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[burningpet]

Didn't Israel have almost silly amounts of natural gas...? I remember reading it was worth half a billion ISK at the rates they want to extract. No idea how much that's really worth though.

Only recently found and it doesn't even come close to the reservoirs qatar and iran has. in terms of international importance, its almost negligible.

[Sheb]

Our economy run on oil. There is oil all over the place, or oil pipeline. So of course, a lot of war will happen in those place, whether or not oil actually has anything to do with it.

[Sonlirain]

Personally i'm kinda... well believing the egyptian military.

When i first heard of protesters getting shot around a MILITARY instalation i somehow knew exacly how it looked... those suicidal idiots wanted to get inside by force!

What works on a poorly protected embassy and various civilian buildings WON'T work on a MILITARY instalation.
If several thousand Alien enthusiasts wanted to get into Area 52 by storm would anyone be suprised if the american military opened fire on them?

At this point the only type of middle eastern goverment i can imagine that's not in a constant state of street warfare would have to be authoritarian... with enough soldiers and equipement to curbstomp anyone who has problems with it.

Seriously even Turkey (probably one of the most stable Islamic countries in the world) is slowly going more and more into sharia.
It's going to be the same drill.
The "sultan" gets overthrown for being too sharia loving, scores of jihadists immediately flood in from every border possible and the country turns into a boiling slug broth.

[10ebbor10]

Spoiler: Statistics on Oil (click to show/hide)

There are 30 countries in the middle east. The Oil-dry ones are

• Afghanistan
            -Mainly the remnants of a proxywar from the Cold war. Afghanistan has oil and natural gas though, with the latter heavily exploited by the USSR. Fields were capped of when the Sovjet troops retreated.
  
• Bahrain
           -A very quick look shows no wars in Bahrain after the 19^the century. There's an Arab Spring uprising, but it doesn't deserve the name revolution yet. Too peaceful.
  
• Cyprus
• Comoros
• Djibouti
• Eritrea
• Israel
        -It's not oil, but still Western influence. More importantly, the UK selling the area to get WWI loans, and the US supporting in order to protect and secure the oil fields in the surroundings.
  
• Jordan
       -Spillover from Isreali conflicts mainly.
  
• Lebanon
       -No links here, but the conflict isn't exactly recent.
  
• Mauritania
• Morocco
• Somalia
       -Can't find a link here. I suppose you could take potshots at passing tankers.

(Intentionally broke quote because I added comments to the list).

Point is, I was just arguing that the Middle East has been the playball of the West for some time.

[misko27]

Spoiler: Statistics on Oil (click to show/hide)

There are 30 countries in the middle east. The Oil-dry ones are

• Afghanistan
            -Mainly the remnants of a proxywar from the Cold war. Afghanistan has oil and natural gas though, with the latter heavily exploited by the USSR. Fields were capped of when the Sovjet troops retreated.
• Bahrain
           -A very quick look shows no wars in Bahrain after the 19^the century. There's an Arab Spring uprising, but it doesn't deserve the name revolution yet. Too peaceful.
• Cyprus
• Comoros
• Djibouti
• Eritrea
• Israel
        -It's not oil, but still Western influence. More importantly, the UK selling the area to get WWI loans, and the US supporting in order to protect and secure the oil fields in the surroundings.
• Jordan
       -Spillover from Isreali conflicts mainly.
• Lebanon
       -No links here, but the conflict isn't exactly recent.
• Mauritania
• Morocco
• Somalia
       -Can't find a link here. I suppose you could take potshots at passing tankers. [/l][/l]

(Intentionally broke quote because I added comments to the list).

Point is, I was just arguing that the Middle East has been the playball of the West for some time.

Well, yes, yes. This is true. Also I like the description for Somalia. I think that is what they do, they do have a lot of pirates.

As for Egypt, an interesting article in the NY times:[size=78%]http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/25/world/middleeast/egypt-widens-crackdown-and-meaning-of-islamist.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0[/size]


It occurs to me this was their plan all along. Faced with public pressure, they took down Mubarak, and immediately set about new elections before a credible alternative could emerge. A Islamist came to power, and Morsi dropped the ball on the rule many successful revolutions follow too well: Remove those previously in power. He thought he could use them to his advantage, and they allowed him to believe it while slowly, not necessarily trying to ruin him, but say, helping it along. He failed at governing badly, the military amplified the failure, the public did what the public does and demanded his ouster, which the military was all to happy to oblige with. Now, they have the primary opposition elements on the run, losing their public support, and so begin a final move on the original enemies of the state.


