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Author Topic: Egypt and the world and Libya - Now without Ukraine!  (Read 364315 times)

Owlbread

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #4410 on: August 29, 2013, 05:48:16 pm »

That was a really important vote. Both Ed Milliband and David Cameron are left standing glaikit, totally defeated. The UK will not and cannot go to war now, we're safe. It's quite a beautiful thing seeing the war mongers so lost.

I've heard David Cameron stood up after both motions were defeated and said "OK I get it." and sat back down.

But in case people haven't picked this up from what MonkeyHead and I have said yet:

UK ISN'T GOING TO WAR! THIS IS AN AMERICAN/FRENCH SHOW FROM NOW ON.
« Last Edit: August 29, 2013, 05:54:38 pm by Owlbread »
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Dutchling

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #4411 on: August 29, 2013, 05:58:29 pm »

Nice. We just need to decide whether we will politically support a US attack. Considering politicians don't like anything better than licking America's arse, we probably will.
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Nadaka

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #4412 on: August 29, 2013, 06:07:45 pm »

Eh. We waited far to long to get even a slim chance of a good result out of military intervention. Its to late to do the right thing.
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10ebbor10

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #4413 on: August 29, 2013, 06:10:11 pm »

I'm not sure there was a right thing. Just a large list of progressively worse options.
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Owlbread

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #4414 on: August 29, 2013, 06:10:52 pm »

I think British people across the country should be thankful of the existence of regional nationalists. The Liberal Democrats, Conservatives and Labour were all in favour of war. Even with the Tory and Lib Dem rebels (around 40, which is marvellous) and the Labour abstentions, the motion would have been carried if the SNP and just a single Plaid Cymru MP had voted for it. In some ways, we have saved Britain.
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Dutchling

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #4415 on: August 29, 2013, 06:20:30 pm »

Saved? Isn't that a bit much?
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Owlbread

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #4416 on: August 29, 2013, 06:22:23 pm »

Saved? Isn't that a bit much?

Look, this is probably the only time we can even come close to being able to say something like this. Let us have our moment.
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palsch

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #4417 on: August 30, 2013, 03:04:03 pm »

US Assessment of the Syrian government's use of chemical weapons.

Looks like this is the core document justifying American action. The core of the summary;
Quote
A preliminary U.S. government assessment determined that 1,429 people were killed in the chemical weapons attack, including at least 426 children, though this assessment will certainly evolve as we obtain more information. We assess with high confidence that the Syrian government carried out the chemical weapons attack against opposition elements in the Damascus suburbs on August 21. We assess that the scenario in which the opposition executed the attack on August 21 is highly unlikely. The body of information used to make this assessment includes intelligence pertaining to the regime’s preparations for this attack and its means of delivery, multiple streams of intelligence about the attack itself and its effect, our post-attack observations, and the differences between the capabilities of the regime and the opposition. Our high confidence assessment is the strongest position that the U.S. Intelligence Community can take short of confirmation. We will continue to seek additional information to close gaps in our understanding of what took place.
One thing about this document; it simply summarises the current state of American intelligence. This is normal, even particularly transparent compared to normal practice. You don't give away anything more than you need to where intelligence gathering is concerned. However, given the current climate where leaks and declassified documents are the norm, I wouldn't be surprised if there weren't cries for the US to reveal the intelligence documents themselves. Such releases wouldn't prove much - if you don't trust US intelligence to tell the truth about what they know you probably don't trust them not to falsify the intelligence sources themselves - but I'm expecting such calls from the usual sources.

As far as the UK vote goes, the fact that it ruled out any military action at all strikes me as overkill. While blocking immediate military action makes sense, the vote that passed said that no matter how compelling the evidence becomes - how strong the humanitarian concern - the UK won't be involving itself in the response. While I do think the current vote represents the views of the British people, I'm not sure they will represent it in a few weeks/months time. The actual resolution - calling for a "strong humanitarian response" and leaving open military action while requiring a further Parliamentary vote to sanction such action - seems pretty damned sensible to me. Hell, I'd argue that particular resolution is conservative when it comes to military action, essentially only authorising any military action endorsed by the UN SC (something that won't happen).
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MonkeyHead

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #4418 on: August 30, 2013, 03:10:59 pm »

Quote
While I do think the current vote represents the views of the British people, I'm not sure they will represent it in a few weeks/months time.

