Bay 12 Games Forum

Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
Advanced search  
Pages: 1 ... 182 183 [184] 185 186 ... 416

Author Topic: Egypt and the world and Libya - Now without Ukraine!  (Read 377171 times)

Another

  • Bay Watcher
    • View Profile
Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #2745 on: June 26, 2012, 09:10:51 am »

...
That would have shown a certain amount of respect towards any of the neighboring countries they should be trying to appease in any way possible.
...
Would you in their place try your best to show any amount of respect to the country that hosts people who killed your military and police officers and are semi-secretly trained and supplied weapons by their intelligence agency and by CIA agents?

Not to say that Syria doesn't do that covertly but I have not heard about training camps for Kurdish separatists on Syrian land in a kind of symmetric response. That would be called supporting international terrorists and to be grounds to bomb the shit out of Syria.
Logged

Duuvian

  • Bay Watcher
  • Internet ≠ Real Life
    • View Profile
Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #2746 on: June 26, 2012, 09:22:21 am »

...
That would have shown a certain amount of respect towards any of the neighboring countries they should be trying to appease in any way possible.
...
Would you in their place try your best to show any amount of respect to the country that hosts people who killed your military and police officers and are semi-secretly trained and supplied weapons by their intelligence agency and by CIA agents?

Not to say that Syria doesn't do that covertly but I have not heard about training camps for Kurdish separatists on Syrian land in a kind of symmetric response. That would be called supporting international terrorists and to be grounds to bomb the shit out of Syria.

You have to understand that they are in a very delicate diplomatic situation. By showing a continuing unwillingness to compromise they turn their show of power into a show of ineptitude.

Also yes, I would show them the utmost respect if they were on the brink of hostilities.

Spoiler (click to show/hide)
« Last Edit: June 26, 2012, 09:40:04 am by Duuvian »
Logged
FINISHED original composition:
https://app.box.com/s/jq526ppvri67astrc23bwvgrkxaicedj

Sort of finished and awaiting remix due to loss of most recent song file before addition of drums:
https://www.box.com/s/s3oba05kh8mfi3sorjm0 <-zguit

Another

  • Bay Watcher
    • View Profile
Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #2747 on: June 26, 2012, 09:31:11 am »

Hopefully the Syrians will cooperate fully with all humanitarian efforts and will resolve this incident as politely and respectfully to the Turks as possible. But assuming that they are not allowed to shoot at military planes that briefly strafe into their airspace is just not realistic.
Logged

RedKing

  • Bay Watcher
  • hoo hoo motherfucker
    • View Profile
Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #2748 on: June 26, 2012, 09:45:55 am »

Let's try to keep the discussion limited to what is publicly known and attestable, shall we? If we start basing discussion off "well, obviously they're doing X" or "I heard they were doing Y" we can nosedive into tinfoil hat territory pretty quickly.

The Kurdish situation is complicated, to say the least. (And here I'm going to go and violate what I just said by using info that, while unclassified, isn't exactly public knowledge)

There was a big dustup within the PKK about 4-5 years ago, as the new AKP government in Turkey used a stick-and-carrot approach, making amnesty offers for PKK members that would disarm and surrender, while simultaneously ramping up military pressure. That ramping up of military pressure made things kind of dicey for a while there, when the Turks were beginning to make cross-border incursions into Iraq, royally pissing off the KUP/PDK (two Iraqi Kurdish groups) who controlled the north of Iraq with US support. They finally backed off, but the overall campaign worked well. There was also an issue of a few weapons caches captured by the Turkish Army which had some pretty state-of-the-art US gear in them, and indications that these were being sold by Blackwater, the mercenary company that the US was using in Iraq. But anyways...

The reason it worked so well was that there was an internal schism within the PKK between the Turkish-born Kurds (who were favoring some kind of negotiated settlement and political representation, similar to what the IRA achieved in Ireland) and a faction of Syrian-born Kurds who were advocating greater use of terrorist tactics and some kind of alignment with al-Qaeda. The combination of pressure and incentives worked well on the Turkish faction, and a number of PKK turned themselves in (and ratted out their Syrian rivals). There was no clear connection to indicate that the Syrian faction was in any way actively supported by Syria, but certainly the Turks thought that to be the case.

