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Author Topic: Egypt and the world and Libya - Now without Ukraine!  (Read 377585 times)

MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3240 on: October 21, 2012, 08:27:51 pm »

He can actually afford to be more batshit that the Ayatolah, since the Ayatolah can overrule him when he goes too crazy.
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alway

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3241 on: October 22, 2012, 02:23:02 am »

At this point, it's sort of becoming clear what will occur. Things will continue to get worse in Iran, due primarily to the sanctions; the outgoing Ahmadinejad will increasingly become the scapegoat for all Iran's ills, the new replacement will come in, amid clamor for Ahmadinejad's ousting (which, being 8 months from planned end of his term, will happen anyway). The new guy will be a popular figure of "economic reform" consisting of either propping up their economy with a combination of subsidies and confidence-restoring bluster, or, if that fails, working towards a way to thwart sanctions through alliances, or if all else fails, cancel the Iranian nuclear program, blaming the cancellation on Ahmadinejad and widespread Israeli sabotage (by this I mean planting bombs/carbombs to kill/disappear most of their own high-ranking nuclear scientists, or something to that effect, followed by blaming it on the Israelis). Effectively putting a new guy in as face of the regime and improving Iranian opinion of them.
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Owlbread

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3242 on: October 22, 2012, 11:18:43 am »

At this point, it's sort of becoming clear what will occur. Things will continue to get worse in Iran, due primarily to the sanctions; the outgoing Ahmadinejad will increasingly become the scapegoat for all Iran's ills, the new replacement will come in, amid clamor for Ahmadinejad's ousting (which, being 8 months from planned end of his term, will happen anyway). The new guy will be a popular figure of "economic reform" consisting of either propping up their economy with a combination of subsidies and confidence-restoring bluster, or, if that fails, working towards a way to thwart sanctions through alliances, or if all else fails, cancel the Iranian nuclear program, blaming the cancellation on Ahmadinejad and widespread Israeli sabotage (by this I mean planting bombs/carbombs to kill/disappear most of their own high-ranking nuclear scientists, or something to that effect, followed by blaming it on the Israelis). Effectively putting a new guy in as face of the regime and improving Iranian opinion of them.

They don't need to lie about the carbombs and whatnot. The Israelis do that anyway.
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Guardian G.I.

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this means that a donation of 30 dollars to a developer that did not deliver would equal 4.769*10^-14 hitlers stolen from you
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Guardian G.I.

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3244 on: November 01, 2012, 04:59:22 am »

All protests and gatherings are officially banned in Bahrain.

Should the government of Syria, Iran or any other country who disagrees with American foreign policy do something like this, the Western countries would immediately condemn it, call it undemocratic, put sanctions, etc.
A country which is a US ally and hosts American troops, like Bahrain, can do anything, and no one would ever call for sanctions, no-fly zones, armed interventions...
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this means that a donation of 30 dollars to a developer that did not deliver would equal 4.769*10^-14 hitlers stolen from you
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and that is terrible
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Il Palazzo

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3245 on: November 01, 2012, 05:10:55 am »

Business as usual then.

I don't think anybody took notice when Doctors Without Borders reported on Bahrain imprisoning and torturing local doctors treating the opposition/protesters, and that was before the whole shebang in Syria.
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Sheb

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3247 on: November 01, 2012, 06:35:57 am »

Well Guardian, when Mubarak went down, the US were openly calling for him to step down. It's just not practical to lean too strongly on Bahrain, because the Saudi got their back. And pissing off the guys that are sitting on the world's largest oil reserves.

It's not that the West don't want to spread democracy. It's that they have other interests, and they have to take into account what's practical. No one talked of imposing a no-flight zone over Russia during the Chechen wars for exemple. Not because we like the Russians, but because it's not practical.

