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[Nadaka]

Bump. I'd appreciate information on how much Bradley Manning affected the Arab Spring, as well.

He started it. No really. It was the leak he made revealing the corruption and graft of Tunisian government officials that kicked off the whole shebang.

[SalmonGod]

Bump. I'd appreciate information on how much Bradley Manning affected the Arab Spring, as well.

He started it. No really. It was the leak he made revealing the corruption and graft of Tunisian government officials that kicked off the whole shebang.

Not completely, but it probably wouldn't have happened without him.  The leaks elevated pre-existing tensions, and then the right spark set them off.  That spark is most directly attributed to that street merchant who immolated himself in Tunisia, but similar things had happened with regularity for a long time.  Something changed that made the atmosphere more explosive, or else that would have just been the sad passing of another victim.

It's kind of like the ongoing drama with the NSA leaks.  The tension about surveillance has been there in our cultural consciousness for a long time.  The suspicion that surveillance operated on that level has been around for a long time.  Yet you rarely saw people talking about it like they're talking about it right now.  That in-our-faces mainstream confirmation of what's been on everyone's minds for the past decade didn't really change anything, but it's certainly raised the pre-existing tension level.

[Guardian G.I.]

Meanwhile in Syria:
After defeating the rebel forces in Qusair, the Syrian army is planning to launch an offensive in Aleppo.
By the way, several weeks ago, Russian media reported that Syria is planning to buy MiG-29 fighter jets from Russia.

[Owlbread]

This is going to be a huge battle. I predict that this will either be the FSA's or the Syrian Army's Stalingrad, depending on who wins.

[misko27]

This is going to be a huge battle. I predict that this will either be the FSA's or the Syrian Army's Stalingrad, depending on who wins.

Well, it could be both (like, you know, the actual Stalingrad).


They could both take epic losses, with neither side gaining much of an advantage for many months, till a complete encirclement dooms one side or the other to complete destruction.


I doubt it will come to this though. For one the city isn't even in rebel hands totally to begin with. A Steam roll is quite possible. Or, to take the Great Patriotic War Analogy further, a Leningrad.

[MonkeyHead]

If the rebels have any sense they will melt away and begin guerilla operations. You cant compete with a government at application of violence en masse.

[Owlbread]

The thing is though - the FSA have the support of the sunni jihadists of the world, along with most Sunni Arab states and, behind closed doors, USA, UK, Turkey and the EU. The Syrian government is relying on Hezbollah, Russia, Iran. They are quite evenly matched, so a guerilla war would be very brutal and I predict it would spread to Lebanon very quickly.

[misko27]

THere's also the rebels having some advantages due to their being a popular rebellion with the support of the people, and being rather hard to destroy completely, as well as having taken control of large sections of the country, where the government gets an advantage from it's established power, entrenchment, and superior firepower.


The Rebels are harder to wound in a permanent manner, can wait and bide time, but they are taking more hits, and hits that do hit them hit them hard. The Government is powerful, can take much more damage/injuries/assasinations/losses and come back, and hits harder, but also has a exploitable softer under-belly, with a "spine" of strength that can if struck right cripple them for extended periods of time, and suffers the distinction of losing if it ever gets to a one-on-one battle, n

[Sheb]

Except Iran, Hezbollah and Russia are far more serious about their help than the other side. Russia is actually selling advanced weapon systems, like those S-300 that will make a no-fly zone to costly for the West, whereas the rebs are only getting Kalashnikovs and radios.

Furthermore, Hezbollah and Iran are actually on the ground. I've read report of Iranian trainers and even regular armored units helping Assad, and apparently 2000 Hezbollah fighters joined in the recent taking of Qusayr. It's 1936 all over again, the Western democracies are letting a legitimate resistance movement die because they're too scared of an extreme ideology to match the bad guy's investment in the local fascist.

We need to either accept the rebels will loose and pull the plug so this war end, or step up very significantly our involvement. Right now, we're doing just enough to drag the suffering for as long as possible.

[misko27]

Yes, the problem is the rebels CAN bide their tiem and hide, but they've already extended too far to do so.

[Scoops Novel]

Bump. I'd appreciate information on how much Bradley Manning affected the Arab Spring, as well.

He started it. No really. It was the leak he made revealing the corruption and graft of Tunisian government officials that kicked off the whole shebang.

Restored edit: Nevermind, misread it.
Any articles/sources you have available would be greatly appreciated.

[Zangi]

No one wants a hellhole on Europe's doorstep, and on Greece's to boot. Libya was uncomfortably close and we actually did something about that.

Dragging things along by propping up a losing cause ain't gonna help in that matter. But I guess Sheb said that already. 
I don't see the political willpower for the world's cop to go in...   You need control of the anti-air for 'your side' before the no fly zone is going to happen.  The rebels cannot make that happen.  And yea... Either go all in or forget it. 

(Also, Syria is not at Greece's boot.  It is Turkey that is the 'boot'... a much bigger one at that.)

[Scoops Novel]

Like i edited earlier, i misread it and forgot where i was posting.

[XXSockXX]

The problem with intervening in Syria remains: There is no unified opposition. We don't know who wants to do what if Assad is gone.

Libya was relatively easy, this would require troops to go in at some point, which no one is willing and/or capable of doing.

Exporting democracy has not worked so far and supporting rebels might lead to even more instability. (We don't know what will happen in Libya either yet.)

Turkey intervening under a UN or NATO mission might have worked perhaps, but that is out of the question at the moment...

[Another]

And some people still remember how well helping rebel fighters in Afghanistan in the 80-s turned out.