From what I gather, you're making a wrong assumption right from the start: you say that you're not observing the universe from any one of the dots, rather you're somewhere outside the expanding universe looking at the stars. This makes no sense, as you'd have to occupy some fifth(or fourth spatial) dimension to do that, and needless to say, you never will.
Imagine the balloon example - for as long as you're a 2D creature living on the 2D space of the balloon's surface, it doesn't make any sense to you to name a point outside your 2D universe that you could call its center. As long as you're bound to those two dimensions it just doesn't make any sense to ask questions like "where does the balloon start" or "from which point does it come from".
Always, you have to observe the universe from a point in space within the universe.
If you do that, then applying the principle of expanding space to your thought experiments will always give you the same results: everything is receeding from you, the observer, wherever you are, and the farther the object is, the faster the recession, with all vectors pointing outwards from the point of the observation.
This is exactly what we observe, and it's exactly what you'd observe when imagining that you're confined to the 2D space of the balloon.
Here, let me activate my uber-paint-powers:
You're at the green dot, and the blue dots are the stars you see in the sky.
A & B are the angles that separate the stars as you observe them. If they don't change then the stars appear to be stuck in their corresponding spots.
As you can see, if you increase all the distances between objects equally, the relative positions of the stars will remain unchanged.
All the velocity vectors in that picture are colinear with the distances, and point towards whichever of the dots you occupy when making the measurements.
The cartesian system of coordinates is very useful to testing this. Choose some arbitraty number of points on the plane(or in 1D, or in 3D) and measure all the distances between those points. Now multiply all the coordinates by some constant(like 2 or 10 for the ease of calculations), and measure all the distances again. You'll notice that for each point you chose, the distances to it's neighbours increased in such a way, that the farther the point, the further it moved away. Also, all the displacement vectors that you draw will point outwards from any one of the points that you choose.
Using the cartesian coordinate system it's also easy to show that the angles between the points remain constant as you expand the space between them(multiply the coordinates), which reflects the largely static situation of the objects in the sky.
I'm sure with enough information it can be calculated but it's certainly not simple geometry.
Eh, sure it is, in principle. Same as you try and understand physics while imagining weightless pulleys and dragless surfaces.