I'm worried Saudi Arabia could flare bigtime. And unlike Libya, Obama CAN'T sit on his hands on that one. But he also has to be as delicate as possible in whatever he does. You're not just talking about the single largest oil producer in the world, but also the holiest sites in Islam. I don't think it's necessarily a gamebreaker to have US troops in Saudi Arabia, if they're invited by the House of Saud. Especially since...y'know,
we were there for 15 years or so.
If it's a situation where the Saudis are cracking down on what is perceived to be pro-democracy protestors, and we intervene on behalf of the Saudis....that really doesn't play well to global public opinion. But allowing the Saudi monarchy to fall and be replaced by a big
, while perhaps satisfying liberal public opinion, is scary as hell from a geopolitical standpoint. It could go really well, it could go really badly. And even if a democracy arises, what if this new democracy decides to use their control of oil as a political cattle prod? The Saudis, at least since the 1970's crisis, have been highly reluctant to use oil as an economic weapon. Idealistic young Saudis might not care--if, for instance, they wanted to force the West to really doing something about the Palestinian situation. It's a whole big ball of wax that is very messy and that nobody in charge wants to have to deal with. But I'm guessing we're going to have to deal with it sooner rather than later.
Not a lot of updates this morning. Zawiya looks to be under nominal government control, although by their own admission, "rats" and "saoteurs" still hold pockets of what's left of the city. The info yesterday about a breakthrough near Bin Jawad looks to have been bogus. Things are still bogged down around Bin Jawad.
A no-fly zone is looking more and more likely. The exiled Crown Prince of Libya (whose father was deposed by Qaddafi's coup) has called for a no-fly zone, as have representatives of the Benghazi rebels, and some members of the Arab League. The hope is that with support growing for a no-fly zone, even among other Arab leaders, that China and Russia will be in a tought spot to use their vetos. I think China is liable to abstain rather than damage the relations they've been trying to establish throughout Africa. Qaddafi has already stated that Libya will fight back against any no-fly zone, which means it would turn into more or less an open war against the Libyan Airforce and AA sites, if they choose to oppose it.
Interestingly, the prospect of a military operation is putting Labour in Britain in the position of feebly trying to claim "the Libyan rebels don't want us involved", despite open statements by the NLC to the contrary -- because they want to oppose Cameron but are left looking like they want to sacrifice the anti-Qaddafi fighters for the sake of opposing Cameron just because they're the opposition. I have to say, the more I see of David Cameron, the more I'm impressed. Not saying that I'd want him as a leader, mind you--just saying that the dude knows how to
Play The Game. Maybe he can teach Obama a few things.