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[Tellemurius]

we got problems with invading NK, for instance the allies of NK: china and Russia?, would have to be convinced that innocent lives will be spared and it will be a swift victory. Even we do get their approval we will have some limited terms like, no carpet bombing, razing villages, burning shit, this one gotta go with precision strikes and blitzkrieg style warfare (its real, stfu you dumb professors) Once we put a cap in Kim's ass then we might as well give China control to restructure the country since they are good at assimilating the people.

[DJ]

Or just tell China that you'll look the other way if they invade NK.

[RedKing]

Personally, I think that China turning on North Korea would be unlikely at best. Relations between Pyongyang and Beijing appear cordial partially because China is fully aware that North Korea's few nukes could just as easily strike major Chinese cities. The real reason behind China not invading North Korea is because of the subsequent refugee flood north. They either deal with the economic burden of sheltering refugees or ignore them and be shunned by the international community.

Don't kid yourself. If NK ever let the shit actually hit the fan, Koreans would be a minority in North Korea by nightfall.

I'm worried about this. Lil' Kim loves him some brinksmanship, but this is ballsy even for him. I'm wondering if this is partly because the US reaction to NK's "nuclear revelations" was underwhelming.

NK: Behold!! We have....centrifuges! MUHAHAHAHAHA....
US: Meh. We're irked, but it's not that big of a deal.
NK: Not that big of---HOW DARE THEY??!? Fire at a tiny defenseless island on my signal!

My guess is that next, Kim Jong Il will actually EAT that puppy on live TV to prove how evil he is. And because it's the last source of protein left in North Korea other than Koreans. He's kinda like the Monarch, always coming up with crazy half-assed plans in the hopes that the US will recognize him as our arch-nemesis. And raging when we don't.

[Tellemurius]

remember, minced meat and bread.

[inteuniso]

He's stirring shit up, but if something does happen, it will be S Korea/US/China vs. N Korea.

Mainly because China doesn't want it's economic relationships to get fucked up. It needs Ameribucks.

[Phmcw]

I'm under the impression that you can now fire at an ally of the USA if you're an ally of China. YOU need THEIR bucks. Else it would be south Korea that would be showing its muscles.
I wonder how china will react, but nobody will do ANYTHING without their consent.

[Criptfeind]

Wait, china still likes NK? I thought they disliked them but were not doing anything about it.

[DJ]

I doubt they appreciate having bat-shit crazy neighbours, but I reckon they like that better than pro-USA NK.

[RedKing]

I'm under the impression that you can now fire at an ally of the USA if you're an ally of China. YOU need THEIR bucks. Else it would be south Korea that would be showing its muscles.
I wonder how china will react, but nobody will do ANYTHING without their consent.

I'm not so sure, which is why everyone is kinda on edge now. Russia is seriously pissed at N. Korea (they don't want a hot war on their border), and the South Korean leadership is far less conciliatory than the last few administrations. Lee Myung Bak might actually take this to a whole 'nother level by launching a retaliatory strike beyond the in-kind artillery response, maybe an airstrike on DPRK artillery positions. But if he does, this thing could quickly turn into a serious clusterf**k. North Korea could turn half of Seoul into rubble in hours just with conventional artillery. Doing so would inevitably mean firing on US troops (which is really their whole point -- not to fight off the North Koreans, but to be targets to give us a casus belli), which would trigger US intervention. If the US got seriously involved, I imagine the Japanese would sign on for a piece of the action, although that's not a certainty.

It's at that point that Beijing would have to examine the situation and figure out what's in their best interests. My gut feeling is that they would cut off the potential for a hot war on the peninsula by taking out North Korea themselves and making it a protectorate/client state/puppet state/etc. before we even had time to get our carriers in position. And I don't think too many people would protest a Chinese takeover at this point. Saves a lot of cost and grief by the US, Japan, etc. Beijing doesn't particularly want to have to administer North Korea because it's more cost than it's worth, but they want chaos even less.

War on the border is chaos. Millions of refugees fleeing into Dongbei is chaos.

[Nilocy]

China loves NK, it sheltered a load of refugees during the PRC revolts. And supplied the communists with arms and troops which inevitably made them the leading faction in China today.

But saying that, this shit has cause them a lot of issues. Chinas (and Japans) stocks have been falling in fears of a war breaking out. I sincerely doubt China would go against the worlds backing of South Korea in this, since China pretty much has money everywhere in the sane world...

[Criptfeind]

China loves NK, it sheltered a load of refugees during the PRC revolts. And supplied the communists with arms and troops which inevitably made them the leading faction in China today.

That was a really long time ago, and yes in the Korean war they were on the same side, but I meant now a days.

But you are right, I don't think they will risk it.

[Zangi]

China loves NK, it sheltered a load of refugees during the PRC revolts. And supplied the communists with arms and troops which inevitably made them the leading faction in China today.

That was a really long time ago, and yes in the Korean war they were on the same side, but I meant now a days.

But you are right, I don't think they will risk it.

Though... China has been flexing its own muscle lately. 
Considering the bitching China got for using trade to influence diplomatic policy... The US/other countries don't want to lose the trade partner in China either.  It is not a one way road.

[Azzuro]

Personally, I think that China turning on North Korea would be unlikely at best. Relations between Pyongyang and Beijing appear cordial partially because China is fully aware that North Korea's few nukes could just as easily strike major Chinese cities. The real reason behind China not invading North Korea is because of the subsequent refugee flood north. They either deal with the economic burden of sheltering refugees or ignore them and be shunned by the international community.

Don't kid yourself. If NK ever let the shit actually hit the fan, Koreans would be a minority in North Korea by nightfall.

My point was that North Korea wouldn't fire on China because they know that the Chinese army could crush them in days, and because China is their only 'ally' in the entire region. China wouldn't fire on North Korea because of nuclear reprisal and the refugee problem. Basically, if the Korean war were to re-break out, the most China would do (or not do, in this case) would be to shoot refugees coming over their border. There seems to be a misconception that China would side with North Korea against South Korea - the only remotely likely situation in which they would do so would be if the US or UN didn't back South Korea.

I'm under the impression that you can now fire at an ally of the USA if you're an ally of China. YOU need THEIR bucks. Else it would be south Korea that would be showing its muscles.
I wonder how china will react, but nobody will do ANYTHING without their consent.

China and the US are not necessarily in opposition - they are pretty much co-dependent on each other through trade. Besides, even 'traditional' US allies like Japan are rethinking their relationship with the US - there's a lot of feeling in the region that China is the next rising power, and that being an ally of the US might hinder their Chinese diplomacy.

Fakeedit: beaten by 5 replies

[RedKing]

There's also this to consider: China has been constantly looking for ways to showcase its role as a preeminent and ostensibly benevolent world power (the Olympics, the Shanghai Expo, sending warships to combat piracy in the Gulf of Aden).

What better way to say, "Look! We're powerful and we're one of the good guys!" than by taking out a regime which is almost universally reviled and doing so while the US is still busy lacing up its boots and figuring out if it even CAN respond?

Pyongyang may have outlived its usefulness.

[Criptfeind]

I am happy China wants people to think they are nice. They may become nice if they act hard enugh.

I just hope they do not get in a shit storm when they crash.