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[Sowelu]

C) Modern warfare tends to rely less on supplies, mostly because it tends to be more short term, nevertheless it is a consideration.

They do still matter when on the move, especially when being cut off from other parts of your own forces.  A fighter who has run out of boolets is a sad fighter, and if you expected to get a new shipment of boolets tomorrow and they don't arrive, you might suddenly be fucked.

[GamerKnight]

I agree with Pnx. Showing the loyalists just how many are against them would crush them. Maybe a large suicidal mob? Or maybe a big blimp, broadcasting on a TV screen on the side video from the uprisings.

[RedKing]

Whoever said supplies aren't important is about as wrong as could be. The rebels are running dangerously low on fuel. Remember, they're waging their war in a fleet of Toyota pickups. All the hit-and-run fighting between Ra's Lanuf and Bin Jawad the last few days, and the fact that they have to drive hundreds of miles to get from Benghazi to the front lines, eats up a lot of gas. Even though they control some major refineries and oil terminals in the East, all the foreign workers who staffed them have been evacuated. Food and medical supplies in the besieged cities of Zawiyah and Misrata are critically low. If you look at the history of the Afrika Korps in WWII fighting in this exact same area, the whole thing came down to logistics and stretched supply lines. Rommel could only push so far, because his supply lines got overextended. Montgomery could only counter-push so far, for the same reason.

Honestly, if NATO/UN wants to help and stick by the weapons embargo and avoid the messiness of a no-fly zone, then start shipping fuel tankers to Benghazi. They're already supposedly in talks to obtain fuel from Italy. (Of course, with domestic fuel prices soaring in many countries, there would be the inevitable backlash by domestic opposition...)

There was some odd dueling reports about Qaddafi supposedly offering to step down in return for immunity from prosecution, but the NLC said they rejected that offer, then later an official told the AFP they were offering that to Qaddafi, then Qaddafi's government denied any such offers had been made in either direction. Not sure what was going on there. And I can't see many of the rebels being willing to accept those terms. They want a free Libya, but they want justice/payback as much as anything.

[MetalSlimeHunt]

Yeah, I think the Benghazi government has made it quite clear that Gaddafi isn't getting out of this alive, no matter what happens.

[olemars]

I think the same fuel crisis will be hitting the regime forces. And they have lots more armored vehicles that are all heavy drinkers. A tank will easily burn two litres of diesel per km. Plus, if you drive a tank along the desert roads from Tripoli to Benghazi it'll probably need a full overhaul when you get there, and Libya doesn't seem to have a lot of tank-transport trailers (and no railways). Gaddafi has ensured his army has as little mobility as possible, which he might be regretting now.

Edit: Gaddafi has another problem in that for every city he holds he needs to leave people there to suppress dissent, while for every city the rebels hold they gain manpower and equipment.

[RedKing]

Yeah, AJE is reporting at least some within the opposition council are offering Qaddafi an exit-door strategy.

Breaking News: Head of opposition council gives Gaddafi 72 hours to step down and says bombing must stop. Mustafa Abdel Jalil, an ex-justice minister, told Al Jazeera

"If he leaves Libya immediately, during 72 hours, and stops the bombardment, we as Libyans will step back from pursuing him for crimes."

Dunno if he's likely to accept, and dunno how much the rebel rank-and-file are likely to accept this as well. Makes me wonder if the opposition council in Benghazi is getting nervous because the western offensive is stalling out around Bin Jawad.

Airstrikes around Ra's Lanuf have died down because of the weather (Mother Nature implemented her own no-fly zone).

[Taricus]

Even nature wants Gaddafi out 

[Phmcw]

How much fuel does an airfighter consume? Does he have much reserve? Is it the same kind as civilian aircraft?

[RedKing]

How much fuel does an airfighter consume? Does he have much reserve? Is it the same kind as civilian aircraft?

1. Depends on the model, throttle setting and how well-maintained the engine is (which I'm assuming would not be very well).
2. No idea, but he does still control the main airbase in Libya (Okba ibn Nafi AB), which had the lion's share of aircraft and supplies.
3. Military aviation in most of the world burns JP-4, which is more or less interchangeable with a commercial fuel known as Jet-B. However, Jet-B is typically only used in cold-weather regions because it's more dangerous (but has better performance in cold temperature). Most commerical jets (and especially those in a climate like Libya) would use Jet-A, which isn't going to be very effective in a military jet engine. You *can* run it, but thrust and performance is going to be poor.


EDIT: He may already be running low, considering that helicopters have seen so much use despite the rebels' heavy use of AA guns at the front, and the fact that accounts seem to indicate that despite having 130 MiG-23's, they're not being used. Now this could just be because they're mothballed and he basically doesn't have enough parts to keep them running, or it could be to save fuel.

[olemars]

He doesn't have a lot of aircraft suitable for ground attack. Plus the air force is suffering from the same fragmented organization as the rest of the libyan military, which means that the only units available for attacks towards the east are the ones at the Sirte airbase. He might also be low on pilots. The crew of the last aircraft shot down are even reported to have had syrian passports.

The depressing news of the day is that az-Zawiyah seems to have been leveled by artillery and tanks. We're talking of a city of 200,000 inhabitants.

[RedKing]

The depressing news of the day is that az-Zawiyah seems to have been leveled by artillery and tanks. We're talking of a city of 200,000 inhabitants.

Yeah, I just saw that. This could be the casus belli neede for a no-fly zone. Foreign intelligence and satellite imagery should be able to confirm destruction of that scale. If true, if Qaddafi was willing to level the fourth-largest city in his own country, that's sufficient justification for UN/NATO military action, IMHO. As well as a visit to the Hague. 

[Puzzlemaker]

Where did you get that news from?  Link?

I was really rooting for az-Zawiyah...

[DJ]

Levelling a city doesn't imply it's fall. See Stalingrad, or Sarajevo for a more recent example. If anything, it makes things even harder for armour.

[olemars]

Reuters article.
Sky News article. Sky News has a reporter on the ground in az-Zawiyah as well.

Yes, rebels still hold it, but the destruction sounds massive. A guardian journo who got close but not into the city said there were lots of Grad launchers (think stalin organ) on the outskirts. They're also suggesting Gaddafi is desperate to retake it due to lack of fuel and az-Zawiyah has the only decent oil refinery near Tripoli.

On a positive note, rebels from southern mountain towns are doing successful raids against Gaddafist units between the mountains and az-Zawiyah, which might ease the pressure a bit.

[RedKing]

BBC, al-Jazeera and Feb17.info are all reporting eyewitness accounts that Az-Zawiyah is being just....obliterated. 50 tanks reportedly shelling the town, sounds like they're just systematically saturating city blocks with bullets and shells and bombs then moving on to the next one.

Here's Sky News' report. They're the only English language outlet that I know of that has someone on the ground in Zawiyah.


EDIT: Ninja'd. And DJ, maybe they don't hold it, but it still means a shitload of people are probably dead.