When you look at the PKK's tactics and modus operandi, they form two distinct groups. In the Kurdish-dominated southeastern provinces like Hakkari, Van and Diyarbakir they're essentially an armed insurgency. It's military tactics (ambushes, landmines, armed assaults) on military targets (army outposts, convoys, village militias). In the urban western provinces, they're a terrorist group. It's car bombs, drive-by grenade attacks, assassinations, etc. And the targets are typically civilian and/or Turkish government. The Turkish faction favored the armed insurgency approach, while the Syrian faction favored the terrorist approach.

In any case, whatever "honeymoon" period existed after the 2007 campaign seems to have worn off, as the PKK has been active of late in the east, which seems to indicate that the Turkish faction still holds sway within the PKK. I haven't followed the news and analysis closely the last couple of years so I'm not sure if the Syrian faction was purged, or is still there.
Logged

Remember, knowledge is power. The power to make other people feel stupid.
Quote from: Neil DeGrasse Tyson
Science is like an inoculation against charlatans who would have you believe whatever it is they tell you.

Duuvian

  • Bay Watcher
  • Internet ≠ Real Life
    • View Profile
Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #2749 on: June 26, 2012, 10:31:48 am »

This makes sense to me RedKing. How does that play into what's going on now? I could guess and jump to conclusions but I'd rather hear more from you especially your conclusions before I comment. Thanks for your time as well, you're always great to have in these discussions.
« Last Edit: June 26, 2012, 10:33:20 am by Duuvian »
Logged
FINISHED original composition:
https://app.box.com/s/jq526ppvri67astrc23bwvgrkxaicedj

Sort of finished and awaiting remix due to loss of most recent song file before addition of drums:
https://www.box.com/s/s3oba05kh8mfi3sorjm0 <-zguit

Haspen

  • Bay Watcher
  • Cthuwu
    • View Profile
Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #2750 on: June 26, 2012, 11:11:45 am »

There are rumors now that British army entered Syria border to create some sort of 'safe' zone near Syria-Turkey border...

Anyone heard any real news about that?
Logged
SigFlags!
Quote from: Draignean@Spamkingdom+
Truly, we have the most uniquely talented spy network in all existence.
Quote from: mightymushroom@Spamkingdom#
Please tell me the Royal Physician didn't go to the same college as the Spymaster.

RedKing

  • Bay Watcher
  • hoo hoo motherfucker
    • View Profile
Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #2751 on: June 26, 2012, 12:31:54 pm »

This makes sense to me RedKing. How does that play into what's going on now? I could guess and jump to conclusions but I'd rather hear more from you especially your conclusions before I comment. Thanks for your time as well, you're always great to have in these discussions.
Not really sure. It's possible that Syria is offering the PKK some inducements to stir up trouble (to keep Turkey busy), but it's equally probable that the PKK is just being opportunistic or that it's driven by domestic factors. Like I said, I haven't been monitoring closely the last couple of years (the PKK was the focus of one of my projects in grad school). The PKK has a history of being extremely opportunistic and reinventing itself to try and stay relevant. They were a leftist/Marxist insurgency in the 70's and 80's, then after the Soviets fell apart, they rebranded as a nationalist/ethnic separatist group, then after 2001 they flirted with being an Islamic insurgency. I'd need to take a look at their messaging concurrent with this recent flare-up and see if they've rebranded again, to get an insight into their motivations.

@Haspen: Only sources I'm seeing that mentions British forces are InfoWars, Debkafile, and some pro-Syrian websites. So, no real news.
Logged

Remember, knowledge is power. The power to make other people feel stupid.
Quote from: Neil DeGrasse Tyson
Science is like an inoculation against charlatans who would have you believe whatever it is they tell you.

Guardian G.I.

  • Bay Watcher
  • "And it ducks, and it covers!"
    • View Profile
Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #2752 on: June 26, 2012, 12:41:17 pm »

@Haspen: Only sources I'm seeing that mentions British forces are InfoWars, Debkafile, and some pro-Syrian websites. So, no real news.

