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[Sowelu]

So, to eliminate the Seoul threat, we would need a massive refugee flood to southern South Korea.

NK military doesn't really like/trust/care about its own citizens that much.  Remember:  At the DMZ, the SK military faces north to make sure the NK military doesn't cross the line.  The NK military faces north to make sure NK civilians don't cross the line...

[darkrider2]

@: Invading North Korea

1. No doubt the US could do it with or without help from any other country.
2. It would not be a quickly won war, it would be similar to the first Korean war, jungle warfare in land they know better and have extremely fortified.
3. The population of Korea wouldn't like us there, this is a country run by fear, a North Korean that chooses to help the US troops could very well end up tortured and his whole family murdered. Its not because they hate us, but they hate having to choose a side.
4. Despite our technological advantage, we can't just full on scorch the earth. We have to consider civilians, yeah we could napalm carpet bomb and nerve gas strike them, but collateral damage would be too high. And the North Korean military would know this, civilians = shields. We've come a long way from wearing color coded uniforms and standing in open fields firing at each other.


@: Actually doing it.

Doubt it. After their stunt, North Korea is basically saying "haha you can't do anything about it!" while they have Seoul dangling over a fire pit. They're also probably feeling pretty badass thinking, see they really can't touch us!

The only possible thing that would cause an inevitable steamrolling would be if North Korea does something that absolutely crosses the line, they need to do something bigger (and directed at Americans) before the mass media starts making noise. Otherwise China, as the unfortunate neighbor, would take action instead of us.

~Darkrider2

[ChairmanPoo]

http://www.cfr.org/publication/11097/chinanorth_korea_relationship.html

[Azzuro]

The only possible thing that would cause an inevitable steamrolling would be if North Korea does something that absolutely crosses the line, they need to do something bigger (and directed at Americans) before the mass media starts making noise. Otherwise China, as the unfortunate neighbor, would take action instead of us.

As I said earlier in the thread, the chances of China firing the first shot in another Korean War would be extremely low. For one, there's the inevitable refugee problem that would result from millions of poor peasants fleeing north. There's also the fact that North Korean nukes, as few as there may be, could be used to target major Chinese cities, even Beijing. Besides, when China wins, it is unlikely that the UN would allow them to keep North Korea as territorial gains, instead opting for a unified Korea under Seoul. The Chinese don't like North Korea since their first atomic tests, but the reason why they supply aid is to ensure regional stability. Americans may not think much of an invasion, but China values stability, especially when it's on their borders.

Besides, I think you all might be underestimating North Korea's military capabilities. North Korea might have 'only' 1 million men on active duty, but they have trained most of the population in warfare, meaning that the resistance movement would be just as strong as the army. Also, most of these people have lived their entire lives hearing North Korean propaganda, and it is very unlikely that they would view an invading army as 'liberators'.

[Sir Finkus]

Besides, I think you all might be underestimating North Korea's military capabilities. North Korea might have 'only' 1 million men on active duty, but they have trained most of the population in warfare, meaning that the resistance movement would be just as strong as the army. Also, most of these people have lived their entire lives hearing North Korean propaganda, and it is very unlikely that they would view an invading army as 'liberators'.

Exactly.  A North Korean war would make Iraq look like candyland.  If it turns hot, this won't be a few days of "shock and awe" on Msnbc, then a few thousand casualties.  We'd be fighting a disciplined, fortified, and heavily indoctrinated military.  If we go the "hearts and minds" route by giving people food aid and such, expect lies about it being poisoned (they may even poison it themselves).  These people have probably been told their entire lives that every problem in the country is due to the west oppressing it.  I would expect the same level of fanaticism that the Japanese had in WW2.

[The Doctor]

More-so, because the Japanese had like 20 years of a military authoritarian, and NK has had 52 years.

[Gorjo MacGrymm]

I have been doing my best to avoid this thread, but too much bad information has been tossed about concerning N Koreas artillery and capability to strike Seoul.  They only have a single type of piece capable, and very few of them are in range of Seoul.  They are designed to be mobile, but the current locations are well documented by all concerened goverments.  Satellites are a wonderful thing.

Secondly, Iraqi's did welcome the US, flag waving and calling the US liberators.  No staging necessary.  The insurgency was mainly Iran/Syria motivated and it started well after Iraq was "conquered".  To even say the US and allies are still fighting the Iraqi war is a joke.  They are at war with Syria/Iran by proxy. and Russia/China by sub-proxy, since they backup Iran and Syria.

China is most likely behind the shelling of the island in South Korea (IMO).  They are beginning to exert their military influence in the region and are testing the US's resolve to protect Korea and Japan and what resources we might bring to bear.  If the Korea's were to return to war, the North would immediatly be protected by China, who is deeply in bed with the Norths government so that they can stripmine all the coal out of N Korea.  On a side note, China hates the North Korean peoples and could care less if they died whole sale in a war.

For those who want info on the Norths ability to make war:
http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?162240-Bluffer-s-Guide-North-Korea-strikes!-%282009%29

Full Disclosure:
I spent 1.5 years in South Korea while serving in the US military.
I am hawkish by nature.
More to come if i think of it.

[Leafsnail]

Secondly, Iraqi's did welcome the US, flag waving and calling the US liberators.  No staging necessary.  The insurgency was mainly Iran/Syria motivated and it started well after Iraq was "conquered".  To even say the US and allies are still fighting the Iraqi war is a joke.  They are at war with Syria/Iran by proxy. and Russia/China by sub-proxy, since they backup Iran and Syria.

...?

And, uh

I’ve been trawling through Google Earth imagery looking logging visible North Korean artillery sites. From this analysis it is apparent that there is a clear pattern of distribution with several concentrated ‘belts’ of positions:

...Yeah, I don't think that's good enough, really.  It's hardly rocket science to put an artillery piece in a warehouse.

[RedWarrior0]

Or a cave.

So, if North Korea gets nukes, the UN demands they destroy them, and they refuse, can we go Scorched Earth on them? Please? No? Darn.

Also, China can't have a war with the US. That's $8+ trilllion guaranteed down the drain. Plus, the effect on them would be similar to the American embargo before 1812, where it will hurt them as much as/more than the rest of the world.

[Sowelu]

Okay, it's good to get information from people who actually know what's going on over there.  Thank you!

[Mangled]

Wait, who said jungle warfare?
Korea's mountainous is it not?

[x2yzh9]

Okay, it's good to get information from people who actually know what's going on over there.  Thank you!

No idea if that was sarcasm or not, but I'm pretty sure Gorjo knows more than us considering he's spent 1.5 years over there.

[Sowelu]

That was the polar opposite of sarcasm.  I'm glad to have real information.

[Criptfeind]

...Yeah, I don't think that's good enough, really.  It's hardly rocket science to put an artillery piece in a warehouse.

His own numbers on how many they have: 1,300

Number he "found": 400

I don't think that is a good place to look for info.

Still, it is good to hear from someone who may know what is really going on.

[ChairmanPoo]

Secondly, Iraqi's did welcome the US, flag waving and calling the US liberators.  No staging necessary.  The insurgency was mainly Iran/Syria motivated and it started well after Iraq was "conquered".  To even say the US and allies are still fighting the Iraqi war is a joke.  They are at war with Syria/Iran by proxy. and Russia/China by sub-proxy, since they backup Iran and Syria.

It amuses me to find people who, after seven years of quagmire and guerrilla, still buy this kind of stuff.