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[mnjiman]

It's a third world country in the middle of the most volatile geopolitical clusterfuck since early twentieth century Europe, surrounded by enemies on all sides, with countless violent extremist organizations funded by the Saudi government lurking all around, with exactly nothing of value to the outside world but the Suez canal, which could easily be taken from it, and it just underwent a military coup. How on earth can anyone get "this will end well" out of that?

It will be better then what it was before. That is the point.

[Africa]

I understand the point of dissolving the parliament and why it would be good, but the sentence "army dissolves parliament and suspends constitution" (actually even the last part more so) just send shivers down my spine.

Egypt has been a dictatorship.  I imagine their constitution supports the recently-overthrown power structure rather than the universal human rights and checks & balances and such that you're probably thinking of.  In other words, it's probably a good move.  Within a few months of the upcoming election cycle, they'll probably ratify a new constitution.

Again I see the point. But does the idea of the army taking charge of these things not bode ill to anybody else?

[ChairmanPoo]

yeah, it does. To me at least. I dont think that their passivity during the riots shows anything more than the utter bankrupcy of Mubarak's regime, rather than any commitment to democracy as we understand it.

I think they will hold elections, though. It's the fad, lately. Army does a coup, but instead of installing a junta, they declare their support for candidate X, and then legitimize him through an election (which depending on the circumstances can range from almost legit to an obvious joke).

[DJ]

The generals may have been scheming, but I think the rank and file were genuinely on the side of protesters. If the military tries to turn on the people, it'll face a massive wave of desertions and heavy loss of morale.

Anyway, why would the only possible motivation for general be seizing power? Maybe they just saw that overthrow of Mubarak was inevitable, so they did what  they did to keep their cushy jobs after the regime change. They're basically national heroes now, any democratic government that tried to mess with them would quickly lose approval.

[ChairmanPoo]

Yeah, I agree, that's a factor to have in mind too. I dont think it too far fetched that they'll nudge the election one way or the other, though.

[DJ]

They don't really need a government on their side, they just need a weak government. That is easily achieved by letting people elect representatives from all over the political spectrum.

[ChairmanPoo]

Good point

[scriver]

They don't really need a government on their side, they just need a weak government. That is easily achieved by letting people elect representatives from all over the political spectrum.

I was going to mention this as well. "The army" doesn't need to put another dictator in place to control the government, they're pretty capable of doing so from the outside, just by virtue of influence. Provided they still have popular support, and I doubt there's any shortage of this moment.

On the other hand, people seem to be rather unyielding in making sure the army isn't able to take over as well. Last I heard, they're still refusing to agree with some of the army's "arrangements" until things are done the way the activists want it to.

[DJ]

Weak democratic government is probably even better than military installed dictator. Dictators tend to turn on the people that install them, while a squabbling government can't really do anything so there's nothing to fear from it.

[Leafsnail]

It's a third world country in the middle of the most volatile geopolitical clusterfuck since early twentieth century Europe, surrounded by enemies on all sides, with countless violent extremist organizations funded by the Saudi government lurking all around, with exactly nothing of value to the outside world but the Suez canal, which could easily be taken from it, and it just underwent a military coup. How on earth can anyone get "this will end well" out of that?

Yeah, if you massively exaggerate everything it makes your point far more valid.

[ChairmanPoo]

That's what the military did in Turkey for decades, right?

[Virex]

It's a third world country in the middle of the most volatile geopolitical clusterfuck since early twentieth century Europe, surrounded by enemies on all sides, with countless violent extremist organizations funded by the Saudi government lurking all around, with exactly nothing of value to the outside world but the Suez canal, which could easily be taken from it, and it just underwent a military coup. How on earth can anyone get "this will end well" out of that?

Yeah, if you massively exaggerate everything it makes your point far more valid.

I agree that calling this a military coup may have been a slight exaggeration...

Anyway, why would the only possible motivation for general be seizing power?

You're talking about people who for 30 years had control over one of the best armies in the world, nearly unlimited resources for suppression of opponents and access to all kinds of luxuries because of that. They just got rid of the guy who got them in their current positions. I think assuming power to be an important motivating factor is the least one can do in this case.

[DJ]

They can still roll in dough if Egypt gets a deadlocked government, which is the likeliest outcome of truly democratic elections. And this way they get to be loved by everyone, rather than fear mutiny.

[Sowelu]

Weak democratic government is probably even better than military installed dictator. Dictators tend to turn on the people that install them, while a squabbling government can't really do anything so there's nothing to fear from it.

Democracy at its finest--literally.  When a country collapses and installs a new democratic system, you get to watch them create the best system that they think they can, and then stuff enough bureaucracy and squabbling into it that nothing ever changes.  Which is, in fact...beautiful and the way it should be.

[DJ]

Hehe, you should see Bosnia. We had elections last October, and the major parties are still nowhere near forming a government.