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[Sowelu]

What are conditions like for the unemployed in Saudi Arabia?  If social services were already pretty decent, then oh well.  If they were bad but they bribe them with better ones, still not so bad.  If life sucks for the unemployed and seems like it will keep sucking, things could go to hell real fast, but I really don't think that's what conditions are like over there right now.

[Bouchart]

The past few weeks there the government announced a "stimulus plan" to ease some of the burden there, but Saudi Arabia is known for major income inequality.

It's also worth noting that there are rumors that Iran is trying to stir up dissent there.  General Sunni vs Shi'a stuff.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

I think that's a pretty suicidal move on Iran's part, given the current protests of their own populace. It is my prediction that if either Iran or Saudi Arabia goes into open rebellion, the other will quickly follow.

[Bouchart]

They're just rumors but I guess anything's possible there.  Ahmadinejad made some speech a couple of weeks ago denouncing Khadaffi's violence against his own people and at the same time he confiscated satellite dishes from private residences.

Most of these Middle Eastern countries really don't like each other so they are quick to blame one another for this and that.

[RedKing]

I'm worried Saudi Arabia could flare bigtime. And unlike Libya, Obama CAN'T sit on his hands on that one. But he also has to be as delicate as possible in whatever he does. You're not just talking about the single largest oil producer in the world, but also the holiest sites in Islam. I don't think it's necessarily a gamebreaker to have US troops in Saudi Arabia, if they're invited by the House of Saud. Especially since...y'know, we were there for 15 years or so.

If it's a situation where the Saudis are cracking down on what is perceived to be pro-democracy protestors, and we intervene on behalf of the Saudis....that really doesn't play well to global public opinion. But allowing the Saudi monarchy to fall and be replaced by a big , while perhaps satisfying liberal public opinion, is scary as hell from a geopolitical standpoint. It could go really well, it could go really badly. And even if a democracy arises, what if this new democracy decides to use their control of oil as a political cattle prod? The Saudis, at least since the 1970's crisis, have been highly reluctant to use oil as an economic weapon. Idealistic young Saudis might not care--if, for instance, they wanted to force the West to really doing something about the Palestinian situation. It's a whole big ball of wax that is very messy and that nobody in charge wants to have to deal with. But I'm guessing we're going to have to deal with it sooner rather than later.

Not a lot of updates this morning. Zawiya looks to be under nominal government control, although by their own admission, "rats" and "saoteurs" still hold pockets of what's left of the city. The info yesterday about a breakthrough near Bin Jawad looks to have been bogus. Things are still bogged down around Bin Jawad.

A no-fly zone is looking more and more likely. The exiled Crown Prince of Libya (whose father was deposed by Qaddafi's coup) has called for a no-fly zone, as have representatives of the Benghazi rebels, and some members of the Arab League. The hope is that with support growing for a no-fly zone, even among other Arab leaders, that China and Russia will be in a tought spot to use their vetos. I think China is liable to abstain rather than damage the relations they've been trying to establish throughout Africa. Qaddafi has already stated that Libya will fight back against any no-fly zone, which means it would turn into more or less an open war against the Libyan Airforce and AA sites, if they choose to oppose it.

Interestingly, the prospect of a military operation is putting Labour in Britain in the position of feebly trying to claim "the Libyan rebels don't want us involved", despite open statements by the NLC to the contrary -- because they want to oppose Cameron but are left looking like they want to sacrifice the anti-Qaddafi fighters for the sake of opposing Cameron just because they're the opposition. I have to say, the more I see of David Cameron, the more I'm impressed. Not saying that I'd want him as a leader, mind you--just saying that the dude knows how to Play The Game. Maybe he can teach Obama a few things.

[olemars]

Az-zawiyah refinery has shut down operations. Hopefully it will have to stay shut down for a while. Without it Gaddafi will have no domestic fuel supplies under his control.

Three libyan government jets took off on mysterious missions a few hours ago. One has landed in Cairo, carrying the libyan official in charge of supplies and logistics. Maybe they're out begging. The other two had flight plans for Vienna and athens but appeared to have changed plans a couple times already.

At Ras Lanuf - Bin Jawad, the rebels may have just pulled off some sort of ninja pincer maneuver. There's been fighting around Ras Lanuf all day, but rebel units have suddenly reported to have entered and taken Bin Jawad, 50km away. Any Gaddafist units in between willl be completely cut off.

