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[Nadaka]

I really, really, really don't want to get involved in annother pointless Islamic feud. For a while there last year, I was really rooting for the secularists, but now it's pretty clear that the whole Arabic Spring was more about radical Islamists and more differenter radical Islamists.

Its a lot more clear that the secularist factions of the uprising were not able to hold together in the face of an well organized, well funded international organization dedicated to usurping their revolutions and replacing it with militant Islamic states. It didn't start Islamist, but they had better support and organization. I think it is a mistake that the west didn't step in and provide more support for the secularists.

[scriver]

Which is, unfortunately, also how the Iranian Revolution ended up putting theocrats in power, rather than restoring the democracy that the actual revolutionaries wanted back.

[SalmonGod]

Thought someone here might be interested in Roger Waters giving a speech to the UN about Palestinian statehood.

Nothing really interesting or entertaining about it... besides the fact that it's mega-legend rock star giving a political speech to a large gathering of world leaders.

[Kogan Loloklam]

If Assyd used chemical weapons, the USA will put boots on the ground in Syria. If we don't we'll lose face on the international stage.

If the USA puts boots on the ground in Syria, russia will react negativly. Anyone know how?

I ask because the Syrian governmental official who put his career and reputation on the line by swearing Syria would NOT use chemical weapons resigned or defected or something. Every single message I keep hearing is about the Syrian chemical weapons.  Be it rebels or the government, people will get gassed before the year is over I think. (Yes, I am predicting a gas attack in the next 20 days)
The USA will have to invade, and I wanna know if it's a Nato-Warsaw successors war.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

It isn't. Russia will drop Syria instantly if they start using Sarin. Everybody will. Using Sarin is just one of those things.

[PTTG??]

I can hardly imagine Russia supporting so blatant an action as an intentional chemical weapon attack.
That said, if I try really, really hard to imagine it, I can imagine it. I'm worried myself, though I suspect that you may be right.

If we're lucky, we'll just zerg rush their airspace with drones, destroy any flying objects larger than a moderate-sized sparrow, and have all our boots on the ground on the ground in California, in trailers full of computers.

Hard to get people to deploy nerve gas when you have to throw it by hand.

Of course, any action in Syria at this point will involve NATO fighting Russian materiel. I doubt that they would ever actually put Russians inside the tanks in question, though.

[RedKing]

I think Putin might not give a shit about chemical weapons (let's consider what Russian forces have done in Chechnya. Or what they did in the 2002 [url]=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moscow_theater_hostage_crisis]theater siege in Moscow[/url).

That said, Russia is not Putin. Not yet, anyways. I think they'll officially back the fuck away from Assad, but wouldn't be surprised if they funnel some backdoor resources and intelligence support.

[Owlbread]

I think Putin might not give a shit about chemical weapons (let's consider what Russian forces have done in Chechnya. Or what they did in the 2002 [url]=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moscow_theater_hostage_crisis]theater siege in Moscow[/url).

That said, Russia is not Putin. Not yet, anyways. I think they'll officially back the fuck away from Assad, but wouldn't be surprised if they funnel some backdoor resources and intelligence support.

Putin is a brutal, corrupt bastard but he knows his international ass is on the line here. He will have to step up. Nobody cares what happens to a few Muslims out in the Caucasus (most politicians probably couldn't find Chechnya on a map, and they're just Muslims anyway with more gold teeth in their heads than sense. They're not even from a famous Muslim country) but that was an internal matter. Sketchy stuff, the usual kind of horrors that the international community can easily brush under the carpet regardless of the amount of suffering. Syria is on the international stage and everyone is watching Russia. Putin won't allow sarin.

[Funk]

Assyd is like a crazy man with a blade to a hostages throat saying yelling treats at every one.
only the blade is Sarin gas in a Scud.

Russia really does not whant syria to do anything it just whants 6+ months for the press to die down then it can send in aid and advisors, or what ever he whants to do.

[misko27]

I've heard reports from russians in Syria that Assad is assuming he's going to die anyway. He doesn't want a diplomatic solution, because He'll be killed. He is going to stick around as long as physically possible, whatever the costs. He doesn't believe the international community, or his people, will let him escape.

[Helgoland]

That... actually sounds sensible - who you pronounce dead lives longer, after all.

[Korbac]

Of course, if Assad had stepped down earlier before killing his own people, he probably wouldn't be killed.

He's the one who chose double or nothing - and it looks like it's going to be nothing.

Don't gamble if you can't sustain a loss.

[SalmonGod]

The most important thing for any dictator to understand is that you can only control your people as much as they feel they have something to lose.

"Everything sucks, but I have my family and we're surviving for now.  We stand up for ourselves to make things better and we'll probably lose everything.  Better to continue on meekly with what little we have."

When people can no longer tell themselves that, it's all over.

[Scoops Novel]

What can you tell me about Checnya? Was there much notice paid?

[Owlbread]

What can you tell me about Checnya? Was there much notice paid?

No. Now look at them.