history. The people rose up in mass without a leader to accomplish a common goal. Of course they got leadership structure now, but still...

Try Iran, Afghanistan, pre-napoleon France or Vietnam. People's Revolutions aren't pretty and rarely fail to result in carnage.

Every one of them had a leader from the start to rile up the mobs. Try again.

[ChairmanPoo]

Nope. The leaders came AFTER they started. (as usual).

[Virex]

Not only that, but as was already pointed out, this revolution now has a leader as well.

[GamerKnight]

Is this leader Carl from llamas with hats, and is he pushing people into a giant fan?

[Alexhans]

I think Gadaffi might just be closer to the whole eating people's hands because their stomach was making the rumbles...

Spoiler (click to show/hide)

That only hands could satisfy...

[olemars]

I wish newsies like BBC and Al-Jazeera would be a bit more careful about Geraldoing the rebels' movements. There was a reporter on live right now from Ras Lanuf who said that the Rebels are moving people south of town for a flanking maneuver.

[Ampersand]

Usually, when news agencies do that sort of thing, they play the footage several hours after the fact. If it was live, however, that's a bit... Well, lets just hope that in the fire of the moment they didn't have the time or opportunity to react to the broadcast.

[Sheb]

France recognizes the Transitionnal Council!

[GlyphGryph]

Which means they are no longer rebels, right?

They are now an official government with an official army waging a real war?

[Sheb]

Well, for France they are, for the rest of the world, they're still rebels.

[Kogan Loloklam]

"Protesters! Get it right.

Zawiyah's Square is in "protester" hands still.

Without knowing what is going on there at all, my best guess is EpicLibyaMan is there, and Chuck Norris refuses to work for Qaddafi.