[olemars]

I'm not really seeing the point of a no-fly-zone. The planes have barely managed to hit anything. The only impact they're having is psychological, the untrained volunteers among the rebels panic and shoot blindly every time a plane passes overhead. Most of the damage is caused by tanks and artillery.

I think it would be better to impound all libyan aircraft leaving the country, cutting off some of his communication lines with friendlies. Couldn't they, with a little imagination, be considered Gaddafi assets under the UN resolution and legally seized?

[RedKing]

I'm not really seeing the point of a no-fly-zone. The planes have barely managed to hit anything. The only impact they're having is psychological, the untrained volunteers among the rebels panic and shoot blindly every time a plane passes overhead. Most of the damage is caused by tanks and artillery.

Disagree. From all the accounts I've seen of the fighting on the Bin Jawad-Ra's Lanuf front, the rebels are kicking ass on the ground, it's the airstrikes that throw them into retreat. Eliminate those, and they can sustain an offensive. It would also secure the territory they've already gotten (Brega, Benghazi and Adjabiya have all come under airstrikes in the past couple of days).

The real problem is that it's trending towards mostly helicopters in the east, which are going to be trickier to interdict. Unless we just go ahead and blow up as many of them on the ground as we can.

[olemars]

AJE reporter confirms that some Gaddafist troops were cut off in al-Sidra between Ras Lanuf and Bin Jawad.

[Puzzlemaker]

If this drags on too long we may have another Somalia on our hands. 

[Earthquake Damage]

If this drags on too long we may have another Somalia on our hands.

?

I'm pretty sure a few weeks of civil war is a far cry from several years without a government.

Harumph.  Kids these days, expecting nothing to last longer than their attention span. 

[Duke 2.0]

 I think that region is too valuable to have no leadership whatsoever for too long. Somebody will rise to power to claim the oil fields.

[Nadaka]

Gadaffi troops have struck and blown up an oil pipeline. Doesn't sound like a good idea if he is planning on retaking the country and its wealth since the rebels are not currently capable of using the oil production facilities.

[Alexhans]

[...]I'm worried Saudi Arabia could flare bigtime. And unlike Libya, Obama CAN'T sit on his hands on that one.[...]
[...] while perhaps satisfying liberal public opinion, is scary as hell from a geopolitical standpoint. It could go really well, it could go really badly. And even if a democracy arises, what if this new democracy decides to use their control of oil as a political cattle prod? The Saudis, at least since the 1970's crisis, have been highly reluctant to use oil as an economic weapon. [...]

It's certainly refreshing to hear an american so honestly stating USA's interests (oil prices) as a reason for political & military involvement instead of the typical freedom/democracy bullshit speech. I respect that.

That being said, I need to catch up.  I've been in a void for 2 days and don't know what the hell is going on in Libya right now but I'm wondering how much longer do they plan to wait before declaring the no fly zone and how will Gadaffi react when that happens.

[RedKing]

[...]I'm worried Saudi Arabia could flare bigtime. And unlike Libya, Obama CAN'T sit on his hands on that one.[...]
[...] while perhaps satisfying liberal public opinion, is scary as hell from a geopolitical standpoint. It could go really well, it could go really badly. And even if a democracy arises, what if this new democracy decides to use their control of oil as a political cattle prod? The Saudis, at least since the 1970's crisis, have been highly reluctant to use oil as an economic weapon. [...]

It's certainly refreshing to hear an american so honestly stating USA's interests (oil prices) as a reason for political & military involvement instead of the typical freedom/democracy bullshit speech. I respect that.

I'm not saying that freedom and democracy don't play a part, but c'mon...oil plays a big part in the strategic calculus.

It's analogous to Dune. The Emperor and other noble houses didn't support House Harkonnen because they were evil, they supported them because chaos on Arrakis meant the spice didn't flow, which paralyzed the entire Empire and brought disruptions to the lives of trillions. The concept of hydraulic despotism is pretty regularly applied to OPEC, and Saudia Arabia is the biggest member of OPEC by far (accounting for about 1/3 of all production). Hence, the major powers in the world, whose own economies and day-to-day life are dependent on a steady flow of petroleum products, have a vested interest in maintaining stability in Saudi Arabia and stable relationships as well. And sadly, it's a lot easier to maintain stable relationships with a handful of people who are in charge for decades rather than a fractious democratic government that is changing every few years and is subject to the whims of public opinion.