Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[olemars]

I think China is as big an obstacle in the UNSC as Russia at the moment. Doesn't help that they're scared shitless over anything hinting that protests might be inspiring chinese activists. There's been serious crackdown the last couple of weeks.

[Bouchart]

China is in a bit of a pickle.  They need cheap oil, but they don't want to catch this political contagion.  The West needs cheap oil, but is broke and doesn't want to commit anything.

I doubt anyone will do anything meaningful unless Saudi Arabia or Iran are in danger.

[Phmcw]

And Saudi Arabia is in danger, but more armed.
Basically the cable learn us that the royal family are corrupt and do everything they forbid.
Yeah those cable who are everywhere and whose (suspected) leaker is being tortured by the US (and that's pretty much a seal of truth for those documents). And the poeple are getting less afraid. And they have nothing to loose, are deeply religious and are being mesmerized by the success of the other revolution. Did someone point out that they have an excellent news channel with Al Jazeera?

[olemars]

These revolutions should really learn to stand in line. The world isn't capable of paying attention to more than one at a time.

[Jopax]

I think it's better if they happen all at once, like a big wave, sure you won't catch them all, but with all the chaos the goverments really won't be able to do much either, for better or worse

[Kogan Loloklam]

So Saudi is going up in smoke too? Not very surprising. I imagine Bahrain is a good example of the Saudi mindset though, since Saudis go to Bahrain to sin (Think middle east Las Vegas.)

[Bouchart]

There's a "day of rage" scheduled for Friday in SA. My understanding is that the protesters are calling for political reforms, not so much the wholesale overthrow of the government.

Something to keep in mind about Saudi Arabia is that the king is 86 years old and somewhat ill.  The next year or two is going to be a huge transitional period for the kingdom, regardless.

Saudi Arabia conveniently borders Iraq and there are some people that speculate (myself included) that the US Army might commandeer the oil fields there in case the country falls into complete anarchy.

[Kogan Loloklam]

The US army won't enter Saudi Arabia. It'd really spark WW3. No question about it.

Zawiyah still is Protester controlled, apparently.

Spoiler: From an active warzone. Graphic. (click to show/hide)

Video]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fkaAXDTLhsw&feature=player_embedded]Video
It starts at the front of the battle. Looks like it is at a bridge.
1:50 - Shoot and scoot.
2:15 - Love the Protester Ambulances.
3:50 - Even kids are being shot.
4:20 - The Protesters say they control the whole city as of two days ago, Despite Qaddafi's claims.
9:00 - The ambulance is fired on.
And it ends with the city still under Protester control. This was probably shortly before the next offensive that began at 10am on the 8th.

In 3 hours and 40 minutes, thereabouts, the sun rises again over the city. It appears as of 7 hours ago the city was Protester held. It appears as of 10 am there was a new assault, and it lasted at least to 8 PM. The Internet and phones are cut off, though apparently some news is still coming out Via Sky News.


UN Makes it's decision in 48 hours. I don't think this petition will affect it at all:
http://www.avaaz.org/en/libya_no_fly_zone_1/

[lemon10]

The US army won't enter Saudi Arabia. It'd really spark WW3. No question about it.

No, it wouldn't. At all.
Yeah, people would be pissed at us, but i don't think that russia/china/europe would attack us for it (and nothing short of that would even get close to a world war in my opinion). That said, we are also their ally, and the united states is far to pragmatic to do something like that.

UN Makes it's decision in 48 hours. I don't think this petition will affect it at all:
http://www.avaaz.org/en/libya_no_fly_zone_1/

The UN won't intervene, since i am fairly sure that it will be vetoed by russia, who care little about american petitions.

[Bouchart]

If you have Saudi Arabia in disarray and the oil fields are shut down, everyone's gonna be wanting us to run them rather than risk $300 oil.  The same can be said for Iran.

Whether you like it or not the world needs cheap oil and if the Europeans or Chinese were capable of running the fields in case they get shut down, they would.

[Kogan Loloklam]

The US army won't enter Saudi Arabia. It'd really spark WW3. No question about it.

No, it wouldn't. At all.
Yeah, people would be pissed at us, but i don't think that russia/china/europe would attack us for it (and nothing short of that would even get close to a world war in my opinion). That said, we are also their ally, and the united states is far to pragmatic to do something like that.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakistan_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Pakistan
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Most_holy_place#Islam
http://www.religionfacts.com/islam/places/medina.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Qaeda#Gulf_War_and_the_start_of_U.S._enmity

Silly to think that a region that universally holds us up to be imperialist dogs wouldn't erupt in a fury of violence and bloodshed if we started annexing territory in the land that holds the most holy of sites. Just as silly would be to assume that the Middle East going up against the US in a fairly cohesive block wouldn't result in WW3, reguardless of what China, Russia, or whatever you think the world military superpowers are. The only thing I could think of that would be as stupid is if German Peacekeeprs deployed to Israel in defense of the Palestinians.

UN Makes it's decision in 48 hours. I don't think this petition will affect it at all:
http://www.avaaz.org/en/libya_no_fly_zone_1/

The UN won't intervene, since i am fairly sure that it will be vetoed by russia, who care little about american petitions.

The Petition is International, but otherwise your statement about petitions matched mine. Still, since a few of the Libyan nationals who don't even live in Libya are asking me to repost it to show solidarity with Libya, I figure I'd humor them. It seems to make them feel better, perhaps it'll make others feel better too. Governments don't listen to petitions, they listen to mobs. It's because pieces of paper are unlikely to pick up rocks and kill everyone in them.

If you have Saudi Arabia in disarray and the oil fields are shut down, everyone's gonna be wanting us to run them rather than risk $300 oil.  The same can be said for Iran.

Whether you like it or not the world needs cheap oil and if the Europeans or Chinese were capable of running the fields in case they get shut down, they would.

The US has other sources of oil than Saudi Arabia. I'd be more scared of Canada issues than Saudi issues. Don't get me wrong, Saudi is in the top 5, but even Libya isn't totally shut down, and we can live with a little disruption, especially if it requires invading another country to keep them under control. Even bush at his most patriotic couldn't invade because of Oil, he required an excuse first. The whole WMD lie, remember?

[Puzzlemaker]

Fuck yeah Zawiyah!  Go guys go!

Also:  Friday should be very, very interesting.  I wonder if the entire middle east is going to explode?

Okay, let me rephrase that.  Is the entire middle east going to explode MORE!?

[Bouchart]

Well about 2/3 of Saudi Arabia is under the age of 30 and unemployment among youth there can run as high as 40%, so any youth protest there should be taken seriously.

However, the Kingdom does have a lot of cash and could effectively bribe the protesters for a time.  But as I said before the king there is very old so it would only be a temporary reprieve.

If you put a gun to my head and asked me to make a prediction, though, I'd say Friday there will be relatively nonviolent.

[Puzzlemaker]

Well about 2/3 of Saudi Arabia is under the age of 30 and unemployment among youth there can run as high as 40%, so any youth protest there should be taken seriously.

However, the Kingdom does have a lot of cash and could effectively bribe the protesters for a time.  But as I said before the king there is very old so it would only be a temporary reprieve.

If you put a gun to my head and asked me to make a prediction, though, I'd say Friday there will be relatively nonviolent.

It depends on how large it becomes, although I suppose the protests have so far been very nonviolent until people started shooting at them.

[Bouchart]

If I had to guess I'd say that every government in the world has been putting all sorts of pressure on the Kingdom there to keep things peaceful for as long as possible.