They are probably undercover, posing as rebels, just like in Libya. After their mission is over, we will hear about them.
Logged
this means that a donation of 30 dollars to a developer that did not deliver would equal 4.769*10^-14 hitlers stolen from you
that's like half a femtohitler
and that is terrible
Sigtext

Duuvian

  • Bay Watcher
  • Internet ≠ Real Life
    • View Profile
Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #2753 on: June 26, 2012, 01:24:25 pm »

Something from Afghanistan:

http://blogs.aljazeera.com/blog/asia/national-uprising-waged-afghan-rights

I would highly recommend to the American and Afghanistan governmental forces to reach out to these people as honorably and generously as they may to people as wary of those two groups as they are.
Logged
FINISHED original composition:
https://app.box.com/s/jq526ppvri67astrc23bwvgrkxaicedj

Sort of finished and awaiting remix due to loss of most recent song file before addition of drums:
https://www.box.com/s/s3oba05kh8mfi3sorjm0 <-zguit

Urist McDepravity

  • Bay Watcher
    • View Profile
Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #2754 on: June 27, 2012, 08:21:55 am »

Regarding Russian position on Syria, you guys are missing one important aspect - here in Russia its not just Putin who supports Assad, its Russian public opinion that Lybia, Syria, Venesuella, North Korea, Iran etc. are our allies and we must protect them.
When Medvedev ordered to vote in favor of UN resolution which allowed to bomb Lybia, here it was perceived as betrayal by many Russians, and his rating suffered significantly. Libya was one of the reasons why Putin had to become president again - Medvedev was perceived as weak by public, influenced by "The West" too much and unable to protect national interests. So Putin just cannot do anything which could be interpreted as "anti-Syrian" - he will not gain support of liberal part of nation (they hate him no matter what he do), but will lose support from both patriotic part and left part.
People are demanding government to deploy Russian troops in Syria, as peace-keeping force (technically, it could be done under CSTO mandate) or just to "protect Russian base and Russian population". And it gets worse each time islamic guerillas commit crimes against alavites and non-muslims - there are about 600000 christians in Syria, and Russian medias speculate that sunnites will either exterminate or expel them from the country if they win.
Logged

Strife26

  • Bay Watcher
    • View Profile
Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #2755 on: June 27, 2012, 08:30:12 am »

Heck, as far as I'm concerned, Syria's gone all kerfluffy. They're using attack choppers against their own citizens, *and* they shot down a NATO aircraft? I'd have no problem whatsoever if article five starts getting bandied around.
Logged
Even the avatars expire eventually.

MetalSlimeHunt

  • Bay Watcher
  • Gerrymander Commander
    • View Profile
Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #2756 on: June 27, 2012, 09:22:35 am »

If Turkey isn't going to bring up Article Five at a meeting about this very incident, I don't think anyone is. Not that they necessarily need NATO for this, Turkey could probably defeat what's left of the Syrian loyalists by themselves without serious difficulty.
Logged
Quote from: Thomas Paine
To argue with a man who has renounced the use and authority of reason, and whose philosophy consists in holding humanity in contempt, is like administering medicine to the dead, or endeavoring to convert an atheist by scripture.
Quote
No Gods, No Masters.

Sheb

  • Bay Watcher
  • You Are An Avatar
    • View Profile
Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #2757 on: June 27, 2012, 09:42:35 am »

Well, the fact is that the European don't really want to be dragged into this. The Dutch Foreign Minister said there would be no military intervention for example. If Turkey was to invoke article 5, the European would wiggle out of there and NATO's standing would be left weakened. It's better not to invoke article 5, and just let whoever want to kick Syrian asses do so.