I wouldn't be surprised if this was the case actually, in which case they are brilliantly smart. Or more likely they sorta just did knee-jerk reactions which worked out brilliantly for them. Either way, the military is in power, and I see that continuing to be the case.[/list]

[Guardian G.I.]

According to RT, US armed forces will probably attack Syria this Thursday.

[10ebbor10]

China and Russia are protesting, so I'm not sure.

[Guardian G.I.]

China and Russia are protesting, so I'm not sure.

Have the protests of other countries ever stopped America from attacking someone? I don't think so.

[Dutchling]

China and Russia are protesting, so I'm not sure.

Have the protests of other countries ever stopped America from attacking someone? I don't think so.

It will stop a UN attack, but not a NATO or US attack.

[olemars]

In case of a NATO operation, the key player will be Turkey. This conflict literally hits closest to home for them and there is a risk of fighting on or over Turkish soil. On the other hand the government might appreciate some distraction from domestic issues, and it could provide a formal Article 5 justifcation if Turkey could say their border is threatened.

[misko27]

China and Russia are protesting, so I'm not sure.

Have the protests of other countries ever stopped America from attacking someone? I don't think so.

It will stop a UN attack, but not a NATO or US attack.

Yes, the US has signaled a desire to circumvent the UN here, calling the investigations "flawed". It seems entirely likely the US will receive backing from various countries though, possibly some in the middle east, as the Arab League has chosen to use Western rhetoric in describing the attack, and the middle eastern countries were supplying the rebels before the US. Turkey in particular could be a key player.

Mandrake, It looks like we're in a shooting war. I don't think we'll see attacks on supply sites unless the US puts boots on the ground, which is unlikely in and of itself; it's far too dangerous, and likely to just expose it to those who want it and contaminate the nearby. The most limited scope I can think of is a simple punitive strike, the most severe a immediate full-scale involvement in both the Anti-Assad war and minor ground soldier involvement to take out the Chemical Weapons, and the middle and likely option is a air war on Assad, Leaning moderately to the less-involved side.

[Owlbread]

As ever my eyes are on the UK here. Depending on how the British government handles this, it's going to really change the rules of the game on the political scene here. I don't see the Conservatives lasting long against even Labour (in their dismal state) if they get sucked into a much greater involvement than they plan, for instance. But of course Labour are soulless hawks anyway these days, it's not too far fetched they would agree with the Tories.

[10ebbor10]

As ever my eyes are on the UK here. Depending on how the British government handles this, it's going to really change the rules of the game on the political scene here. I don't see the Conservatives lasting long against even Labour (in their dismal state) if they get sucked into a much greater involvement than they plan, for instance. But of course Labour are soulless hawks anyway these days, it's not too far fetched they would agree with the Tories.

Depends, they might get away, like they did with the Falklands.

[LordSlowpoke]

As ever my eyes are on the UK here. Depending on how the British government handles this, it's going to really change the rules of the game on the political scene here. I don't see the Conservatives lasting long against even Labour (in their dismal state) if they get sucked into a much greater involvement than they plan, for instance. But of course Labour are soulless hawks anyway these days, it's not too far fetched they would agree with the Tories.

Depends, they might get away, like they did with the Falklands.

I'm fairly sure that the whole Falklands situation cannot be thrown into the same bag as Iraq, etc. The reason's sorta simple - Syria is not filled to the brim with UK citizens and it wouldn't be a defensive war.

[MonkeyHead]

As ever my eyes are on the UK here. Depending on how the British government handles this, it's going to really change the rules of the game on the political scene here. I don't see the Conservatives lasting long against even Labour (in their dismal state) if they get sucked into a much greater involvement than they plan, for instance. But of course Labour are soulless hawks anyway these days, it's not too far fetched they would agree with the Tories.

Depends, they might get away, like they did with the Falklands.

Doubt it. The deeply unpopular invovlement of UK troops in Iraq and Afghanistan is fresh in the mind of many people - lots of people voted against Labour for that very reason and the Conservatives will lose a lot of support if when UK forces are again involved.