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[GamerKnight]

So... Do you think a full scale revolution is in order? Communist? Anarchist? Etc?

[nenjin]

I think a revolution is under way (especially after that last appointment, wow, stellar move.)

The question on my mind is whether it will be a secular, religious, or mixed one. As a westerner, to me it seems in the Middle East it's less about political ideology...and more about political alignment and the divide (or lack there of) between secular and religious authorities.

And I guess I'm wondering where the military will stand in all this. If they chose to move on Mubarak today, this would be over. It seems like Mubarak is almost hoping the protests will just run out of energy and people will go back to work. That's not usually how it pans out. Now that law and order has mostly broken down, it's a matter of how long it takes them to decide to storm the palace. At that point the military has to pick a side.

[GamerKnight]

Thats how all revolutions go. If the military turns on the protesters this will get really bloody. If they turn on the government it will be more peaceful.

[nenjin]

I wouldn't count on a military/populist coup being more peaceful. They can be equally as bloody, especially when they start holding people accountable in the court of public justice.

[GamerKnight]

Kind of like the French Revolution? I can see that, but I think that the military firing in to a massive crowd would be a lot more bloody than a few politicians who were arseholes anyway getting killed.

[nenjin]

Kind of like the French Revolution

That would be semi-orderly compared to what would happen if a coup takes places and there's no real governing authority to take power. Middle Eastern justice can be harsh, and once people have died (which they have), anyone in the current government is a target for street justice. Not just "a few politicians who were arseholes."

[olemars]

I guess that's why there are reports of private jets leaving egypt for "business trips abroad".

[nenjin]

You bet. Anyone with money and/or interests invested in the current regime is probably desperate to get out of country right now. When civil order is breaking down and regime change seems on the horizon, who are people most likely to turn against?

Their landlords.

[olemars]

The egyptian authorities have apparently revoked Al-jazeera's broadcast rights and press credentials. Will be interesting to see how they're going to enforce that.

[GamerKnight]

They'll probably do it Cuban-style, since that seems to work the best.

[olemars]

A large chunk of the egyptian judicial system has joined the protests in Cairo. Not entirely surprising, judges were in front of a smaller protest a few years ago due to the fixed elections.

EDIT: An egyptian activist (and surgeon) calling in to al-jaz had spoken to an army officer, and the army had received orders to shoot but hadn't followed them.

[Aqizzar]

If or when anyone was actually ordered to open fire is questionable.  They were ordered to enforce a curfew that obviously hadn't happened.

ElBaradi was freed from his house (exactly how isn't clear, the police guarding him probably just left).  He has joined the protesters in some fashion, and redoubled his call for Mubarak to resign.

Everybody's praying again, although it's hard to find any government personnel to pray in front of, except for the soldiers who are mostly still at posts.  Until anything else happens, the real story is the running battles with looters and so forth.  Egypt, especially the urban areas, has a remarkably low level of gun ownership.  A few reporters were treated to the borderline-apocalyptic sight of bike-mounted crooks being fended off by neighborhood guards wielding swords and broomsticks.

[olemars]

Up here in Scandinavia, the biggest news is that tanks are rolling into Sharm-El-Sheik, a resort town on the Sinai peninsula popular with european vacationers (especially in northern europe). Those towns had been spared any problems so far, with the travel companies running charter flights down there as normal. Today the army entered town and a 16-8 curfew will be enforced, so they're now vaguely considering flying their tourists back home.

[Aqizzar]

Mohamed ElBaradei speaks out on CNN with Fareed Zakaria:  He has assumed the mantle of leadership the protesters have essentially given him, and makes no bones about wanting the job.  He respects Suleiman but insists that only a restaffing of the government, and probably a new constitution, will reshape the government to his and by extension his supporters' desire.  He swears as soon as that is sorted out, proper U.N. monitored elections will be the first thing on the agenda.  He's insistent that Mubarak must resign within the day, and is confident that the United States will echo that.  He's also confident in Egypt's ability to keep radicals like the Muslim Brotherhood out of the transitory government.

Who knows how right he is or how honest he is, but you don't get to be Director of the IAEA and one of the American government's closest NGO partners without straight dealing and knowing your shit.  And since ElBaradei was practically crowned leader of the opposition without ever asking for it as soon as he returned to the country, it's not hard to imagine he'll at least be supported by most of the populace in whatever he does.  All the same, it certainly looks like Mubarak intends to go down by tooth and nail.

[Dwarf]

And what really shocks me is that my country, the US, is apparently on the side of the dictatorship, while the people around me all seem to be on the side of the Egyptians. The US loves the underdog. When the iron curtain fell, we were proud of the will of people to be free. We are ourselves the result of a popular uprising 236 years ago!

Well holy shit!
That sure as hell never happened, the US supporting dictatorships!