Sorry, I disagree. In a few weeks time, when the US has attacked Syrian chemical weapons related installations using stand off weapons and nothing has changed, and there is pressure to go further, the UK people will be glad of the no involvement policy.
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Duuvian

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #4419 on: August 30, 2013, 11:29:43 pm »

Sad to see such an endorsement of the use of chemical weaponry from people in power.
« Last Edit: August 31, 2013, 03:54:48 am by Duuvian »
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misko27

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #4420 on: August 31, 2013, 12:20:13 am »

I'm not sure there was a right thing. Just a large list of progressively worse options.
From the US movie Argo:
Quote
Tony Mendez:There are only bad options, it's about finding the best one.
Government Official: You don't have a better bad idea than this?
Jack O'Donnell: This is the best bad idea we have, sir. By far.

I think British people across the country should be thankful of the existence of regional nationalists. The Liberal Democrats, Conservatives and Labour were all in favour of war. Even with the Tory and Lib Dem rebels (around 40, which is marvelous) and the Labour abstentions, the motion would have been carried if the SNP and just a single Plaid Cymru MP had voted for it. In some ways, we have saved Britain.
Meanwhile France of all nations is our biggest backer. Things have sorta combined in such a way that Britain, a country that supports us through every military engagement, has been replaced by a country second only to Canada in hate from the right. And from the Socialists no less. I bet Pundits are re-writing their shtick right now.

As far as the UK vote goes, the fact that it ruled out any military action at all strikes me as overkill. While blocking immediate military action makes sense, the vote that passed said that no matter how compelling the evidence becomes - how strong the humanitarian concern - the UK won't be involving itself in the response. While I do think the current vote represents the views of the British people, I'm not sure they will represent it in a few weeks/months time. The actual resolution - calling for a "strong humanitarian response" and leaving open military action while requiring a further Parliamentary vote to sanction such action - seems pretty damned sensible to me. Hell, I'd argue that particular resolution is conservative when it comes to military action, essentially only authorising any military action endorsed by the UN SC (something that won't happen).
Question, is that mean they won't respond even if something absurdly unlikely and terrible happens?? That's impressively Isolationist.

So it seems like Obama is waiting on the UN Tomorrow for at least a small boost, and is meanwhile rallying the government at home. Congress wants to vote on it, although they are in recess, and there is so far no suggestion he will recall them, nor that he needs to. It seems increasingly likely he will seek their approval as the end of next week nears though, as recess ends then, and it'd piss them off if he does it then and they reconvene with it fresh in their minds. So we wait.
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Helgoland

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #4421 on: August 31, 2013, 04:50:15 am »

One thing I don't understand - from the newspapers I got the impression that the British parliament somehow prevented itself from voting on the same issue again, for example im Syria and Turkey start getting nasty or something like that.
Why can't they?
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Owlbread

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #4422 on: August 31, 2013, 09:06:52 am »

Sad to see such an endorsement of the use of chemical weaponry from people in power.

It's nothing new. Americans and NATO as a whole didn't give a damn when the Iraqis were using gas on Iranian soldiers. American inspectors even toured the battlefields after the attacks to gather information, no action was taken.

Besides, chemical weapons aren't nearly as bad as the mass murder that's been going on in Syria for years. Assad killed around 2000 civilians in 4 months back in 2011, nobody did anything.
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Sheb

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #4423 on: August 31, 2013, 09:30:04 am »

Still, chemical weapons are in a category of their own, and are really good at killing mass amount of civilians. People use rifles all the time, but by and large gases are banned. Saddam was the only case of gas used in combat since WW2. Keeping them that way would be good, just like the effort to ban landmines or cluster bombs are good, even though there is plenty of other ways to kill.
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10ebbor10

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #4424 on: August 31, 2013, 09:32:18 am »

Sad to see such an endorsement of the use of chemical weaponry from people in power.

It's nothing new. Americans and NATO as a whole didn't give a damn when the Iraqis were using gas on Iranian soldiers. American inspectors even toured the battlefields after the attacks to gather information, no action was taken.
Adding to that, there were massive Kurdic victims in those attacks too.
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