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[Bouchart]

My understanding is that Jordan is fairly moderate for a middle eastern nation.  I'd be surprised to see mass protests there like there is in Egypt.

[ChairmanPoo]

And you think everyone in the north is going to agree just like that?

Maybe, maybe not, but considering that the country has been in a 50 years old civil war, they have a better chance than they used to.

[alway]

It could go either way; it depends on whether the north or south gets the major oil producing region in negotiations. Both sides really want it and so long as they have it will be perfectly happy.

[thvaz]

I just hope this trend don't catch here on the south of sahara, near where I am. Dictatorship of 30 years here too, though here the people are semi-savage at best and love their dictator.

[DJ]

AFAIK Jordan is a pretty nice country to live in, given it's neighbourhood. I doubt it's people feel they need to revolt.

[Eagleon]

Anyone else get the suspicion that Mubarak has already left (or is in the process of leaving) the country for greener pastures? I mean, if I had the money, and an entire country was out for my blood, that's exactly what I'd do - make it seem like I was still there for as long as possible, and run like hell into hiding. Considering there's travel to other regions available, it doesn't even seem like it would be that difficult, especially with a few well-placed bribes and a decent video production team to make it seem like he was still around.

[Bouchart]

Where would he go, exactly?  Some Carribean island, I'd guess.

[Leafsnail]

Tunisia and Egypt don't produce a lot of oil.

Oil prices have been up steadily the past couple of months, so to a degree the markets expect oil production to fall.

Or it could be that they anticipate the riots spreading to oil producing countries.

Interesting how some years have a lot of them.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolutions_of_1848

Great Britain, the Netherlands, the Russian Empire (including Congress Poland), and the Ottoman Empire were the only major European states to go without a national revolution over this period.

[olemars]

Yemen is certainly ripe. Then again, the government is barely hanging on there as it is, it would hardly require a popular revolt. It's so weak they had to ask Saudi Arabia to quell a civil war for them near the northern borders.

I've read a bunch of wikileaks cables on yemen and Saleh seems like a cool old tyrant so it would be sorta sad to see him go. He even tried to pull a Dr Evil joke on an american diplomat, as they were negotiating a buyback deal on man-portable surface to air missiles.

Spoiler: FROM WIKILEAKS CABLE, DO NOT READ IF MONITORED BY THOUGHT POLICE (click to show/hide)

I recommend reading the whole thing, it's quite interesting.
http://cablesearch.org/cable/view.php?id=04SANAA2346

"Rest assured," SALEH continued, "Yemen will not
have such weapons anymore, but everything has a price. You
will have to pay...one million dollars for each STRELA!"
(Note: After an awkward silence, SALEH laughed, indicated he
was exaggerating, and promised the price would come down. In
fear some uncertainty remained, the Palace translator turned
to A/S saying, "I feel it is my duty to make sure you
understand this is a joke." End Note.) "How much are you
willing to pay?" pressed the President. A/S responded that
that the price for each MANPAD was fixed and not negotiable.
"Fixed, but well above what we believe to be the market
price."

[Bouchart]

Or it could be that they anticipate the riots spreading to oil producing countries.

That's what I meant, but I didn't explain myself clearly.

[alway]

Where would he go, exactly?  Some Carribean island, I'd guess.

London likely. Same place as the rest of his family is already rumored to be. His son owns property there, with unconfirmed rumors of a sighting of the family.

As for Mubarak, if he doesn't leave within the next 24 hours, he will almost certainly be going down with the dictatorial ship. From what people are describing him as, 'stubborn' comes up as his #1 trait. And with state TV still going off on odd attempts to reassure everyone that things are fine aside from a few looters, I would expect the latter of the two.

[Bouchart]

Anyone seen Baghdad Bob over there?

[alway]

Heh, yeah, he did worse than Mubarak's speech, and that's really saying something.

[de5me7]

i suspect theres alot going on behind the curtains, theres quite abit at stake internationally.

If Egypt does go down, its a big Arab nation, it will set a president that the smaller more secular Tunisa cannot. Perhaps Mubarak is staying because he may have more enemies than his own people should he leave, or perhaps not, some states such as Saudi probs wont fall (is anything a sure bet anymore).

The Suez cannal

And acording to Ali J the US have 'close relations' with the Egyptian military. Already been mentioned in this thread abit, perhaps its a factor in the militaries lack of activity.

I certainly wouldnt treat it as a given that the Muslim Brotherhood will come out on or near the top from this. The revolution started out as relativly middle class and educated, demanding democracy. The Brotherhood would have to work hard to convince many Egyptians that they represent this ideal. The other drivers, such as unemployment, lack of international prestige etc, they might do better on, at least in terms of blag.

[ChairmanPoo]

you mean a precedent, right?