It's kinda sad, but the West at least promote democracy in some case, while other big countries (Russia or China) don't give a fuck at all.
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MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3248 on: November 01, 2012, 10:12:15 am »

Bahrain is a problematic situation. They are effectively a puppet state of Saudi Arabia where rich Saudis can visit when they need to really cut loose and normal methods wouldn't be sufficient to pay off the religious police if they were to be caught. Saudi Arabia's goverment would hence very much care about any kind of outside interference with their resort nation, more than a good deal of other things. The Saudis might condemn the other revolutions but they aren't going to actually do anything about it, where as there is a decent chance of their direct intervention in Bahrain.
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olemars

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3249 on: November 01, 2012, 10:23:35 am »

Bahrain is a problematic situation. They are effectively a puppet state of Saudi Arabia where rich Saudis can visit when they need to really cut loose and normal methods wouldn't be sufficient to pay off the religious police if they were to be caught. Saudi Arabia's goverment would hence very much care about any kind of outside interference with their resort nation, more than a good deal of other things. The Saudis might condemn the other revolutions but they aren't going to actually do anything about it, where as there is a decent chance of their direct intervention in Bahrain.

"Decent chance" is an understatement. There was an uprising in Bahrain last year that noone seems to remember, where Saudi Arabia sent soldiers and tanks across the bridge to deal with protests.
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Wayward Device

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3250 on: November 01, 2012, 02:27:49 pm »

Bahrain is a problematic situation. They are effectively a puppet state of Saudi Arabia where rich Saudis can visit when they need to really cut loose and normal methods wouldn't be sufficient to pay off the religious police if they were to be caught. Saudi Arabia's goverment would hence very much care about any kind of outside interference with their resort nation, more than a good deal of other things. The Saudis might condemn the other revolutions but they aren't going to actually do anything about it, where as there is a decent chance of their direct intervention in Bahrain.

"Decent chance" is an understatement. There was an uprising in Bahrain last year that noone seems to remember, where Saudi Arabia sent soldiers and tanks across the bridge to deal with protests.

Yep. And in the 90's. There a causeway from Bahrain to Saudi and one of the main reasons it was built, apart from allowing rich Saudis to send the their Indian (non-muslim) drivers into state owned (owned by the Bahraini Prime Minister) alcohol shops, was to allow Saudi Arabia to rush troops into Bahrain whenever its wants. There's all sorts of undercurrents that aren't really reported on very well in the western media. Basically, Bahrain's social pyramid is the extended Khalifa family (can list amusing examples of nepotism and corruption, if anyone's interested) at the top, followed by a small minority of Sunni muslims (historically, the descendants of the Sunni's who conquered Bahrain a few hundred years ago from the "native" population of Shias, back when it was a world center of pearl diving) who generally own everything of any value. Under them are Shias, who before modernization were essentially the serf class, tending the land and being servants/pearl divers etc. Today, they are they are almost all unemployed (between 70%-90% depending on who you listen to), their role replaced by the last, largest and lowest group in the pyramid, the migrant workers. These have no rights, and I could regail you with stories of their ill treatment, but this is the modern internet, I don't really need to say more than "take away your passport slavery".

Also, the unrest has been active since "The Events" of last year, as the Pearl roundabout protest are commonly known in Bahrain. It's actually been almost impossible to travel most weekends because of a mixture of police roadblocks and protesters lighting lines of tires on fire on the highways, and most nights see clashes between Shia youths and the police. One good thing about Bahrain, petrol/gas, whatever you want to call it, is really cheap. People I know out there fill up their SUVs for less than $25. Mostly, the police are composed of Pakistani footsoldiers, for want of a better word, with Sunni Bahraini officers.

As an amusing an anecdote to lighten up a depressing post (which is actually cold, hard fact):

Since "The Events" last year, the Pearl Roundabout has become a symbol of the movement, you find it stenciled on walls everywhere etc. So the government responded by making the roundabout verboten. The roads leading to it were closed and (I'm not quiet sure about this one) it has since been demolished. However, one problem the government faced with their attempt to suppress this symbol was that, being a famous landmark, it was on the 500 fils coin (like, half a dollar or something. You could by maybe a small coffe with it and some other change). So they recalled and stopped issuing all 500 fils coins.