Urist, really? I mean, Venezuela, okay, but protecting North Korea? That's like, one of the worst regime ever!
Logged

Quote from: Paul-Henry Spaak
Europe consists only of small countries, some of which know it and some of which don’t yet.

nenjin

  • Bay Watcher
  • Inscrubtable Exhortations of the Soul
    • View Profile
Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #2758 on: June 27, 2012, 09:51:02 am »

Regarding Russian position on Syria, you guys are missing one important aspect - here in Russia its not just Putin who supports Assad, its Russian public opinion that Lybia, Syria, Venesuella, North Korea, Iran etc. are our allies and we must protect them.
When Medvedev ordered to vote in favor of UN resolution which allowed to bomb Lybia, here it was perceived as betrayal by many Russians, and his rating suffered significantly. Libya was one of the reasons why Putin had to become president again - Medvedev was perceived as weak by public, influenced by "The West" too much and unable to protect national interests. So Putin just cannot do anything which could be interpreted as "anti-Syrian" - he will not gain support of liberal part of nation (they hate him no matter what he do), but will lose support from both patriotic part and left part.

So a large part of Russian unwillingness to directly intervene in Syria is......they don't want to feel like they're being told what to do by the West?

I mean, I get it. But with more than 10,000 causalities it's effectively punishing Syria for the very fact the US has an opinion on Syria.
Logged
Cautivo del Milagro seamos, Penitente.
Quote from: Viktor Frankl
When we are no longer able to change a situation, we are challenged to change ourselves.
Quote from: Sindain
Its kinda silly to complain that a friendly NPC isn't a well designed boss fight.
Quote from: Eric Blank
How will I cheese now assholes?
Quote from: MrRoboto75
Always spaghetti, never forghetti

RedKing

  • Bay Watcher
  • hoo hoo motherfucker
    • View Profile
Re: Egypt and the world and Libya
« Reply #2759 on: June 27, 2012, 09:52:57 am »

If Turkey isn't going to bring up Article Five at a meeting about this very incident, I don't think anyone is. Not that they necessarily need NATO for this, Turkey could probably defeat what's left of the Syrian loyalists by themselves without serious difficulty.
I dunno about that. The Turkish Army has spent the last 40 years fighting the PKK. That has put a strain on the army in terms of morale and popular support. And Turkey has to tread carefully here. They're something of a distant cousin in terms of the Middle East geopolitical scene, because they're not Arabs. Turkey's never been quite at home in Europe *or* in the Middle East. Their staunch, militant secularism didn't win a lot of friends in Arab public opinion, either.

But now that the AKP has been running things for a few years, and the Turks have kind of joined onto the broader Sunni coalition to contain the growing "Shi'a Crescent" (of which Syria is a part)...it's kind of up in the air how the other countries in the region would react to a unilateral Turkish intervention. I'm betting probably balance-of-power would trump religion and ethnic ties and they'd be opposed (at least in official government capacity), just because if Turkey topples Assad and then has inordinate influence over any post-Assad regime, they become more likely to interfere in the affairs of neighboring states like Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq.

Opinion in the street would be far more variable. Hezbollah in Lebanon would denounce Turkey in the harshest terms. Anti-Hezbollah factions would praise them. Jordanians would run the gamut, but probably not as pro-Turkey as they once would have been (Jordan was long an ally of the West but has been steadily drifting away). Iran would denounce Turkey because Syria is a strategic ally. I honestly have no idea what the Iraqi government would do, especially if it was Turkey unilaterally and the US failed to support it. Iraq has complicated relations with Turkey because of the Kurdish sanctuaries in northern Iraq and the Shi'ite majority government, but they're not natural allies of Syria either. The Saudis would probably try to remain neutral while voicing muted support for Turkey if intervention stemmed from anything remotely legitimate, like another jet being downed. Not sure where the Egyptians would fall, probably similar to the Saudis.

Assad is a persona non grata in most of the Arab world because he's become toxic. Support for him carries negative diplomatic effects with much of the Western world, even as the diplomatic battle lines are starting to look like the Cold War all over again, with Russia (and to a lesser extent, China) backing whoever is antagonist to "the West".
Logged

Remember, knowledge is power. The power to make other people feel stupid.
Quote from: Neil DeGrasse Tyson
Science is like an inoculation against charlatans who would have you believe whatever it is they tell you.
Pages: 1 ... 182 183 [184] 185 186 ... 416