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Author Topic: Egypt and the world and Libya - Now without Ukraine!  (Read 373327 times)

thobal

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Re: Egypt and the world
« Reply #630 on: February 10, 2011, 05:56:37 pm »

Here's what's going to happen. The military has lulled the president into a false sense of security, else he'd have no reason to stay. This new guy is just part of the plan.They are going to be thrown to the wolves. There will be short stint of mob rule and much of the government is going to be purged(either execution, prison, or exile). The reigns of terror will be replaced by an impotent civilian government and the military leadership will survive unscathed. That was mostly speculation, the rest isnt.

I don't know what the Israelis are worried about Egypt for, Israel is the last thing the Egyptian military is worried about right now.

I can sum up Egypt's problem with one word: Water

The reason these protests are happening now has very little to do with recent government actions and everything to do with rising food prices and the diminishing flow of water in the Nile River. Countries upstream of Egypt are using more and more water and Egypt has been forced to import more and more food.

There is no way out short of massive improvements in the water infrastructure. There is no other way out besides war. Egypt is going to drive south sometime in the next ten to fifteen years, tops. There is nothing stopping them. There are huge populations competing for the same limited resources and millions are going to starve no matter who wins.

Gear up boys and girls, the world is going to war not for oil or pride or comfort, but for thirst.
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olemars

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Re: Egypt and the world
« Reply #631 on: February 10, 2011, 06:10:41 pm »

Better start manufacturing those stillsuits then.

« Last Edit: February 10, 2011, 06:13:18 pm by olemars »
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Bouchart

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Re: Egypt and the world
« Reply #632 on: February 10, 2011, 07:07:41 pm »

I can sum up Egypt's problem with one word: Water

I disagree.  The problem is inflation.  Loose monetary policy from the US, UK, and ECB is driving speculators into equities and more importantly, commodities, driving up the price of food in regions of the world where 50% of one's income might be spent on food.
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Leafsnail

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Re: Egypt and the world
« Reply #633 on: February 10, 2011, 07:10:46 pm »

I disagree.  I think the problem is a ridiculously corrupt dictator who has been in power for 30 years without elections, and who frequently uses torture on his opponents.  Add the "Tunisian factor" spark and you're set to go.
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olemars

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Re: Egypt and the world
« Reply #634 on: February 10, 2011, 07:22:28 pm »

A few thousand protesters have surrounded the state tv building and are setting up camp. Those employees still inside will have to sleep in their offices tonight.
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PTTG??

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Re: Egypt and the world
« Reply #635 on: February 10, 2011, 07:37:49 pm »

I think that ultimately the issue is a matrix of problems, largely the sudden economic downturn causing an artificial low in living expenses to jump to an artificial high, combined with a renewed crackdown in the wake of the earlier revolutions. Both of these have a combination of causes. The butterfly effect goes both ways; even the smallest cause can have numerous effects, and everything that happens is caused by a geometrically large history.

However, the most significant causes of Egypt's strife are the current situation and the nation's recent history. Egypt's leadership has been just as bad for the last thirty years. Perhaps the first decade was better if only from novelty, but there has been very little change in how bad the country has been for some time. This is ultimately the fault of the US, because it has propped up M. since he first came into power. Perhaps we asked him to be more humanitarian, yes, and it is very difficult to determine exactly what would have happened had he not had US backing. It is possible that he would have ruled for fifteen far worse years, or perhaps he would have been overthrown by a worse leader. Ultimately, however, Egypt would have stood or fallen on it's own, for better or worse for her people.

The more recent troubles that pushed the country over the edge are fundamentally economic and are largely the fault of the US. While the small time fraudsters may be centered in the heart of Africa, the big time thieves live in the US, and have friends in the government. It is a result of (and here you discover that my spell check only works in English) lazise-faire bank regulations that allowed the economic system to get into the state it did, and when it imploded, as it obviously would, the shock waves caused a great deal of the economic damage we see today.

Of course, there comes the hovering specter of climate change which may indeed be related to decreasing water supplies. I won't go into detail in this, but I would like to say that the US is now thankfully not the most significant contributor to this; we are now second to China.

Looking back over this, I'd like to remind any Egyptian readers that support for Dictators, loose banking regulation, and generous pollution controls are all Republican issues, and I am a Liberal. Just putting that out there. I say that and not "Democrat" because they are more centrist than I am, assuming "centrist" means "is carrying Israel's love child".
« Last Edit: February 11, 2011, 11:06:08 am by PTTG?? »
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Bohandas

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Re: Egypt and the world
« Reply #636 on: February 10, 2011, 08:05:55 pm »

I disagree.  I think the problem is a ridiculously corrupt dictator who has been in power for 30 years without elections,

Really? I had been under the impression that he had been reelected a few times on the "Vote for me or else!" platform
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lemon10

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Re: Egypt and the world
« Reply #637 on: February 10, 2011, 08:32:19 pm »

I disagree.  I think the problem is a ridiculously corrupt dictator who has been in power for 30 years without elections,

Really? I had been under the impression that he had been reelected a few times on the "Vote for me or else!" platform
No, he was reelected on the "yeah i got 90% of the vote" platform (ballotbox stuffing).
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Leafsnail

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Re: Egypt and the world
« Reply #638 on: February 10, 2011, 08:33:26 pm »

Yeah.  I guess I should've made it clear that technically they did have elections, in much the same way that Zimbabwe does.
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Tilla

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Re: Egypt and the world
« Reply #639 on: February 10, 2011, 09:12:35 pm »

Elections wherein it was literally impossible to run if you weren't in the NDP: the fairest kind!

Saddam Hussein also claimed 98 percent of the 'vote'
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olemars

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Re: Egypt and the world
« Reply #640 on: February 11, 2011, 06:26:19 am »

I read an account of how one of the "elections" of Mubarak worked in the 80's or 90's. The ballot was a piece of paper with a portrait of Mubarak, and two large circles. One for yes and one for no. A mukhabarat policeman with a submachinegun was at the ballot box to help you ensure the ballot was filled out correctly. Noone kept track of who voted and such, so it was trivial to "vote" multiple times. The norwegian reporter who wrote the article voted 3 times just to see if he could.
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Eugenitor

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Re: Egypt and the world
« Reply #641 on: February 11, 2011, 11:04:05 am »

Mubarak just left, and the army took over. Not sure what Silly-man's role is.
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Ampersand

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Re: Egypt and the world
« Reply #642 on: February 11, 2011, 11:07:56 am »

The crowd is Jubilant. This is so obviously the one step that was needed for things to start calming down. What will be interesting to watch is, now that the Army's governing council is in charge, what happens in other states in the middle east and North Africa.
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Aqizzar

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Re: Egypt and the world
« Reply #643 on: February 11, 2011, 11:12:37 am »

NBC's coverage, from the ground.  Yeah, they're screaming their heads off down there.  Lo and behold, a Big Angry Mob was all it took to run a president out of his house.
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Eugenitor

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Re: Egypt and the world
« Reply #644 on: February 11, 2011, 11:13:59 am »

They're happy for now, but I don't think this is quite over yet. Suleiman is an asshole.

I suspect that Mubarak might not have exactly resigned, seeing as how he didn't make the statement himself.
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