As a final thing, the real undercurrent of what's going on is actually a front of the cold war between Saudi Arabia as the Center of the Sunni faith and Iran as its Shia rival. Basically, in Bahrain Iran is saying "Hey disenfranchised people who are of our faith and may share a common ancestry, depending on how you look at it, we don't like those slightly different islam guys who are oppressing you, have as much support as we can smuggle into your well known for smuggling island." While Saudi, and by extension their puppets the Khalifa family, are saying "Not while our oil money lets us spam burly Pakistani men with shotguns, batons and those shields with the taser on the front."

       
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or maybe Valve goes out of business because they invested too heavily in something which then fails - like, say, human civilization.
Alternatively, initiate strife to refuse additional baked goods, and then abscond.

RedKing

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3251 on: November 01, 2012, 02:40:02 pm »

The bigger problem with doing anything vis-a-vis Bahrain is the rather large US Naval presence there. It's the headquarters for the US Fifth Fleet. We've sunk billions of dollars into the facility at NSA Bahrain, and we don't have a whole lot of other options in the region. (I suppose we could try to negotiate some kind of deal to build a huge naval base at Basra, but not only would that take years to get established, it would place the Fleet within easy reach of Iranian missile batteries.)

I think that's the bigger stumbling block rather than Saudi ties. We don't want anything to upset the apple cart in Bahrain. Democratic government could mean an anti-American Islamist democracy which kicks the Fleet out and leaves our ability to respond in the region heavily impacted.


(Not arguing this on moral grounds, purely pragmatic ones.)
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Sheb

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3252 on: November 01, 2012, 02:46:11 pm »

I wonder what kind of deal the US Navy got with Bahrain. After all, Castro is as anti-american as leader gets, and the US still got a rather large base in Guantanamo.
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MetalSlimeHunt

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3253 on: November 01, 2012, 04:03:57 pm »

I think that's the bigger stumbling block rather than Saudi ties. We don't want anything to upset the apple cart in Bahrain. Democratic government could mean an anti-American Islamist democracy which kicks the Fleet out and leaves our ability to respond in the region heavily impacted.
Perhaps, but I would remind you of the pro-American sentiment that flourished in Libya following the revolution. We kind of undermine the things the Islamists say about us when we help the people of a nation to achieve freedom and autonomy. Islamist groups will of course always still say we're imperialist satanic dogs out to enslave their people, but if we publicly do the exact opposite it makes said Islamists look like the delusional extremists they are in front of everyone.
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RedKing

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Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #3254 on: November 01, 2012, 04:09:51 pm »

I think that's the bigger stumbling block rather than Saudi ties. We don't want anything to upset the apple cart in Bahrain. Democratic government could mean an anti-American Islamist democracy which kicks the Fleet out and leaves our ability to respond in the region heavily impacted.
Perhaps, but I would remind you of the pro-American sentiment that flourished in Libya following the revolution. We kind of undermine the things the Islamists say about us when we help the people of a nation to achieve freedom and autonomy. Islamist groups will of course always still say we're imperialist satanic dogs out to enslave their people, but if we publicly do the exact opposite it makes said Islamists look like the delusional extremists they are in front of everyone.
Yes, but you don't gamble your power projection capability in a strategic region on "goodwill" (God, I realize I sound like fucking Kissinger with the realpolitik here...)

Libya was fine to gamble on -- we had no strategic presence there, and honestly it doesn't have that much strategic value in any case. Losing our base in Bahrain would be a major problem with a capital M. Egypt is/was more worrisome because of the Suez Canal. Basically, we're fine with allowing free and fair elections in places where we're relatively certain we'll be able to work with whatever government results; or, in places nobody gives a rat's ass about in the first place. Many of the potentates in the Middle East fail on both points: they're strategically important and run the risk of electing folks who we would not be able to work with. (And yes, I realize that the inherent hypocrisy that results from this pragmatism is inherently helping the very folks we're worried about.)
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